I think you have a good argument here. But I'm not sure where this is going to lead. Your argument applies to neural networks in general. And we have those since the 1950s. Subsequently, we went through several "AI winter"s and now we have some newer approach which seemed to lead somewhere. But I've watched Richard Sutton's long take on LLMs and it's not clear to me whether LLMs are going to scale past what we see as of today. Ultimately they have severe issues to scale, it's still not aimed at true understanding or reasonable generalization, that's just a weird side effect, when the main point is to generate plausible sounding text (...pictures etc). LLMs don't have goals and they don't learn while running and have all these weird limitations which make generative AI unalike other (proper) types of reinforcement learning. And these are fundamental limitations, I don't think this can be changed without an entirely new concept.
So I'm a bit unsure if the current take on AI is the ultimate breakthrough. It might be a dead end as well and we're still in need of a hypothetical new concept to do proper reasoning and understanding for more complicated tasks....
But with that said, there's surely a lot of potential left in LLMs no matter if they scale past today or not. All sorts of interaction with natural language, robotics, automation... It's certainly crazy to see what current AI is able to do, considering the weird approach it is. And I'll agree that we're at surface level. Everything is still hyped to no end. What we'd really need to do is embed it into processes and the real world and see how it performs there. And that'd need to be a broad and scientific measurement. We occasionally get some studies on how AI helps companies, or it wastes their developer's time. But I don't think we have a good picture yet.