So the problem with this line of thinking is seeing it as binary. What actually happens in cases of cults is that some split off, and the remainder are more fanatic than ever. For examples, see the Great Disappointment of the Adventists, or 1975 predictions with Jehovah's Witnesses.

The trouble that MAGA has is that it doesn't take many to split off before they're no longer a meaningful political force. Over the last six months, both Democrats and Republicans have been getting phone calls of death threats if they don't do everything Trump wants. Members of congress have made certain decisions because of this. That is going away.