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Trump’s Pollster Drops Bomb on GOP as Midterm Panic Grows: “Bloodbath” (newrepublic.com)
submitted 1 month ago by [B] to c/progressivepolitics@lemmy.world
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A striking new poll finds Democrat Mary Peltola leading GOP Senator Dan Sullivan by 46-41 in the Alaska Senate race. This is big news: Because quality polling of Alaska is so rare, it’s a real indicator that a Senate majority is now truly gettable for Democrats. The poll also finds Trump badly underwater and absolutely tanking with independents—in Alaska! The kicker? The survey was done for AARP by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, along with top Democratic pollster John Anzalone, so Republicans will take it ve...

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[–] 49 points 1 month ago (1 child)

I’ll believe it when I see it.

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    • [–] 30 points 1 month ago (5 children)

    Individual polls are usually meaningless. I've been keeping an eye on this website for aggregate polling data. They do more than just average the polls they review the polling company and data and give it a weight.

    For Alaska, it's d+3 right now, which is way too close to be comfortable.

    https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate/general/alaska

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    Whoa, didn't know some of the 538 people were doing this. Nate Silver (creator of 538) still owns the original models and has been updating and running them over at natesilver.net

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  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    Yeah, I loved the 538 podcast. I listen to Galen Druke's GD Politics podcast every week, which is how I found this site.

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    [–] 20 points 1 month ago

    Other GOP operatives that the party is bleeding Latinos

    I can’t imagine why.

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    [–] 14 points 1 month ago

    The only thing that matters this November is that you GO TO THE POLLS AND VOTE

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    [–] 13 points 1 month ago

    This means jack shit if we allow Trump to cheat at any point of the process. Which he admittedly will try to at every chance he gets.

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    [–] 12 points 1 month ago

    polls are pointless when most polled don't bother to vote.

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    [–] 8 points 1 month ago

    Polls are better at swaying elections than they are at accurately representing the opinions of a population.

    Vote. Ignore anyone who tells you they know how it's gonna go.

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    [–] 8 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    How is this still so close??

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  • [–] 14 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 child)

    Because these polls don’t take into account how many Republicans and Independents will simply not vote this November rather than voting for a Democrat.

    The polls do attempt to correct for that, but there’s no reliable way to measure it, so these are the best numbers we can get.

    They discuss this frequently on the podcasts Pod Save America and Pollercoaster.

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