Confirmed: Dead or Alive 6 was able to install, fully patch, install all single player unlock keys, launches to start screen... but does not allow me to start a session. Same stuck login screen previously shown by Mass Effect Andromeda.
I yanked the CAT5e, and suddenly I'm playing DOA6.
My apologies news media. This is certainly looking like an outage that prevents any physical media from working... without workarounds.
If anyone has any (reasonable) additional tests you think I should try. Let me know.