Maybe, but it is equally possible that people will be forced to learn that their unwillingness to care about this stuff because it is "wayyyy too complicated" is existentially not sustainable....
People picking Bluesky over Mastodon when Mastodon already existed and was easily functional enough for people to choose as an alternative is a perfect example of what you are saying but also... Bluesky is a vaporwave brand that will eventually strangle itself into obscurity in the pursuit of monetization and Mastodon will keep chugging along... so people will have many many chances to learn why ActivityPub and the Fediverse are the future, and those learning opportunities will only start coming quicker and quicker.
