Generative “AI” data centers are gobbling up trillions of dollars in capital, not to mention heating up the planet like a microwave. As a result there’s a capacity crunch on memory production, shooting the prices for RAM sky high, over 100 percent in the last few months alone. Multiple stores are tired of adjusting the prices day to day, and won’t even display them. You find out how much it costs at checkout.

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[–] 309 points 11 months ago (29 children)

I swear there's a new gold rush every time I want to upgrade my pc.

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  • [–] 170 points 11 months ago (8 children)

    It wouldn't be quite so bad if the previous gold rush ended first, but they seem to just be stacking up.

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  • [–] 46 points 11 months ago (5 children)

    Speak for your self - scored a nice GPU upgrade during the crypto crash, maybe something similar will be achievable after this insanity hits the brakes.

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  • [–] 5 points 11 months ago (3 children)

    I thought they weren’t using gaming gpus this time though?

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  • [–] 6 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (2 children)

    Gaming GPUs during normal crypto markets don't compute fast enough to mine crypto profitably, but if crypto prices get high enough such as during a boom cycle, it can become profitable to mine on gaming GPUs

    Edit to add: For crypto there's basically a set speed that any given GPU mines at. The hash rate specifically. It really doesn't change noticably over time through software updates, nor does the power consumption of the GPU. Its basically a set cost per cryptocurrency mined with any given hardware. If the value earned by mining can exceed the cost to run the GPU then GPU mining can quickly start making sense again.

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  • [–] 2 points 11 months ago (1 child)

    Yeah, even less so with gen AI though I think.

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  • [–] 1 point 11 months ago

    Machine learning models have much different needs that crypto. Both run well on gaming GPUs and both run even better on much higher end GPUs, but ultimately machine learning models really really need fast memory because it loads the entire weights into graphics memory for processing. There's some tools which will push it to system memory but these models are latency sensitive so crossing the CPU bus to pass 10s of gigabytes of data between the GPU and system memory is too much latency.

    Machine learning also has the aspect of training vs inference, where the training portion will take a long time, will take less time with more/faster compute and you simply can't do anything with the model while it's training, meanwhile inference is still compute heavy it doesn't require anywhere near as much as the training phase. So organizations will typically rent as much hardware as possible for the training phase to try to get the model running as quickly as possible so they can move on to making money as quickly as possible.

    In terms of GPU availability this means they're going to target high end GPUs, such as packing AI developer stations full of 4090s and whatever the heck Nvidia replaced the Tesla series with. Some of the new SOCs which have shared system/vram such as AMD's and Apple's new SOCs also fill a niche for AI developer and AI enthusiasts too since that enables large amounts of high speed video memory for relatively low cost. Realistically the biggest impact that AI is having on the Gaming GPU space is it's changing the calculation that AMD, Nvidia and Intel are making when planning out their SKUs, so they're likely being stingy on GPU memory specs for lower end GPUs to try to push anyone with specific AI models they're looking to run to much more expensive GPUs

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  • [–] 5 points 11 months ago*

    There was a nice window from about a year or two ago to about 3 months ago where no individual components were noticably inflated. Monitors took the longest to recover since the pandemic shortages so that was arguably around the beginning of this year that they seemed to fully normalize

    Its funny because at work we've been pushing hard on Windows 11 refreshes all year and warning that there will likely be a rush of folks refreshing at the last possible minute at the end of the year inflating prices. And we ended up being correct on the inflated prices part but it was actually the AI bubble that did it

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  • [–] 55 points 11 months ago (12 children)

    This is why I'm still running ddr4. Every time I think about upgrading a generation, there's a run on some integral component.

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  • [–] 35 points 11 months ago (8 children)

    AM4 is gonna last until the 2030s at this rate...

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  • [–] 17 points 11 months ago (4 children)

    With how good my 5600x still performs, I could very well see it lasting that long. Assuming it doesn't randomly kill itself after a few years like my previous ryzen 5.

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  • [–] 10 points 11 months ago (2 children)

    I was silly and got myself a 5950X. But I feel less silly about it now tbh. It’s gonna become my new homelab core whenever I get the chance to do a new gaming build again that’s not a high 4-figure investment.

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  • [–] 10 points 11 months ago (1 child)

    Totally worth it with how good ryzens have held up performance wise. Unless you're doing some really CPU heavy stuff or have a beast of a GPU, you probably won't get bottlenecked by the CPU for at least 5 more years.

    Unless you're using windows in your homelab. I assume you're not since you have a home lab.

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  • [–] 2 points 11 months ago (2 children)
  • [–] 8 points 11 months ago* (1 child)

    In a sane world, the limitations of a CPU socket would be reached, and then newer SKUs would no longer be release and all stock for prospective builders would be second hand.

    That's clearly not the case here. AM4 continues to get new CPU releases and parts are still available new from retail, years after the support officially ending. That's a good thing for variety and entry level machines, but such dependency means a future CPU could be limited in featureset/performance if it releases on AM4 instead of AM5, which there may be enough demand to force designers to downgrade chips for AM4 compatibility.

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  • [–] 4 points 11 months ago

    The good thing about new AM4 boards being available at this point in time is you have options to keep older hardware running. Usually the CPU and memory will out-survive motherboard. Much like those new Chinese motherboards supporting 4th and 6th gen Intel CPUs, this is great for longevity and reduces how much production is needed

    In a sane world, the limitations of a CPU socket would be reached, and then newer SKUs would no longer be released

    I'd argue that it would be best if computers were more like cars, a new platform gets released each decade or so, and small improvements are made to individual parts but the parts are largely interchangable within the platform and produced for a decade or two before production is retired. More interchangable parts, slower release cycle and more opportunities for repair instead of replacement

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  • [–] 1 point 11 months ago

    I dki so too - just upgraded my X2600 with a shiny X5950, the nicest cpu my aging mainboard can run. with 16 cores and 64 gigs of ram i see a future when i simply replace the entire machine for daily use and make this one a very nice server.

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  • [–] 13 points 11 months ago (3 children)

    It’s why I started treating computers as commodities — I rarely upgrade anymore; just wait the 5 years and by an entirely new system.

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  • [–] 29 points 11 months ago (2 children)

    Same except for me it's 10 years.

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  • [–] 8 points 11 months ago

    This is about my upgrade cadence, except for storage. I ran my Ryzen 1600 until the 7000 series dropped and upgraded mobo+RAM at once for about $600.

    I then moved the old parts to another case to use as a low load server only for both the motherboard and CPU die within a few weeks. 🫡

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  • [–] 3 points 11 months ago*

    Yeah, i think the correct response to planned obsolescence from the side of computer manufacturers is to exclusively buy products from companies who have produced long-living machines in the past.

    That gives manufacturers an incentive to make the machines they produce last longer, instead of shorter to sell newer products more frequently.

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  • [–] 8 points 11 months ago*

    because we're in an era where there always will be a gold rush for a specific component. upgrades have slowed down considerably in the past 10 years, my laptop is 4 years old and still kicks like the first day, I still game on my 8 year old laptop which is permanently attached to the TV and running as a steam machine with more than decent performance.

    this wasn't even thinkable in the 00's

    I'm pretty sure after hard disks, GPUs, rams the next shortage is either Arm CPUs or a specific future type of PSUs

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    [–] 99 points 11 months ago* (4 children)

    I have 128gb of corsair ddr5 in my closet. IM RICH!

    Just did a quick check, it's worth double what I paid for it. I'll just let it sit in my closet until it's worthless.

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  • [–] 63 points 11 months ago (7 children)

    Lol pricing computer parts like they do fish in an expensive restaurant.

    What a time to be alive.

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  • [–] 19 points 11 months ago (4 children)

    Thing is, this isn't new in the slightest.

    I remember calling around to different PC stores in the 90s and early 00s to find the cheapest RAM and hard drive prices.

    Before that, I remember my grandfather, an IBM employee in the 60s-90s calling places looking for best pricing on 64k-128k SIPP memory for an ibm pizzabox 286.

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  • [–] 20 points 11 months ago

    That was the norm before it was so easy to buy online from across the country, local stores set their own prices and a few minutes of calling to find the best deal is like searching on Google for a few minutes to find the best deal... But they weren't doubling in price in a couple months, that I can recall anyway.

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  • [–] 9 points 11 months ago (1 child)

    I'll never forget the time someone in my neighborhood found out one of the local PC shops had a deal on 8MB of RAM for like 100 bucks. That's not a typo kiddies 8 Megabytes. We were so excited, a bunch of us piled into one car and rushed over there before they sold out!

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  • [–] 1 point 11 months ago

    Yeah the "shopping around" aspect isn't even close these days. I remember ~25 years ago using price aggregator sites to pick up individual PC parts from all different websites.

    Today the situation is flipped. It isn't difficult to find a really good price. If you buy all your parts from the same retailer, you'll be way closer to the minmaxed optimal price than in the past.

    The problem is that right now the "good" prices are crazy.

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  • [–] 4 points 11 months ago

    In paris there was this street "rue Montgallet" selling computer stuff like that around y2000, the prices for the most sold things were printed on a cheap paper daily or you had to ask. Guarantee? Yes, but it stops when you leave the shop, or so was the saying.

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  • [–] 53 points 11 months ago (7 children)

    If you want to see a good set of graphs on pricing over time, PC Parts Picker does some good ones. It's absolutely INSANE how bad it's getting. The graphs in question.

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  • [–] 16 points 11 months ago (4 children)

    I was like DDR4 doesn't count

    One well-documented memory industry trend that is behind the price increases seen is said to be makers shutting down their DDR4 production in favor of DDR5 and other more profitable lines. In February, we noted that the likes of Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix were being rudely elbowed out of the DDR4 market by Chinese players (such as CXMT and Fujian Jinhua) ruthlessly undercutting them in this segment.

    Samsung was seen to flinch in late April, as reports circulated that the South Korean technology and manufacturing giant had scheduled to cease DDR4 production in early June.

    Now there are indications that oversupply from Chinese ‘dumping’ is at an end, as CXMT has been instructed by the Chinese government to abandon DDR4 manufacturing. Thus, the reported spikes in DDR4 pricing in recent weeks may stem from a perfect storm of the above supply-side factors all exerting an effect over a relatively short period of time.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ddr4-prices-continue-surge-reportedly-122337204.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

    But still ouch :)

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  • [–] 1 point 11 months ago* (2 children)

    Oh no.
    So even if I manage to somehow get DDR4 for lower prices, I can't expect the SK Hynix modules.

    Guess it's going to be a few more years before I can get a RAM upgrade, or maybe never at all.
    It might end up being similar to how DDR3 ended up being more expensive than DDR4 for multiple years.

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  • [–] 2 points 11 months ago (1 child)

    I mean since it's driven by demand from companies running AI models it's mostly impacting higher speed modules with lower speed/capacity kits being less significantly impacted. Granted that's also pushing demand up for those lower speed kits since for gamers quantity matters far more than speed, meanwhile AI really cares about speed most

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  • [–] 2 points 11 months ago

    I am going by mainly 2 points:

    • DDR4 being dropped in favour of DDR5
      • What if the places with high quality output end up just staying on DDR5
    • DDR4 being taken by the cheaper manufacturers
      • Ever since seeing how well my old SK Hynix DDR2 has lasted, I have been kinda partial to it. paying $10 - 15 extra to get something that I won't have to replace for the device's lifetime (~20 years) makes sense to me
      • The new modules made by the cheaper ones might not end up being as good and reviews may be hard to find as most enthusiasts that do quality testing, tend to do so only when the tech is new (and now that is DDR5)
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  • [–] 2 points 11 months ago (1 child)

    Here's some that's significantly cheaper than the graph would suggest: https://www.amazon.com/G-SKILL-Trident-64GB-SDRAM-Memory/dp/B0BSB94VC2

    Not that it's a good price in general or anything, but if you absolutely must buy now...

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  • [+] 50 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (6 children)
  • [–] 21 points 11 months ago (5 children)

    For real. I've been building a completely brand new computer for my husband for a couple months now. Buying a new piece each paycheck, then I get paid this week and I discover I can't buy the RAM... It's fucking half way finished and the only 2 parts left to buy is GPU and RAM.

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  • [–] 23 points 11 months ago (4 children)

    Unfortunately those are the most expensive parts right now because they both require memory chips. Perhaps consider buying used, might be tough to find DDR5 DIMMs but used GPUs are plentiful.

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  • [–] 10 points 11 months ago (3 children)

    I'm definitely looking for used parts, especially in my local classifieds. I'm going to jump on the first affordable set of ddr5 ram I can find lol

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  • [–] 11 points 11 months ago

    It's sweet how much effort you're putting into it. When I was a kid I built my first computer one piece at a time with money I saved from mowing lawns, there's something so satisfying about earning a computer through dozens of shrewd bargains and months of dedicated labor. It's all worth it in the end, you've got this!

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  • [–] 152 points 11 months ago

    First they came for the hard drives, and I did not speak out because I didn't need a hard drive. Then they came for the GPUs and I did not speak out because I had a pretty dope GPU. Then they came for my 8gb of ram and there was nobody left to speak out for me.

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  • [–] 36 points 11 months ago (4 children)

    Lived in the Silicon Valley in the 1990's, when the price of RAM exploded with the web, armed robberies of manufacturing plants and warehouses for RAM became a thing for a few years.

    Insert <Aw shit, here we go again . meme>

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  • [–] 14 points 11 months ago (2 children)

    I think the RAM manufacturers were found to be guilty of colluding/price-fixing in that case (maybe this case too).

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  • [–] 4 points 11 months ago (1 child)

    Altman secretly secured 40 % of the world's DRAM manufacturing capacity last month. Supposedly Samsung and HK Hynix weren't aware they were both signing up for it.

    That alone would be enough to call collusion if it wasn't an obvious play to strangle his competition by literally choking them out of hardware.

    https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram-deal

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  • [–] 7 points 11 months ago

    But now the surveillance capabilities of both the state and large corporations have been ramped up to infinity and beyond. I'm expecting a partnership announcement between Micron and Raytheon any day now, where Raytheon gets free DDR5 and Micron gets armed and autonomous security drones.

    Kind of \s, kind of not

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  • [–] 30 points 11 months ago (5 children)

    This is crazy, not displaying the price of an item in a shelf or display is against consumer laws where I live. And if the price on display is not updated the store is required to sell by the price on display.

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  • [–] 17 points 11 months ago

    It's blatant price-gouging. Any stock in the store has already been sold to them at an agreed price. They can set a number and make their set margin.

    Updating prices after each delivery might make sense (if their procurement department is absolute dogshit at negotiating contracts), but updating prices throughout the day is just someone trying to see how hard they can push their margins to drain every cent out of their customers.

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  • [–] 4 points 11 months ago (2 children)

    That's probably one of those toothless laws that can be easily bypassed on a technicality. Like, just say the shelf is for "storage" and not "display".

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  • [–] 2 points 11 months ago* (1 child)

    Some places try to argue something like that, but if you push back a little they cave. The law estipulates a fine ranging from 74 to 1 000 000 USD for visible products in shelves or display without a visible price tag. And since its a fine, the government is eager to get his piece of the pie.

    (Edit for misspelling)

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  • [–] 20 points 11 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] 39 points 11 months ago* (3 children)

    Ffs I keep delaying a rebuild of my PC because of crap like this every year thinking the bubble will burst, but something new comes up. I don't use it for gaming nowadays, just regular browsing since I have a console but even Sony is bringing their stuff to PC so I was looking to upgrade. Now it's been pushed even more.

    Hang in there my 8 GB ram PC with GTX 960...

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  • [–] 11 points 11 months ago*

    so i switched myself and my parents to arch linux over the past 3-4 months and I can say definitively that those specs are fine for CachyOS (an Arch Linux distro). My mom is using my hand-me-down 970 with its lovely "we charged you for 4gb of vram but actually only 3.5 of it is fast haha sucker" and it runs great paired to an old i7 6700k.

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  • [–] 18 points 11 months ago (1 child)

    This bubble cannot burst soon enough

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  • [–] 2 points 11 months ago*

    It can't pop if the US Treasury just keeps dumping tens of billions of dollars into it as a backstop.

    The Infrastructure Reinvestment Act kicked this mess off, but it didn't pad the wallets of the right people to the right degree. So now Trump is just cutting idiots and assholes across the VC Tech Sector ten-digit checks to keep doing what they're doing.

    We're increasingly operated as a Planned Economy that exists to turn natural resources into AI slop, because this is what the federal government's leadership believes they need to maintain the illusion of control over the public.

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  • [–] 17 points 11 months ago (7 children)

    I think that in the long run, the RAM shortage will turn into a glut of much faster and larger DDR5 RAM sticks. Provided if you can wait for the transition to AM6, an AM5 endgame system will have pretty good RAM.

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  • [–] 16 points 11 months ago (6 children)

    They are going to pivot all that processing to the next snale oil scheme. Do you think its a coincidence that rhe AI hype came immediately after crypto crashed?

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  • [+] -11 points 11 months ago (5 children)

    I view AI to be like the printing press: It is good for the everyman...if that everyman was willing to own and make use of it. By ceding AI to oligarchs, society would be allowing the 1% to have more tools to do stuff, while denying the public from making effective use of them.

    The answer isn't to reject AI, but to fund publicly developed and owned AI. Every minority who has 95% of Disney's legal acumen in their pocket, will be able to more effectively resist Kavenaugh Stops in court. An AI can scour the web and spot discounted goods that a person actually wants, and create a shopping list that is cheap and convenient. People can have a competent teacher, if their rural household lacks a school. All these things lend a little extra agency to ordinary people.

    My point, is that we shouldn't refuse tools. Instead, we should adopt them on OUR terms, not the techbro's.

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  • [–] 22 points 11 months ago* (2 children)

    LoL, LLM's aren't capable of being "competent" at anything. Not law, not teaching, not even coding. They are pure garbage at nearly everything they are applied to. Yes, some of these things have had some limited success at finding patterns in the noise. But those successes are grossly outweighed by the absolute failure of them to do anything else.

    https://tech.co/news/list-ai-failures-mistakes-errors

    https://www.allaboutai.com/resources/ai-statistics/ai-bias/

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/ai-factual-errors-chatgpt-gemini-copilot-b2867620.html

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  • [–] -5 points 11 months ago* (1 child)

    AI is an technology, and like any technology, it improves. The AI we had two years ago was something akin to the Orville flier, the ones we have now are equivalent of a biplane. Those examples of technology weren't very useful, but the planes that followed were far more capable and economical.

    Your assertions that AI is useless, is merely burying your head in the sand and hoping things will go alright. The outright refusal of AI by people like you, only ensures the most evil people can use it. This is like only allowing Nazis to own guns, peasants not being allowed to own land, or newspapers to only be owned by the wealthiest.

    It is power that you are giving up, and power doesn't care about who has it.

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  • [–] 12 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

    Hallucinations are an intrinsic part of how LLMs work. OpenAI, literally the people with the most to lose if LLMs aren't useful, has admitted that hallucinations are a mathematical inevitability, not something that can be engineered around. On top of that, its been shown that for things like mathematical proof finding switching to more sophisticated models doesn't make them more accurate, it just makes their arguments more convincing.

    Now, you might say "oh but you can have a human in the loop to check the AIs work", but for programming tasks its already been found that using LLMs makes programmers less productive. If a human needs to go over everything an AI generates, and reason about it anyway, that's not really saving time or effort. Now consider that as you make the LLM more complex, having it generate longer and more complicated blocks of text, its errors also become harder to detect. Is that not just shuffling around the necessary human brainpower for a task instead of reducing it?

    So, in what field is this sort of thing useful? At one point I was hopeful that LLMs could be used in text summarization, but if I have to read the original text anyway to make sure that I haven't been fed some highly convincing falsehood then what is the point?

    Currently I'm of the opinion that we might be able to use specialized LLMs as a heuristic to narrow the search tree for things like SAT solvers and answer set generators, but I don't have much optimism for other use cases.

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  • [–] 7 points 11 months ago

    This assumes machine learning models are able to get better than they currently are. Newer models have been plateauing in quality of outputs (improvements have been noticable in video and image generation, but even that is slowing down)

    I don't think we're going to see machine learning models that perform well enough to create printing press level change to the world

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  • [–] 2 points 11 months ago

    I have a similar perspective. I built my own in-home AI server because I assumed if the technology had any staying power, I better learn how it works to some degree and see if I can run it myself.

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  • [–] 16 points 11 months ago

    If this bubble doesn't pop soon, I expect a memory card thefts to start making the headlines. Small and easier to carry off while being more expensive than some jewelry of the same size.

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  • [–] 25 points 11 months ago (4 children)

    That's crap. They've loaded their stock on a certain price and they want to surf the high wave while they can.

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  • [–] 6 points 11 months ago

    They also need to be able to replenish that stock at current prices. I've worked retail many times in my life and arguably kinda-sorta do so now (albeit largely over the Internet) and I've never run any store where we did not set our pricing by replacement cost rather than original invoice cost. In my current operation there are some rare exceptions for clearance items and the like, but for the vast majority of products we sell for what it's going to cost me to get the next one to put back on that shelf, not what it cost me for the one I'm selling you now.

    I don't have any insider insight into other companies' operations, but I imagine a lot of other retailers work things the same way. Especially these days.

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