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[–] [S] 1 point 3 days ago (3 children)

Yes there finally seems to be some willingness from Russia for negotiation. But probably far from a situation where Ukraine get their territory back.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (2 children)

    Can't see either side agreeing to formal territorial concessions. Neither has such an overwhelming advantage at present that one gets to dictate to the other. Just like Korea - there's a demarcation line and the shooting stops, but no official peace treaty. Neither side is happy with what they currently hold, after all.

    Devil's advocate - Ukraine getting territory back is a longer term prospect. They've lived without Luhansk and much of Donetsk and Crimea for 12-15 years already. Doesn't seem likely Ukraine has the open disregard for it's own soldiers' lives that would be required to make a large scale push in the near term to regain big pieces of territory. And a post-putin power struggle may present less bloody ways to make that happen - either the territory itself, or allow more favorable and safe terms for the ukrainian-inclined populations of those areas to return to Ukrainian held land. Human capital is extremely valuable to both of these countries given their already poor demographics trends.

    The conditions for land reclamation may be better later than they are now.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 days ago* (1 child)

    Ukraine has very reasonable demands, use the current front but secure Ukraine from attacks in the future. But Russia demands are absolutely insane.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 days ago*

    By design - lots of people have reminded us this is the Russian Way of negotiations. Maximalist demands.

    Demand more than everything, and yield nothing. Then sit there in uncomfortable silence until they offer you something you didn't have before, because they always do. Because feckless pussies in the west value peace more than you do. This is the negotiation tactic of terrorists, of course. Give us something or else.

    That only works though, if they truly fear your potential brutality. But - what else can Russia do that it hasn't already done to Ukraine? It's possible there is a limit to their 'give me something' stonewalling. They're dying in vastly irreplaceable numbers right now and not achieving anything substantial in the process.

    The past success of Russia's maximalist demands was predicated on fear of what the Russians might do if you didn't give them something. Not only can they not be trusted to keep their word, but we've seen all they can do. There's really not much they can do to escalate further, which really erodes their childish position. China isn't going to allow them to use nukes, nor should you use nukes against a) your neighbor or b) land you claim is yours.

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