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[–] [S] 8 points 1 month ago (8 children)

It seems like we are heading for a record month in lost personnel.
This is literally insane, and I wonder what it takes for the average Russian to finally say no?

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  • [–] -1 points 1 month ago (7 children)

    How is it "insane"? These numbers are too small to be obviously noticeable in the short term. Those numbers should be the Great War tier to start being frightening to Russia.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    If you have to add 30.000 soldiers a month to keep the war going, and you succeed in doing that, then you can continue.

    But if suddenly you need 50.000 (the Ukrainian goal) and you start to struggle to find "even" 30.000 a month, then your war is basically lost.

    Not instantly, but it's like driving to another city and there is no gas station on the road, and you can do it at 90km/h because the car consumes just that much. If you start going 130km/h and your car now consumes more, it's not an instant catastrophy, but everyone in the car now knows you won't make it, and might take action too.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago (1 child)

    Oh, don't start with analogies -- they're all wrong by definition.

    The main problem with all that arithmetic is that we don't actually know what amount Russia can conscript per month. They might do X now not because that is their limit, but because X is what they can do effortlessly and without any fuss from peons.

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  • [–] [S] 2 points 1 month ago* (2 children)

    Because they have been generally very high lately, and this is at least the fifth time within a month that the number for lost personnel is close to or above 2000. The average for the war is "only" just above 900. Casualties have been steadily more than 50% higher than average for the war for a long time now. Also they are insane because Russia is trying the same approach with less and less success. Trying the same and failing over and over again expecting a different result is a symptom of insanity.
    Finally no these numbers are not to small to be noticed, many people notice, even pro Russian bloggers are beginning to notice this way more than before.

    It's not just the numbers for today that are insane, it's also the numbers lately, and even compared to those, the numbers today are high. It's an enormous loss of life for Russia for no gains. Which is also insane.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    very high lately

    Higher? Yes. But still far from being high enough.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 1 month ago

    I am 100% with you that Russia needs to be thrown out of Ukraine, In principle the only number high enough is what makes Russia give up and never come back.

    But we also have to appreciate that Ukraine is actually successfully holding back a force 4 times their own size, and it is going better for Ukraine on the front 4½ years into a war where Russia has hammered Ukraine as hard as they can, and Russia is beginning to lose terrain despite increasing their efforts.

    This is a result of an enormous effort by Ukraine and aid from their many allies.
    And what Russia is doing is IMO insane. It is insane that they accept these losses and continue their bu now obviously futile efforts.
    I bet Ukraine is doing everything they can to get the numbers up. In fact that is allegedly part of a relatively new strategy since about March AFAIK, a strategy with the purpose of curbing the effect of an expected new Russian mobilization after the election, an expectation that seems to be justified.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    I think the world view of Russias strength has changed substantially since this conflict revealing how weak leadership is in that country.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 1 month ago

    Nobody myself included thought that Ukraine stood a chance in the beginning of this war.
    It was only when Russia showed incredible incompetence, with long caravans of tanks that were stuck, and Ukraine managed to hold Kiev, that it began to look like there might be some hope.
    I think it was within a matter of weeks, but I may remember that wrong.

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