The simple fact is that Russian oil production hasn't actually been impacted the way Kiev is posturing. Rather than "Putin math," the idea that production is in shambles is "Kiev math."

Pinprick attacks on refineries don't actually have a big impact. They get a lot of media, but they don't actually cause major disruptions for more than a few days. If you look at the size of oil refineries you'll quickly realize that a single drone isn't going to do much to them. This sort of propaganda is aimed at people who have no clue how this stuff actually works, and just look at pictures of smoke and think Russian oil production has completely stalled while in reality it's largely unaffected.

This numbers in the article are a third of the numbers from production last year. They are importing gas and there are queues in the capital for motorists.