So I actually do think this guy is completely correct.

What everyone needs to understand is that a (for now hypothetical) ground invasion of Iran would go very, very differently from both Iraq and Afghanistan, because of two specific factors: geography and population.

Geography

I’m oversimplifying for brevity, but the terrain is rather akin to Afghanistan. Most of the major population centers are in mountainous terrain.

This would not be like watching armored cavalry blitz through the Iraqi desert. This would be watching armored columns getting snarled up in choke points and taking focused fire and heavy losses. Seriously: it would be way more akin to the showing Russia made in the opening days of the active phase of the Ukraine war (2022) than the opening phases of the Iraq war.

Population

We all saw how difficult it is to fight a dedicated and hardy insurgent force in Afghanistan (twice, really - once before with the Soviets, too).

Now multiply that by ten - or maybe even a hundred. No, I’m not exaggerating. Iran’s raw population (~80m) is larger than Iraq and Afghanistan combined. Their military, by size, is just under a million men, the 9th largest in the world. This number does not include the Basij, which, though “only” composed of militia volunteers, adds between 600,000 and twenty five million (yes, really; no, not a typo) potential combatants/partisans/insurgents/resistance fighters.

And then there’s the discipline and training and fanaticism, which for the first two are likely markedly better than Iraq’s in both the gulf war and the Iraq war (and, you know, they were watching, and so probably adapted their doctrine over the years too), and much closer to Afghan insurgents in terms of fanaticism. So, you’ve got a rather big population, with an absolute shitload of pissed off and motivated militants. And the US and Israel seem to be not caring that much about civilian collateral damage and casualties - definitely not the way to “win hearts and minds”, regardless of how brutal the current/for-now-ongoing Iranian regime is.

Overall

A concerted ground campaign in Iran would be like trying to invade a very large version of Switzerland, in many respects. And I am fairly certain it would rapidly deplete weapon stocks of both the US and Israel, in addition to being extraordinarily bloody - not to mention, the very real prospect of the conflict spiraling out of control into WW3.

And don’t forget: despite their lack of action thus far, Iran is technically still a client state of Russia. And Russia surely wouldn’t appreciate a massive and open-ended “Institute for Peace” (emphasis on an absolutely brutal amount of sarcasm here) that not only takes a primary client state off the board, but also is being done right across their border. And China gets (or got…? Implications are still actively shaking out at this point) a ton of their oil from Iran - remember, Imperial Japan executed Pearl Harbor largely in response to US intransigence around the oil embargo they had put in force in 1940 (technically, an expansion of earlier embargoes, but this was a major geopolitical tipping point that led to war). If this ends up throttling the Chinese economy (or looking like it will) I do not expect the PRC to take that lying down.

This entire shitshow is massively geopolitically destabilizing in the broadest sense of the term.

And that is why I am rather concerned this will, in time, spiral into WW3.

Release the Epstein files and remove Israel’s leverage

I think this war is as dumb and pointless as the next person but obviously Iran would say this. It’s not like they’re going to publicly broadcast to the world how weak they are and that they absolutely could not hold off an American ground invasion

If America tries to do a ground invasion, any of my anxieties about the possible outcome of the war will be put to rest. America will lose handily if they try to go in.

The Iranian military will lose to the US forces, but the ensuing partisan war will kick the Amerikans square in the nutsack. WTF, what about the Israelis, they should lead the charge and be first ones storming the beaches.

"Try that shit on my M. Bison!!"

America is designed to fight, though not necessarily win, a third generation war. What Iran will counter with is fourth generation war.

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't air dominance the US military's strong suit?

It's not like he'd say anything else?

Zero sympathy from me for the invaders that die