Hello. I will start with a couple criticism on the article you shared.

A place in the May 2 runoff could prove a cruel prize. If Le Pen beats him [JLM], the anti-capitalist who has spent half a century fighting the far right could help give it what it has never won: the Elysee Palace — and command of France’s nuclear arsenal.

This is very strange. They make it sounds like Jean-Luc Mélenchon it responsibilities for Marine LePen getting close to presidential power. To me, they imply that French people should vote for "more reasonable" candidates instead of the "very radical" JLM. This is a very opinionated sub-text. JLM and LFI are not communiste revolutionaries that want to abolish capital and cease private property. They are just the only progressiste remaining on the political spectrum. JLM is in no way responsible for the raise of Far right fascist ideology in France. Unlike Macron, his successive governments and mass media, that have been extremely complessant with the far right, supporting every day their racist and hateful rhetorics.

His detractors see that as the greater danger. They accuse him of stoking unrest and antisemitism, scorning the police and the press, and going soft on Moscow — charges he rejects.

The rhetoric that LFI are antisemites is pure diffamation coming from political opponents. Simply because LFI are recognizing Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza. This is totally unfounded, and as a fact they didn't receive any sentence in court (as antisemitism is a crime in France), unlike some of their opponents, those very same accusing them !

Now, here is my personal analysis:

• Emanuel Macron is the most hated president in the history of the 5th Republic
• Emanuel Macron has already installed an authoritarian regime in France: he has tarnished every Democrat tradition and denied all democratic processes (§49-3, Convention citoyenne pour le climat, pétitions, legitimate protests)
• he triggered a snap election of the parliament, out of this election come out 1st NFP (union of left including LFI) and 2nd RN (Marin Lepen's Extrem-right)
• he denied both these groups from proposing a prime minister.
• behind closed doors, he makes deals with Marine LePen to place some right-wing prime ministers in power, and categorically refuses to negotiate with the NFP (they are still the first group in parliament)
• he is using police to repress popular protests as brutally as ever
• during his 10 years in office, he has dogmatically only ever implemented ultra-capitalist policies. Giving away Billions of € in public money and tax cuts to big corporations and Billionaires without asking anything in return for the country
• in the meantime he increased retirement age, slash budgets for public health and education, dismantle all public services, asking everyone to work harder and tighten their belt
• all alternatives options have been dismissed without consideration as not realistic or not serious, only he and he alone is right about everything, he doesn't even listen to his own ministers.

France is polarized between 1. far right, people that are racist and totally propagandized 24/7 by TV channels like CNews (equivalent to FoxNews), BFMTV and LCI, and 2. progressive left, people that believe we should do something about the ultra wealthy having too much power and the climate going to shit.

Given the direction we're going, it's almost certain that Melenchon (not-so-far left) will be president. But nothing is written in stone.

I think the protests are a double-edged sword : a lot of people are shocked by the repression, and discovering the awful state of some schools, and it shows a massive demand for social justice, so on one side, it radicalizes people toward the left. On the other side, some typically conservative people are angry because of the protests being showed as only riots by mass medias, and they are asking for more repression and less social justice, so it radicalizes people toward the right. The question is which of those effect will be more powerful. From what i see around me though, the people it radicalizes towards left were partly apolitical or centrists persons, with no clear leftists views, while people asking for a more repressive state were already far-right or close to it. So i'm hopeful.

Otherwise, the election is like in many places of the world : traditional parties wo were just different flavours of neoliberalism collapsed, in favor of more anticapitalist parties on one side, and fascist-leaning parties on the other one. I really hope Mélenchon and LFI can make the cut, even though i despise their republicanism and patriotism, the organization of their core party, and the campism of some of their members.

A small precision: LFI isn't far-left. Far-left starts when the ultimate goal is to get rid of the State, of dominations including capitalism, white supremacy, etc...

LFI is closer in goal to what Mamdani would propose in the US context. I let you imagine why they both are portrayed as far-left child-eating islam-loving jew killers, and I let you imagine the kind of people and media pushing this rethoric without really questioning it

for my instance brothers and sisters and nonbinary siblings: 🇫🇷 Corrigez moi si je dis des conneries dessous

🇺🇸 Hey welcome, I don't know where to start so instead I'll just share random thoughts

• don't hesitate to ask your french inlaws and partner about it, french people are very varied so the more perspectives you get the better, it's possible they do not share the same views as our instance members (we lean quite fairly left and are for the most part LFI/Mélenchon sympathisers)
• we love to discuss politics while eating (but first we must discuss unrelated foods and cooking methods while eating), bonus if you have a racist uncle that starts yapping after too many drinks at 4pm (and you haven't even eaten dessert yet) you're as close to the french sunday lunch experience as possible)
• Mélenchon's strategy is "conflictuality" as in no compromises on their political stances, clear guidelines and program to apply and no giving up on any part of it, very smart analysis of the power (im)balance between classes and the political issues and strategies that can arise from it, and embraced strategy of breaking from the current status quo
• This strategy works very well with lower class and young people who also happen to vote a lot less (retired people vote A LOT so right wing parties appeal to them), so there's a huge "reservoir" of ballots available for the taken to turn elections around BUT Mélenchon's party La France Insoumise (LFI) also gathers most of the votes from highly educated people
• each of Mélenchon's campaigns have been underrated by polls and mainsteam (billionnaire owned) media, you can theorize (but not prove it) that its manufactured so they'd rather not have a candidate be too popular and heard by people, he threatens their bourgeois status
• yet he has consistently overperformed compared to polls, for 2027, he is currently already polled at ~20% for the first round, at a similar time (late october) in other elections, he was polled at ~10% (2021, got 21,9% in 2022), ~12% (2016, got 19,5% in 2017), ~7% (2011, got 11% in 2012), there's a huge distrust in poll results because they seem to be very flawed and used influence public opinion
• imagine if Mamdani (elected at 50,78%, polled between 45% and 50% from October to December) was instead polled at ~30% throughout the campaign and still won at 51%, this would be a huge failure from poll institutes, this is the current state of things in france
• this gigantic article (you gotta use a translator sorry) goes in depth why Mélenchon is going to win despite the polls https://blogs.mediapart.fr/eliot-thibault/blog/011126/pourquoi-melenchon-va-faire-25-et-sera-au-2nd-tour you can also translate this series of tweets from september https://nitter.mizuki.st/badmulch/status/2103042887688896582#m

Then there was the student and union protests. Are these helping bring awareness to the other parties to get their shit together?

I'd personally say not really, LFI / Mélenchon have always been listening to those, and are encouraging students (and protesters in general) to voice their concerns because they believe a change in the status quo will not only happen with their election, they need a general protest / strike for things to change (he said in a meeting it would be a failure if there's no general protest / strike after he gets elected)

The students and protesters have been met with insane disdain from the government and right wing parties imo, most of them (including mainstream medias) are focusing on rioters, minimizing police brutality (there's never been so many people arrested in a protest, and they were in majority minors)

Anyway don't hesitate if you have specific questions