Yup. Machine learning is great. Using a predictive text keyboard with a large training set for EVERYTHING is not great.

I would trust AI to beat money managers in the stock market because it was proved a chimp throwing darts beats experienced money managers.

Driving trains requires skill.

... you know that goldfish, randomly swimming to one side or another of a fish tank...

... you know they perform better at picking stocks that will go up or down in the next quarter than nearly all professional hedge fund managers, right?

In fact, this old expiriment was rerun fairly recently... ironically, with an AI being used to simulate a goldfish, in a scenario similar to that old study from some decades back.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/tts0a4/some_theories_on_how_the_goldfish_was_able_to/

The goldfish outperformed both WSB... and the Nasdaq.

I am literally not even joking when I tell you that a goldfish will probably outperform an AI at at least fairly short term stock picking.

See, there is a fundamental problem to predicting the market.

You have to have a strategy by which you do this.

If you employ this strategy... people will reverse engineer it and figure out how it works.

Then, everyone does that strategy.

Then, the strategy does not work any more, 'nonsense' begins to happen.

If you are curious about the mechanics that cover that whole, meta sort of process, look into game theory under conditions of imperfect information and information assymetry.

Its... basically a robust mathematical approach to simulating the flux of 'animal spirits' within a market... or in modern vernacular, 'vibes'.

Even then, and as I wrote in another post, a custom trading NN might be working a strategy which is fine under normal market conditions whilst leading to massive losses if those conditions change (i.e. "picking nickels in front of a steamroller") and because of the black-box nature of how Neural Networks work and their tendency to end up with the outputs being very convoluted derivations of the inputs (I expect even more so in Markets, were the obvious strategies that humans can easilly spot have long been arbitraged away, so any patterns such an NN spots during training will be so convoluted as to not be detectable by most humans), nobody will spot the risky nature of that strategy until getting splattered.

Neural Networks working in predicting market movements are, unlike a predictive text keyboard or even an automated train driver, not operating in a straightforward mainly non-adversarial enviroment.

I still wouldn't, because the stock market is already full of algorithmic trading and so you'd have to believe yours was better than the big boys out there.

LLMs can help with trading. As an example, if you can read news articles 1000x faster than a human, then you can make appropriate market decisions that much faster and make profit off that. These need not be very intelligent market decisions. Any idiot and every LLM knows perfectly well what stocks to buy or sell when there is an announcement for tariff on product xyz.

In case you didn't know, DeepSeek was made by a trading company.

No you would not, because you can do that at any time

true; could only get "AI" to do useful stuff when i gave it specialized knowledge on the topic i wanted it to help me with; if i asked outside this given scope information would go to shit tho.