Generative AI was a scam
So is Substack...
Generative AI was a scam
So is Substack...
In other news the sky is blue, enjoy your hollowed out economy.
Don't worry, we will all be paying for it when the AI jenga tower will fall.
Businesses can make huge investments mistakes and then they will ask for help from the government that will have to save them to prevent total collapse and to save jobs. So we will pay for a few dumb CEOs like we always do.
And those CEOs will go off with their vast piles of money to make the same mistakes again, since the message they get is that this behaviour will be rewarded.
The government may not be able to bail these companies out. The scale is even bigger than the housing crisis of 2008, and trust in the current administration is basically zero. I think the most we can hope for is the LLM companies (think OpenAI and Anthropic), and the companies whose services are effectively wrappers for LLMs, and probably Oracle (with its negative cash flow and astronomical debt) all go away. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google probably survive, with some high profile bloodletting, senior executives being purged by their boards. Apple has been the least bullish on AI, so they’re probably more or less safe and the biggest change will be new OS versions that don’t refer to Apple Intelligence. Facebook is structured in such a way that Zucc can’t be removed by the board, so who knows how that plays out.
Palantir and their ilk will likely get whatever they need to survive unless the midterms bring in a shockingly progressive group that cares about people’s privacy and removes funding for mass surveillance.
YEAH NO FUCKING SHIT
Just like blockchain
Just like NFTs
Silicon Valley ran out of actual things to sell around 10 years ago and have just been shoveling shit at us.
Yes Gen AI is definately the overhyped, now failed kickstarter of the century.
I'm frustrated at the "was" in the title... Like we aren't still sinking on that awful ship right now, like it is all behind us... But it isn't. :(
Okay, is that actually wonderful news? If it’s doing nothing for the GDP, and the GDP went up, something is still causing that, right? So does that mean the economy is in less of a bubble than we’d thought, that we’re actually growing despite AI?
But, have you considered AI-blockchain NFTs?
I'm never wrong about this stuff.
LLMs are not capable of creating anything, including code. They are enormous word-matching search engines that try to find and piece together the closest existing examples of what is being requested. If what you're looking for is reasonably common, that may be useful. If what you're looking for is obscure, you may get things that don't apply. And the LLM cannot tell the difference. They can be useful but, unlike an LLM, you need to understand the context to use them safely.
I think the most interesting thing about LLMs is actually what they tell us about the repetitive nature of most of what we do.
LLMs are not capable of creating anything, including code. They are enormous word-matching search engines that try to find and piece together the closest existing examples of what is being requested. If what you’re looking for is reasonably common, that may be useful.
Just for common understanding, you're making blanket statements about LLMs as though those statements apply to all LLMs. You're not wrong if you're generally speaking of the LLM models deployed for retail consumption like, as an example, ChatGPT. None of what I'm saying here is a defense about how these giant companies are using LLMs today. I'm just posting from a Data Science point of view on the technology itself.
However, if you're talking about the LLM technology, as in a Data Science view, your statements may not apply. The common hyperparameters for LLMs are to choose the most likely matches for the next token (like the ChatGPT example), but there's nothing about the technology that requires that. In fact, you can set a model to specifically exclude the top result, or even choose the least likely result. What comes out when you set these hyperparameters is truly strange and looks like absolute garbage, but it is unique. The result is something that likely hasn't existed before. I'm not saying this is a useful exercise. Its the most extreme version to illustrate the point. There's also the "temperature" hyperparamter which introduces straight up randomness. If you crank this up, the model will start making selections with very wide weights resulting in pretty wild (and potentially useless) results.
What many Data Scientists trying to make LLMs generate something truly new and unique is to balance these settings so that new useful combinations come out without it being absolute useless garbage.
I write software for a living and I have worked directly with LLM backend code. You aren't wrong about the exceptions, but I think they actually reinforce my main point. If you play with the parameters you can make all kinds of things happen, but all of those things are still driven by the existing information it already has or can find. It can mash things together in random new ways, but it will always work with components that already exist. There is no awareness of context or meaning that would allow it to make intelligent choices about what it mashes together. That will always be driven by the patterns it already knows, positively or negatively.
It's like doing chemistry by picking random bottles from the shelf and dumping them into a beaker to see what happens. You could make an amazing discovery that way, but the chances of it happening are very, very low. And even if it does happen, there's an excellent chance that you won't recognize it.
I'm in favor of using LLMs for tasks that involve large-scale data analysis. They can be quite helpful, as long as the user understands their limitations and performs due diligence to validate the results.
Unfortunately what we are mostly seeing are cases where LLMs are used to generate boilerplate text or code that is assembled from a vast collection of material that someone who actually knew what they were doing had previously created. That kind of reuse is not inherently bad, but it should not be confused with what competent writers or coders do. And if LLMs really do take over a lot of routine daily tasks from people, the pool of approaches to those tasks will stagnate, and eventually degenerate, as LLMs become the primary sources of each others' solutions.
LLMs may very well change the world, but not it in the ways most people expect. Companies that have invested heavily in them are pushing them as the solutions to the wrong problems.
If you play with the parameters you can make all kinds of things happen, but all of those things are still driven by the existing information it already has or can find. It can mash things together in random new ways, but it will always work with components that already exist.
Or purely randomness, but the spirit of your point is sound. And if it is randomness it may be unique output, but the utility of that result may be zero.
There is no awareness of context or meaning that would allow it to make intelligent choices about what it mashes together. That will always be driven by the patterns it already knows, positively or negatively.
100% AGREE. LLMs are not "thinking". LLMs are NOT the HAL 9000 from the movie 2001: A space odyssey
It’s like doing chemistry by picking random bottles from the shelf and dumping them into a beaker to see what happens. You could make an amazing discovery that way, but the chances of it happening are very, very low. And even if it does happen, there’s an excellent chance that you won’t recognize it.
100% AGREE.
I’m in favor of using LLMs for tasks that involve large-scale data analysis. They can be quite helpful, as long as the user understands their limitations and performs due diligence to validate the results.
Unfortunately what we are mostly seeing are cases where LLMs are used to generate boilerplate text or code that is assembled from a vast collection of material that someone who actually knew what they were doing had previously created. That kind of reuse is not inherently bad, but it should not be confused with what competent writers or coders do. And if LLMs really do take over a lot of routine daily tasks from people, the pool of approaches to those tasks will stagnate, and eventually degenerate, as LLMs become the primary sources of each others’ solutions.
100% agree. The degeneration is already occurring because bad LLM output is being fed back in as authoritative training data resulting in confidently wrong answers being presented as truth. Critical thinking seems to have become an endangered species in the last 20 years and I'm really worried that people are trusting LLM chatbots completely and never challenging the things they output but instead accepting them as fact (and acting on those wrong things!).
LLMs may very well change the world, but not it in the ways most people expect. Companies that have invested heavily in them are pushing them as the solutions to the wrong problems.
I think we have some of the pieces today that will make AI in general more trustworthy in the future. Grounding can go part way to making today's LLMs more trustworthy. If an LLM claims something as fact, it should be able to produce the citation that supports it (outside of LLM output). That source can then be evaluated critically. Today's grounding doesn't go far enough though. An LLM today will say "I got that from HERE" and simply give a document. It won't show the page or line of text and supporting arguments that would justify its arrival at its stated output. It can't do these things today because I just described reasoning which is something an LLM is NOT capable of. So we wait for true AGI instead.
The only "reasoning" I can see behind this is that the tech monopolies are hoping to become seen as "too big to fail". We MUST NOT let that happen. They MUST be allowed to fail.
Can anyone provide an archive link for this? Or tell me how to do it. The gift article embedded won't open.
hey thats why they are pedalling it to india to have the datacenters, india is already cooking and MODI wants to give tax holidays.
What are tax holidays?
Effectively the government paying you to move there by allowing you to not pay any taxes. So if your company is paying $2m/yr in taxes, you're being paid $2m+ to move your operations. You'll lose some of that to construction costs, but you'll likely more than make that up by paying (comparatively to previous employees) slave wages to locals.
It's a thing to encourage foreign investors.
Honestly, if the Modi govt. is still furthering that strategy, I think that they are out of good ideas and should hand over to another.
Will you PLEASE stop saying "coding is a practical use case"? This is the third appeal I've made on this subject. (Do you read your comments?) If you want bug ridden code with security issues which is not extensible and which no-one understands, then sure, it's a practical use case. Just like if you want nonsensical articles with invented facts, then article writing is a practical use case. But as I've pointed out already no reputable editorial is now using LLMs to write their articles. Why is that? Because it obviously doesn't work.
Let's face it the only reason you're saying "coding is a practical use case" is because you yourself don't code, and don't understand it. I can't see another reason why would assume the problems experienced in other domains somehow don't apply to coding. Newsflash: they do. And software engineering definitely doesn't need the slop any more than anyone else. So I hope this is my final appeal: please stop perpetuating this myth. If you want more information on the problems of using LLMs to code, then I can talk in great length about it - feel free to reach out. Thanks...
The point is, there has always been a trade-off between the speed of development and quality of engineering (confidence in the code, robustness of the app etc.) I don't see LLMs as either changing this trade-off or shifting the needle (greater quality in a shorter time), because they are probabilistic and can't be relied upon to produce the best solution - or even a correct solution - every time. So you're going to have to pick your way through every single line it generates in order to have the same confidence you would have if you wrote it - and this is unlikely to save time because understanding someone else's code is always more difficult and time-consuming than writing it yourself. When I hear people say it is "making them 10x more productive" at coding, I think, "and also 10x as unsure what you've actually produced"...
You'll also need to correct it when it does something you don't want. Now this is pretty interesting, if you think about it. Imagine you provide an LLM a prompt, and the LLM produces something but not exactly what you want. What is the advice on this? "Provide a more specific prompt!" Ok, so then we write a more specific prompt - the results are better, but it still falls short. What now? "Keep making the prompt more specific!" Ok but wait - eventually won't I be supplying the same number of tokens to the LLM as it is going to generate as the solution? Because if I'm perfectly specific about what I want, then isn't this just the same as actually writing the solution myself using a computer language? Indeed, isn't this the purpose behind computer languages in the first place?...
We software developers very often pull chunks of code from various locations - not just stackoverflow. Very often they are chunks of code we wrote ourselves, that we then adapt to the new system we are inserting it into. This is great, because we don't need to make an effort to understand the code we're inserting - we already understand it, because we wrote it...
"You should consider combing through Hacker News to see how people are actually making successful use of LLMs" - the problem with this is there are really a lot of hype-driven stories out there that are basically made up. I've caught some that are obvious - e.g. see my comment on this post: https://substack.com/home/post/p-185469925 (archived) - which then makes me quite sceptical of many of the others. I'm not really sure why this kind of fabrication has become so prevalent - I find it very strange - but there's certainly a lot of it going on. At the end of the day I'm going to trust my own experiences actually trying to use these tools, and not stories about them that I can't verify.
~ Tom Gracey
Absolutely... Thank you, from the very depths of my heart and soul... dear Tom Gracey, programmer, artist... for the marvel you do... for the wisest attitude, for the belief in in human... in effort... in art...
Let's face it the only reason you're saying "coding is a practical use case" is because you yourself don't code, and don't understand it.
Usually only the last statement is true.
Just ask those people to read engrish, they'll stand a chance of understanding the issue. It's put together with clues of how it works, and can copypaste pieces, but without the knowledge to string it all together cohesively. Maybe not the best example, but coding is a language like English is a language, and we take a lot of our knowledge for granted when it comes to our intimate relationship with language.
I think there is quite a bit more subtlety than that.
Yes, just asking an LLM, even the latest versions, to write some code goes from “wow, that’s pretty good” to “eh, not great but ok for something I’m going to use once and then not care about” to “fucking terrible” as the size goes up. And all the agents in the world don’t really make it better.
But… there are a few use cases that I have found interesting.
I like to add:
- Do not offer to write code unless the user specifically requests it. You are a teacher and reviewer, not a developer
- Include checks for idiomatic use of language features when reviewing
- The user has a strong background in C, C++, and Python. Make analogies to those languages when reviewing code in other languages
as well when I’m using it to help me learn a new language.
If you want bug ridden code with security issues which is not extensible and which no-one understands, then sure, it's a practical use case.
This assumes you never review it, meaning it’s at best an argument against vibe coding. It’s not an argument against using LLMs for coding in general.
Additionally, I’ve been writing software for a living for almost 30 years, and I could say the exact same thing about a lot of human generated code I’ve reviewed during that time. I don’t even know how often I’ve explained basic stuff like “security goes in the backend, not in the frontend” to humans.
Let's face it the only reason you're saying "coding is a practical use case" is because you yourself don't code, and don't understand it.
I certainly do code and if I don’t understand what the LLM outputs it doesn’t go in the project.
I can't see another reason why would assume the problems experienced in other domains somehow don't apply to coding.
I’m a software engineer, I can’t judge LLMs in most other domains. I also don’t think there are no problems. A tool doesn’t have to be 100% problem free to be useful as long as you recognize the limitations.
So you're going to have to pick your way through every single line it generates in order to have the same confidence you would have if you wrote it
I don’t see a problem with this. The post even mentions pulling code from stackoverflow, which is the same. But nobody ever argued that it has no uses in coding because you still have to read the code.
Honestly at this point any article just flat out dismissing LLMs for coding only reads to me like the author isn’t even trying to stay up to date. Which is understandable if they don’t like AI but makes posting about it a bit pointless.
A year ago I would had a similar opinion as the author but in the last 3-4 months specifically, it feels like AI based tools made a huge leap. I went from using short snippets for learning to letting AI implement entire features and being actually happy with the result.
There is however still a pretty big difference between what it produces for common problems vs. what it produces for specialized difficult ones. It’s also inherently better at some languages than others based on the availability of up-to-date training material. So you need some amount of breadth in your projects to accurately judge it.
If you only try some AI service in free mode on one thing every month, for example, you’ll just have this very polarized opinion that’s either “AI is useless” or “AI can do everything”, but you won’t have a good idea of what it can and can’t do.
This assumes you never review it
Too many people assume, that since genAI is a machine, it'll never make any mistakes.
A year ago I would had a similar opinion as the author but in the last 3-4 months specifically, it feels like AI based tools made a huge leap.
I've seen this claim made basically weekly for the last couple of years, if we're having "generational leaps" monthly then these LLMs would actually be capable of doing what people claim they can.
It’s just my experience as someone who was pretty much forced to use AI for coding by my employer for the last few years. For the longest time it was completely useless. And then it suddenly wasn’t. I’m sure you’ll keep hearing this kind of story though, because people have different requirements and AI assisted coding or even agents don’t have to start working for everybody at the same time.
"Additionally, I’ve been writing software for a living for almost 30 years, and I could say the exact same thing about a lot of human generated code I’ve reviewed during that time. I don’t even know how often I’ve explained basic stuff like “security goes in the backend, not in the frontend” to humans."
This is the part I find so funny, as if all humans, hell all DEVS are actually capable of writing perfect code every time. Edit: (Reread and realized I didn't phrase this right) Whereas a normal-lower end dev wouldnt be able to write that program in less time than an LLM could whip up a similarly buggy program.
Like do y'all (expert coders who write things like this article) interact with software outside of what you actually write? I've literally never worked with a larger program that didn't have some kind of bug or strange behavior, it's just how it goes.
I do think it's an interesting dynamic we are seeing play out, I've been wanting to learn and get better at code and this is simultaneously a great time to learn and a horrible time to learn lmao.
A year ago I would had a similar opinion as the author but in the last 3-4 months specifically, it feels like AI based tools made a huge leap. I went from using short snippets for learning to letting AI implement entire features and being actually happy with the result.
Maybe if you're only working with languages and features that are well documented and have a lot of examples out there. I've been trying to use LLM coding to assist me with a process automation at work, and the results are a couple steps up from dog vomit more often than not.
AI code assistants aren't making big strides, you're likely just seeing them refine common scenarios to points where it becomes very usable for your specific use cases.
Sure. How much the language or features change is also important. For example Claude can build entire iPhone apps in Swift but you bet they’re going to be full of warnings about things that are illegal now and you bet if there’s any concurrency stuff it’s going to be a wild mix of everything async that ever existed in Swift. It makes sense too because LLMs are trained on code that’s, on average, outdated.
But what it’s good at and what it’s not good at is just part of what you need to know when using AI, just like with any other tool. I have projects too where it can at best replace google, so I don’t try to make it implement those by itself.
Oh you must try the newest version of with , with letting it to do most of your job and only do code reviews, and otherwise you'll have to learn how to prompt it
ultra copium.jpg
LLM coding is great and we need to make sure everyone knows it, despite their own experiences
soul.yml for some of these people lol
what works with my normie "what's the big deal" is the following analogy:
this is akin to cleaning out your snowed-in driveway with a twin-engine afterburner from an F14 Tomcat - holy shit, it actually cleaned the thing! saved me a buncha time! and it cost pennies!
yeah, but:
And sometimes it doesn't actually remove the snow.
It actually doesn't remove the snow, which I think makes it a PERFECT analogy since you've wasted a shit ton of energy on the flashy,expensive, idea instead of just doing what actually works.
Just to make a counterpoint. Yes, it will! https://youtube.com/shorts/hlYtx4Xe7r0?si=B1yX0Tld8oFXZ_vB
Do you not understand how insane jet engines are?
Odd, no matter how many people keep insisting it's a scam and it doesn't work, it nevertheless keeps on working when I use it.
Maybe they're not using it right.
"doesn't work" doesn't mean the AI literally does not produce any output or do anything, it means it has so many flaws it's just a fundamentally bad technology to be using.
And don't worry, I've got sources.
LLMs still routinely hallucinate, and even implementations being used by AI safety researchers can't help but automatically wipe email inboxes without permission. They atrophy your brain the longer you use them, cause both general dependency and emotional dependency, as well as deskill you at your job, they produce content favored worse by both humans and the AI models searching for trustworthy sources, and to top it all off, scaling laws are already failing to improve AI models enough to fix these problems, companies aren't seeing returns, the economy gained essentially nothing from AI investment, usage, and growth, and public perception by the people actually affected most by AI is only getting worse while the people financially incentivized to keep building it say it's going to get better, all while datacenters accelerate global warming and LLMs keep killing people.
I don't know about you, but I'd rather not support a technology that makes you get fundamentally worse at most cognitive tasks, damages the planet, burns money that could otherwise go to something more valuable, all while randomly killing mentally vulnerable people.
“doesn’t work” doesn’t mean the AI literally does not produce any output or do anything, it means it has so many flaws it’s just a fundamentally bad technology to be using.
that’s odd i use it daily and it works fine
The doctors who used it daily said it worked fine, and it did. Then those doctors became 20% less capable at identifying tumors in their patients.
The Meta AI security researcher literally said, and I quote: "It’s been working well with my non-important email very well so far and gained my trust on email tasks" when asked why she'd give it access to her primary email, where it subsequently started trashing her whole inbox.
All of the participants in the cognitive debt paper's research had the AI actually produce the results they were looking for, but they all became less capable mentally as a result.
And when a woman in South Korea killed two men using advice given to her by ChatGPT, it worked fine for her, didn't it?
That's not to say your use of AI makes you a murderer. Far from it. But we have quite well documented evidence of LLMs simply making people dumber. You are not an exception to that, unless your brain biologically operates entirely differently from everyone else's.
When you use neurons less, the connections become weaker, and less new connections get made. When you offload work to something else, like an LLM, you stop training your brain to get better, and you let parts of it slowly die.
Using AI is like using a hydraulic robot to bench press for you. You're going to move the weights, but your muscle mass ain't growing.
The more you outsource the very function of thinking to a chatbot, the more reliant your brain will become on that chatbot to think as well as it used to, and when that chatbot regularly hallucinates faulty answers and logic, ignores best practices, inefficiently implements solutions, and gets things wrong, your brain is not improving as a result of that.
This doesn't mean you should never use AI. I use it to automatically clean up the transcriptions of my voice notes sometimes, and all that does is save me time from correcting the output of the text I just spoke. It's genuinely helpful, and doesn't meaningfully deskill me in any way. But if I used it to try and do everything for me, not only would it have made a ton of mistakes, but I'd then be even less capable of fixing them.
I use it to automatically clean up the transcriptions of my voice notes sometimes, and all that does is save me time from correcting the output of the text I just spoke. It's genuinely helpful, and doesn't meaningfully deskill me in any way.
But still, it does deskill you at that task, lest we forget. So if that was a meaningful task at which you wanted to stay adept, you would lose that meaningful skill. AI consistently deskills us at everything we ask it to do instead of doing it ourselves. Anything we are not doing, we are getting worse at doing.
You're not a detail orientated person, are you?
I have a theory that supporters of genAI or LLMs are lonely angry neets who just want a sense of control in their radically tumultuous lives.
care to weigh in on my theory of when AI started to help out with this moment in your life?
there’s like 100 million+ users of ai, that’s a lot of neets
the overwhelming majority of chatbot users run on average about 5 prompts per week, or less than one prompt per day, according to OpenAI's own usage stats.
"Why are they pushing AI? Nobody wants this!" Meanwhile chatgpt.com is the fifth-most-visited website in the world.
But I suppose people can just wrap themselves in a social media bubble where anyone who say something positive about AI gets downvoted through the floor, and then their view of the world gets curated to look a bit more like how they want it to be.
There's a big difference between having a website that you can choose to engage with and having LLMs jammed into your device's operating system or programming IDE that make you jump through hoops just to disable them (or your email and then be told your emails are going to be used in training and if you don't want that you have to turn off all the smart features, including the ones that aren't LLM-based).
There would be certain use cases I'd be open to, but at least give me a choice when deploying it out as to whether it's on or off, what it has access to and make it easy to change those settings.
Right. The website that people choose to engage with shows that people are choosing to engage with AI without being forced to. It shows that the demand for AI is organic and real. Lots of people want to use AI.
yeah exactly, I also love their 'it produces NOTHING but GARBAGE', as if I can't see exactly what it's producing every time I make a query which I do multiple times a day 🤯
Yeah, I have deep reservations about the various AI companies, the environmental impacts of the industry, and many of the other issues that people are bringing up here. And, I have still found a few very practical uses.
My partner was fighting with their insurance company about getting reimbursed for several thousand dollars of medical expenses. After a couple of rounds of rejections I had them send me the paperwork, insurance information, and rejection letters and then asked ChatGPT what we should say to get them to reimburse us. It came up with a letter that had the right legal mumbo jumbo to convince the insurance company to agree and pay us. Yes, I could have hired a lawyer, but the legal fees would have eaten up most of the money. And I guess I could have gone to law school, gotten a specialization in insurance law, and figured it out myself. But that also would have cost more time and money.
I still think “AI” is overhyped and has a lot of ethical issues, but there are also some very practical uses.
You're right, it's just mostly garbage output. I eventually get to a moderately usable answer a lot of the time, but more often than not I have to constantly tweak the prompt or tell it to follow the goddamned system prompts I give it, and it still feeds me obvious bullshit on 1/4-1/2 of the responses.
Maybe you're working in a common area where the AI doesn't have to work hard to give you good outputs, but the AI is trash for the tasks I give it.
the overwhelming majority of chatbot users run on average about 5 prompts per week, or less than one prompt per day, according to OpenAI’s own usage stats.
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