You can’t use statistics to evaluate what would have happened to an individual. Someone’s personal behavior matters more than what statistically ‘should’ have happened to them. It also depends on where they were located; while 10% of young gay men in the US as a whole died of AIDS, over 60% of young male deaths in San Francisco at the height of the crisis were due to AIDS.

Perhaps I exaggerate, but this person was in a geographic region particularly hard-hit and turns out is really into some of the dangrous behaviour (adjusting filters as part of coming out is, evidently, difficult).

In 1990, AIDS caused 61% of all deaths of men aged 25-44 (born 1946-1965) in San Francisco, 35% in New York, 51% in Ft. Lauderdale, 32% in Boston, 33% in Washington, DC, 39% in Seattle, 34% in Dallas, 38% in Atlanta, 43% in Miami, and 25% in Portland, Oregon.

Also: https://academic.oup.com/gerontologist/article-abstract/52/2/255/613902

Yeah, we know anecdotally that it was horrific and that the government was indifferent at best, but I'd like to quantify it as well.