I think the real problem is do they actually have that much money?

That's because it allows someone to win a lot of money without producing anything in the real world.

Who knows though.

That's what people said from 2005, took years for the straw to break the camel's back.

There is one difference between housing and stocks. When housing market crashes, you are still left with a house to live in. When stock crashes... well, nothing.

..people who have been using AI to cheat through highschool/college will not suddenly study two years worth of material over the month..

Oddly enough, I know several younger people - men and women - who are no longer using AI to write up their work for school, because as they claim, the results are getting poorer. In one case the AI generated a set of conclusions that were entirely unrelated to the main point of the paper. The guy ended up backpedaling on the whole project, which he'd only started on and had to use several weekends to sort it.

Where I would use AI was to find the source materials and then verify those sources to make sure they were organic and not synthetic, then go forward on my own...

But I'm also an old fart, so what do I know of how higher-ed rolls today.

people who have been using AI to cheat through highschool/college will not suddenly study two years worth of material over the month.

They might if the technology suddenly becomes prohibitively expensive to use. The cost of LLMs is hugely subsidized right now because AI companies know that if they passed the real cost of compute on to their customers, no one would continue to use their products. And the problem is getting worse. New models are using MORE computation, not less, and AI companies are continuing to burn mountains of cash 'hyper scaling' instead of trying to figure out how to bring costs down.

And that's fine for them while they are still investors for them to grift... but the VC money won't last forever. Eventually investors are going to expect some sort of return on investment, and most big investors are already massively over-leveraged on AI, so every quarter there's less and less VC cash to go around.

So some day soon when the investment well runs dry, AI companies will have no choice but to start passing their costs onto their customers, and we'll all finally see just how grossly expensive this technology really is.

Hmm. Is it good to agree with him?