EDIT: Ok just to be clear. There are three positions.
There's other options you're ignoring:
.4: The Russian economy collapses due to the combination of sanctions, "kinetic sanctions" reducing foreign income, and the mono-focus on war-goods delivery causing large segments of the economy to be unable to produce or produce cost efficiently
.5: The various oligopolists and other power bases decide they've had enough of Putin bleeding them and want the good times back, Putain gets Gadaffi'ed
.6: Internal uprisings of some of the downtrodden colonies - prob not Chechnya again, but Far East, and Circassia etc, particularly given a lot of maimed and mentally impacted soldiers returning there
Now I don't think the last one is very likely for a bunch of reasons, but the point is your options are way too narrow.