none of this is particularly exceptional in regards to how the national guard has been used in the pass. Situations like the battle of blair mountain for example.

Blair Mountain is absolutely exceptional, and treating it as though the fact it has happened makes it normal is literally normalization.

Far more likely he’s trying to instigate chaos, create news stories he can spin to his base about how out of control things are, attempt to justify to them further consolidation of power, as well as create a plausibly deniable excuse to invoke legitimately more extreme measures like the insurrection act that would let him straight up ignore PC.

I don't know if you missed D.C., but all that he needed to "justify" multiple states deploying NG troops to DC, and federalizing the police force, was one asshole getting carjacked. He doesn't need to instigate anything, his base is already on board with his plans, including trampling over PC. "Legitima[cy]" has not stopped him invoking the Alien Enemies Act, so I'm not sure why you think he's going to need his eventual claim of Insurrection Act violation to be any more legitimate.

There is no space between what he will consider insurrection, and compliance, for you to safely remain in by not rocking the boat. It's one or the other in his (and his base's) mind.

The tyrant will always find a pretext for his tyranny.

• Aesop