A striking new poll finds Democrat Mary Peltola leading GOP Senator Dan Sullivan by 46-41 in the Alaska Senate race. This is big news: Because quality polling of Alaska is so rare, it’s a real indicator that a Senate majority is now truly gettable for Democrats. The poll also finds Trump badly underwater and absolutely tanking with independents—in Alaska! The kicker? The survey was done for AARP by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, along with top Democratic pollster John Anzalone, so Republicans will take it ve...

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[–] 14 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 child)

Because these polls don’t take into account how many Republicans and Independents will simply not vote this November rather than voting for a Democrat.

The polls do attempt to correct for that, but there’s no reliable way to measure it, so these are the best numbers we can get.

They discuss this frequently on the podcasts Pod Save America and Pollercoaster.

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