Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain
Feb 18, 2026

A former senior U.S. intelligence official who is an informal advisor to the Trump administration on Middle East policy told Drop Site that, based on his discussions with current officials, he assesses an 80-90% likelihood of U.S. strikes within weeks.

Iran realizes that it is facing an unprecedented threat from the U.S. if a deal that conforms with Trump’s terms is not reached, former Pentagon official Jasmine El-Gamal told Drop Site. “This is not a dress rehearsal,” she said. “This is it. This is not the negotiations of last year or the year before or the year before that. They’re backed into a corner. There’s no off ramp.”

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[–] 24 points 8 months ago (36 children)

I know this is naive but is there ZERO international efforts to stop this blatant terrorism?

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  • [–] 22 points 8 months ago* (4 children)

    Europe outsourced their militarism to the US for 40-60 years.

    Who would stop this? As in, who has the forces to do so?

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Ugh, its so true. But like, what about the UN ( i know, i know). What about congress? (Again). Where is anything?

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  • [–] 10 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    But like, what about the UN ( i know, i know).

    Well, I mean, do you? You're asking about a body created by and hosted in the US and funded also largely by the US. It's toothless and useless because nobody has ever done anything substantial to legitimize it except the US and now that the US has decided that unilateral fascism is the easy path, what exactly does anyone expect?

    It's like a microcosm of the sum of Europe's problems rn, tbh.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago*

    But surely there are economic sanctions or SOME even milqtoast consequences that can get ball rolling

    Im aware how reckless the un is but those sorts of rebukes on the international stage DO make a difference

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  • [–] 18 points 8 months ago (7 children)

    Russia and China have been sending military aid to Iran. China has also cut the US off from rare earths supplies which is affecting American military production. Clearly that hasn't been a sufficient deterrent though.

    And there's really nothing that can be done in terms of international law because the US simply ignores it.

    Obviously neither Russia nor China want to have a direct military confrontation with the US either. That would be WW3, and likely lead to a nuclear holocaust.

    So, it seems like a war on Iran is unavoidable at this point.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    China has also cut the US off from rare earths supplies which is affecting American military

    I thought they capitulated in this, no?

    It sounds like its incumbent on american citizens, then

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  • [–] 10 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Nope, they never lifted restrictions on that.

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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago (2 children)
  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    With a dictatorship of the bourgeoisie why is Russia being so nice?

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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago

    They're not nice. They wanted to be part of the western club since the fall of USSR, but the west chose to have an antagonistic relationship instead which pushed Russia towards the Global South, because it's the only option they had. Iran is important to both Russia and China geographically since it creates a route to Middle East and Africa, and it acts as the key force to contain US and Israeli influence in the region.

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  • [+] 5 points 8 months ago (5 children)
  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    I totally know that but like .... notning? Really? UN? NATO? WEF? Anybody?

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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    It used to be the USSR but that era is long gone and the US filled the void.

    Not even China wants to go down that route.

    Iran also failed to properly maintain and upgrade their military since the end of the war with Iraq. They have an internal political issue which is why they have the IRGC, which is a completely separate entity from the national military.

    It was in the supreme leader's interest to keep the main military weak to ensure he couldn't be couped, but now that has left them extremely exposed.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    Didnt know that. Makes sense. Do you think he could rally a defense force?

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (1 child)

    Probably not within the given time frame, the US is still trying to figure out a way to topple the government without a land invasion which would be insanely more expensive.

    Even without it, their airforce is practically nonexistent so they would be under constant air strikes which could cause desertion or internal rebellion.

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  • [+] -2 points 8 months ago (12 children)
  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (11 children)

    Willing? Do you mean: doing all the harm?

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  • [+] -7 points 8 months ago (11 children)
  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (10 children)

    Im not advocating for that regime. Thats a separate issue.

    However, the usa abd pissrael goaded Iran into a much more severe reaction. Do you remember when pissrael said they had agents inciting insurrection amongst the protesters?

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  • [+] -4 points 8 months ago* (10 children)
  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Again, this is not me advocating for the regime. However, as an anti-imperiliast, I can hope that the people of Iran make changes to their government on their own, without 2000 lb palestinian child murder bombs from the usa

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  • [+] -3 points 8 months ago (3 children)
  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    I think, considering the totality of the circumstances eg: what america will do/does across the globe; they have a greater chance on their own, of being free, than with the """"help"""" of the usa

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  • [+] -1 points 8 months ago (2 children)
  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    To be clear: the people of iran will be slaughtered when running into the forces of the iran?

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago* (5 children)

    I think countries should bomb the USA as they have ice concentration camps. And while they do so I hope that the civilian deaths are people like you

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  • [+] 1 point 8 months ago (5 children)
  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    Just advocating for the same thing you are

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  • [+] 0 points 8 months ago (4 children)
  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Unlike you, I recognize that civilian deaths are inevitable when another country attacks another country with a shit pretext. And not only did I say the pretext to attack the US is it having ice concentration camps, it is more just than your US manufactured pretext to attack Iran). Fuck off dipshit

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  • [+] -1 points 8 months ago* (3 children)
  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    If you think Iran should be bombed because they are reactionary and commit attrocities then you're one of those useful idiots that cheer on imperialism. Lick that boot harder. The attrocities the US did inside and outside their border dwarfs anything Iran did (ICE concentration camps is not the worst the US did by a long shot)

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  • [+] 0 points 8 months ago (2 children)
  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 child)

    Do you think we should give up on the Iranian people because the US committed atrocities?

    No but they have a right to self determination and the US should not interfere, especially when they make it obvious that there's an ulterior motive and have been inciting violent protests.

    Also, could you give a more graphical description of how you hope to see me die?

    With a prior warning of a roof knocker to disorient you before blasting you to pieces, in order for the nation state that does it to claim they're the most moral army

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  • [+] -13 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    Eh, it's Iran. Most of the world hates them, so good luck gathering support.

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    [–] 23 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    yeah I saw almost no coverage on this today. the zone is flooded, and boy is it shit.

    Don lemon though, they covered it extensively.

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  • [–] 13 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    Sadly both sides are eager to attack Iran 😭 😭 😭.

    Reminder Schumer started taco trump because Trump was hinting he may be soft on Iran not for anything he does to the America

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  • [–] 17 points 8 months ago (9 children)

    Trump is finally about to become presidential.

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  • [–] 12 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Also getting his Nobel peace prize aaaany minute now.

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    lol didn't Machado already give him hers in hopes of being crowned queen of Venezuela

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    Wdym, he's already doing the civilian bombing and random country attacks.

    Does he really need a war to get full presidential when already the embodiment of what's wrong with America?

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    A full-scale, unprovoked invasion of Iran is the only thing that will make Trump a real president in the eyes of the Democrats.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    Idk, I think that hinges on him letting them vote to allow it first. If he doesn't let them vote yes they'll be upset. Just like trumps other attacks that didn't tell them beforehand

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  • [–] 16 points 8 months ago (10 children)

    I hope that Iran sinks a carrier. The Trump Regime should have egg on their face, and be forced to keep their grasping hands from touching people.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (9 children)

    That would mean an actual declared war, which would bring Russia and China in.

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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago (5 children)

    Iran already got bombed to hell and back some months ago, maybe this is the time for action? The question is: would the rest of the West go along, once more, with the Burgers or will they abstain?

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (4 children)

    The question is: would the rest of the West go along, once more, with the Burgers or will they abstain?

    it sounds like you didn't hear about the standing ovation european leaders gave to marco rubio's call to re-invigorate colonialism in munick the day before last

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    I didn't, thanks for the info. 😔

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    the way he describes the global leftist moves as "godless communists" makes it worth watching the speech yourself. lol

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago* (1 child)

    I can't believe that's still a relevant and convincing thing to say, wtf. Maybe for American audiences (and that might be all they're aiming at, just local support/spin, TBF), cause atheism in Europe is not shunned (and they still have more moral grounding than many "God-fearing" Americans who actually just worship either money or power 🤷).

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago

    the entire speech is filled with really old things like that and i wish more people would see the standing ovation to understand that all of the western ruling classes want epstein illuminati levels of control.

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  • [–] 0 points 8 months ago*

    That would mean likely the US nuking Iran in a fit of rage while the TV propaganda plays images of the sinking ship and wails and gnashes its teeth and demands action then applauds or falls solemnly silent when it happens. The media will simply say "well maybe it wasn't right BUT they did sink our carrier, they shouldn't have done that and we wouldn't have done this, you know how we are". And that will be that.

    Russia is as someone else noted tied up in Ukraine and doesn't want to escalate with the guy (Trump) who can force Ukraine to sign a treaty or agreement with them. Getting into a hot war with the US would be a nightmarish strain on their military and bring them and US very close to nuclear war. Russia will resent losing its Iranian partners to the US but it won't end the world or Russia in order to attempt to stop it. China is uninterested in getting drawn into a war at all, much less that far from its shores where they don't have the advantage in logistics compared to the US and would be at an awful disadvantage. China's navy is not a deep blue water fleet like the US, their navy is structured around coastal defense in the South China Sea and it and their air force lack the range to engage in anything protracted with the US.

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  • [–] 10 points 8 months ago* (2 children)

    I heard the US's new legion of peace settled on a headquarters

    legion of Doom headquarters from super friends

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  • [–] 35 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Every American who called Russians orcs better be getting ready to fully embrace that label.

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    [–] 10 points 8 months ago

    The hegemon will always say they can defeat an enemy swiftly. To say otherwise is to admit its weakness

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