Dude. We all saw this shit coming. A blind man could have seen this coming.
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I enjoyed listening him when was interviewed at this podcast https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/164-peter-turchin
His methodology and arguments are quite reasonable and sounding.
I would recommend
Great. Here's hoping this round of instability meaningfully undermines the Great Satan.
Every "scholar" has been predicting the downfall of society since the beginning of time. What makes this one any different? The old "end is nigh" gambit for views and clicks. We need news to come back, not conjecture. Jack Webb said it best "Just the facts, ma'am.".
I mean, one of them is bound to be right eventually...
But that doesn’t mean any follow-up predictions they make or solutions they offer or even explanations they have are right.
It’s the Texas sharpshooter fallacy we commit every time we point to an expert for making a correct prediction and using that as a reason to trust anything else they say. This is because countless experts make predictions all the time and if we ignore all the wrong ones then we need to account for the fact that one of them may be right due to pure chance.
His paper has been published on Nature… this because everyone can say the “end is nigh” but few people can come with mathematical models for showing it 🙂
Yeah this “scholar” is just every millennial who was told to sit down at stfu by every adult in our lives even now that we’re the adults it hasn’t changed
Doomsday cults have been around forever. Goes back to the Puritans. This isn’t new.
There were apocalyptic Jewish sects for thousands of years before Christ. Heck, John the Baptist was an apocalyptic Jew that Christ respected. That is why there's even a reference to the apocalypse in the Bible. I personally blame the bronze age collapse, and the green Sahara ending.
Man everything has been worse since Halo 3 came out.
Friendly reminder that Halo 3 is legally an adult this September and that you're getting old, as am I
Another friendly reminder: if The Land Before Time (as in, the first one) was a part of your childhood, it’s time to schedule a colonoscopy
You watch your whore mouth!
Did he mention how long it would take? Because it's somehow happening too slowly and way too fast at the same time.
No, but someone replied to his article and suggested about 50 years. I think longer, as in better wake Harry Seldon and let's go start Foundation like yesterday!
https://peterturchin.com/the-science-behind-my-forecast-for-2020/
Strauss–Howe Generational Theory (not SDT from the article) predicts the current Crisis Era will end around 2033. For reference, the last Crisis Era ran from 1929-1946. But whether the US/democracy is still in one piece on the other side is yet to be determined.
The only claim they make is that,
According to Strauss and Howe, the first turning is a high, which occurs after a crisis. During the high, institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, though those outside the majoritarian center often feel stifled by conformity.
Yeah I'm 46 and shooting for a heart attack by 50, like my grandfather. My dad's 74 though so I'm worried my life will drag on past that and I'll have to deal with deteriorating mental faculties. Dying isn't the bad part - it's the slow descent into senility that worries me.
It didn't sound contrarían to those of us paying attention to the economics, in addition to the social policies. DAE remember the Obama Bear cartoons? "Obama! Obama!”
roll my fuckin eyes. when was 1985 written??
Is that a sequel?
1985: The further adventures of lobotomized Winston Smith!
... its 270 pages Smith staring at a poster of Big Brother, just endless, baseless, internal monologue poetry about how wonderful he is... with very occasional intrusions of reality that, overtime, make it clear he is actually in something between a set and a cell, and the 'cafe' keeps serving him drugged tea and coffee.
I mean that was right around, or maybe a bit after the tea party movement got started. If you follow that group you see how the ideology infected the republican party and led to Trump. The policies the tea party pushed are basically 1-to-1 with Trumps.
All of it is effectively snake oil politicians using hard times to convince Americans to act against their best interests.
One of the clearest historical parallels to now, he notes, is the 1970s. That decade saw radical movements emerge from university campuses and middle-class enclaves not just in the U.S., but across the West. The far-left Weather Underground movement, which started as a campus organization at the University of Michigan, bombed government buildings and banks; the Red Army Faction in West Germany and Italy's Red Brigades carried out kidnappings and assassinations. These weren't movements of the dispossessed, but of the downwardly mobile—overeducated and politically alienated.
"There's a real risk of that dynamic resurfacing," Turchin said.
People will only stand for getting shit on for so long.
Amusing to watch western academics rediscover dialectical materialism from scratch.
I'm glad we are getting confirmation but you dont have to be an expert to notice.

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