Tinidril comments on no increase in radiation following US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear

[–] Tinidril@midwest.social 2 points 1 year ago (6 children)

they're not working on the other parts as far as we know

I agree, but we wouldn't know. Iran is a modern world power that's perfectly capable of doing things in secret that don't fit in a garage.

We know with certainty that Iran has enriched a stockpile of 60% uranium. That's not sufficient to say that nuclear capabilities are imminent, but it's enough to say that they have long term goals in that direction. (Which makes perfect sense, and should not itself be provocative).

You also need someone who understands the engineering well enough to actually do it, particularly without testing

The US did it 75 years ago with no instruction book. Iran's population is about the same as the US's was at the time, and they have the benefit of all those years of manufacturing advancements. It's borderline racist to assume this would be a problem for them.

They don't have icbms

They have IRBMs, and Israel has been far from 100% successful at shooting them down. That's with heavier payloads that have to reach the ground before detonating. Their IRBMs also include a small number of more modern systems that are nearly impossible for Israel to shoot down.

they could just lie and say they have it

Like in high school? "I swear, she used her tongue and everything!". I'm not so sure that's going to buy them much leverage. (Which would be the real point of having them.)

Do Russia and China have working nukes? What about India and Pakistan? Do the US nukes even still work? No one is sure.

I don't think there is any plausible doubt about any of those but Russia. Even Russia is still certain to have some functional nukes. The only doubts are about how many. Also, Fission bombs have a really long shelf life. It's fusion bombs that require tons of ongoing and expensive maintenance.

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[–] theneverfox@pawb.social 1 point 1 year ago (5 children)

The US did it 75 years ago with no instruction book. Iran's population is about the same as the US's was at the time, and they have the benefit of all those years of manufacturing advancements. It's borderline racist to assume this would be a problem for them.

The US did it, with most of the world's best scientists and engineers in all related fields, in a huge research compound in the middle of the most defensible continent on an infinite budget

More importantly, the US could test at will. Iran can't test their work without starting a war.

I could go through the other points, but I don't think you understand the game theory elements of mutually assured destruction well enough to have that talk yet...

But you sum it up, the nukes themselves don't matter, literally, they don't matter at all. The threat of potential nukes is what matters, and that's why multiple countries spend billions to maintain a nuclear triad

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[–] Tinidril@midwest.social 1 point 1 year ago (4 children)

I'll stress again, the US did it with no instruction book. Most of those great scientists were theoretical physiscists. There is nothing theoretical that needs doing. Many were involved in crunching numbers. Computers do that now. The US did get to test, and tested exactly once. Testing of components prior to that is not something that would be particularly detectable. The challenges today are just about the precision engineering and manufacturing.

I get that you think that countries routinely neglect maintenance of their nuclear arsenals just because using them is not necessary to MAD. It's not that complicated, it's just wrong. The US and Russia used to do regular inspections of each-others weapons to maintain MAD. That wasn't all that long ago. There is no telling when such an agreement might come into play again which would greatly disadvantage countries not keeping things up. We also know for certain, because of those inspections, that the US and Russia had established proper maintenance routines. There is reason to believe that Russia may not have kept it all up, but it's really doubtful that the US abandoned that maintenance.

If a non-nuclear power like Iran were to suddenly declare that they are now a nuclear power, some amount of proof would be required before it was taken seriously. To think otherwise isn't ignorant, it's insane. I have to wonder why you think they haven't tried your clever hack already.

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[–] theneverfox@pawb.social 1 point 1 year ago (3 children)

I'm sure you're not an engineer now lol

Do you think the physics of nukes is widely shared, accurately? That no one spread a few incorrect formulas to reduce proliferation? If you can't test along the way, you need to know exactly how it works.

Without help or the ability to experiment, they're doing it on hard mode. These are worse conditions with less funding... The only advantage they have is knowing for sure it's possible

And as far as MAD... Do you think Israel has ever been inspected? Of course not. Because the game has changed

Optics are more important than reality. Right now, the intelligence community doesn't think they're close to a bomb. If that opinion were reversed, that's just as good as having a bomb

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[–] Tinidril@midwest.social 1 point 1 year ago* (2 children)

Do you think the physics of nukes is widely shared, accurately?

What nukes? They aren't all the same, and plain old fission bombs are not actually that complicated. Iran is also an ally of Russia and North Korea, both of which have been in the nuclear club for quite some time now. Fusion bombs are a hell of a lot more complicated. Getting optimum yields from either is complicated. There are no secrets at this point about how to make a minimally functional (as used in Japan) fission bomb.

And as far as MAD... Do you think Israel has ever been inspected?

Israel doesn't even admit to having them. They don't need them for MAD. Israel's promise of overwhelming retaliation comes from it's alliance with the US. They have nukes because they want the option. If the US ever abandoned Israel, I guarantee they would let the world know they have them, and they would do a test, or they would have someone inspect them, just like every other nuclear power did before using them as a deterrent.

Right now, the intelligence community doesn't think they're close to a bomb. If that opinion were reversed, that's just as good as having a bomb.

Or it's an invitation to be bombed and/or invaded before they get there.

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[–] theneverfox@pawb.social 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

Okay... Now I think we're starting to coverage

Yes, what nuke design exactly? You need someone who can tell you that, then follow all the way through while never testing your work

Israel does get a pass... Because people believe they have nukes. What kind? Who knows, it literally doesn't matter because everyone believes it

It's both way simpler and way more complicated than you seen to think

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[–] Tinidril@midwest.social 1 point 1 year ago

Nobody told the US how to do it or handed them a design. They did do a test, but it worked on the very first try. All Iran would have to do is do as well as America did and, despite what you think, knowledge of how to make it is readily available.

The hardest part are the extremely high tolerance detonators. They can test those in secret all day long. That's where 75 years of progress in engineering makes the job a whole lot easier too. Modern electronics will also make it a lot easier for them to know when they get it right, without having to set off a nuke.

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