Just to make this clear up front: I was always very skeptical of LLMs (I'll never call them AI) and still see them as fundamentally limited and unreliable. See my post history if you don't believe me.

Having said that: I work in business software and the models have progressed to the point where typing code and writing classes and functions by hand has become uneconomical. We review the output closely to avoid the idiocy of "vibe-coding", but the quality has improved to the point where we rarely have to outright reject solutions. The discussions have moved to high-level architectural points, where we just request better implementations than the first-shot. We get them, review again and move on. Maybe there are deeper, latent problems beeing embedded in the code-base through this process, but we can't spot any although we are looking intently.

And just like that, my profession has died. Nobody in my team writes code anymore. Things that would have taken days are now done in minutes. We are all just considering design and architecture. We are changing our processes since they are not fit for the new way of doing things. Scrum? What's even the point anymore? We can work through a sprint-backlog that would've taken two weeks in two days now. We do reviews 90% of the time. When we request changes they come back in minutes.

I have a feeling like the ground has been taken from below me. My son wanted to become a developer, that isn't a real job anymore. Everyone around me feels the same way, including our management. We are a small team and a small company, everyone is effective and our jobs are not in danger as long as our product is succesful. But my profession is essentially dead. It's a craft I honed for many, many years and the craft itself is now automated. I wanted to improve my typing skills to code faster, this is now a ridiculous endeavour. We don't know what comes next, but I now only have my analytical skills and knowledge of good architecture to fall back on.

And it all changed so fast. I don't think this will transfer to other professions so easily, but for programming LLMs ended it all in the span of the last four months. I thought I knew what my future holds as a senior dev, now I can barely see past christmas.This is a nightmare.

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[–] 13 points 1 week ago* (6 children)

My man. Software development was never really about writing code. Well, maybe junior positions did that. But the most valuable developers were always the bridge between the code and the customer, guarantors of technical accountability and that continues today.

There are still people that write assembly and cobol. They just aren't very common. There will still be people writing c and js by hand, because for some apps, that accountability will matter more than building cheap software. But, yeah, cheap software will be automated in the same way that development of cheap software moved to compilers and scripts instead of writing assembly by hand. It was always a matter of when, not if.

I guess it's a bit sooner than we expected. You will need to decide if you want to retool your skills for cheap software (transitioning to something like a technical PM), or compete for positions maintaining critical software. Won't be easy either way.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 week ago (5 children)

    So, what happens when there's no work for junior devs and so they can't get hired and can't gain experience?

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  • [–] 3 points 1 week ago (4 children)

    Yeah. It sucks. But we have done variations of this dance, before.

    Eventually the dumbass bosses find a problem they can't just wave salesforce an LLM at.

    So I hire those zero experience junior developers and charge dumbasses exorbitant rates for their work, plus my personal guarantee that anything the inexperienced juniors cannot do, I will take care of, just as soon as I damn well feel like it.

    I make sure my junior developers take their time and really learn while they run up my customer's bills.

    Here's a little secret: when I damn well feel like it also depends on how excruciatingly polite the dumbass bossman is to me, and to my junior devs.

    I had one who couldn't manage excruciatingly polite, and I think he's still up shit creek, to this day. I think he tried to get me fired. Didn't work.

    It's a shit deal I offer my customer, in that era, but they don't have any choice, by then.

    But hey, maybe the LLMs can just do it all for them, and they'll never need actual expertise again. Some are sure to get that lucky. Most will pay me to mentor some junior developers while the dumbass bossman sweats waiting for a patch.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago (3 children)

    Won't they just hire experienced developers to fix problems caused by LLMs? Why hire junior devs at all?

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago (2 children)

    Good question.

    They won't just hire experienced developers this time, for the same reason they couldn't last time.

    There will be another shortage of experienced developers.

    Last time, I wasn't sure how far I could push it, before I got bored of juicing money from idiots, and I switched to doing somethinore rewarding.

    Next time, I have a head start knowing how to juice money from idiots.

    I'll train the junior developers on how to juice money from idiots, too, of course.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago* (1 child)

    But. You literally aren't a junior dev. This highlights what will actually happen: experienced developers will come back to the profession after having moved into different fields. Actual juniors will be displaced by returning workers like you.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

    Fair concern.

    experienced developers will come back to the profession after having moved into different fields.

    I understand the fear.

    I didn't see this, in past cases where there was a developer shortage.

    To my perception, those who had left didn't come back.

    Except for about two years in 1998 and 1999 to pick up some Y2K COBOL money before re-retiring.

    I guess we will see how this time plays out.

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