That movie was about 20 people copying one guy

I haven’t heard this much bubble talk ever.

Exactly. And you know who's bad at predicting things? Large groups of people.

It's a fractional bubble at best. Unlike the Dot Com bubble, which invested in things like URLs that no one wanted and WorldCom's fiber layout, the buildouts and investments being done on spec aren't of the kind that are single-use. Data centers are always in demand, anyway. Storage and cloud compute are always in demand. Electricity is in demand. If AI flops tomorrow, other than 3 over-valued companies employing....a few hundred people, and idiot investors in those companies, the entire economy isn't yet entirely dependent on LLMs exactly because they suck at most of what they do anyway. Government contracts are stabilizing the whole industry anyway, something absent from the Dot Com era.

Edit: You know who IS a risk? All the dipshit startups that think putting a wrapper on a CustomGPT was a good business model, and took out loans for that rather than split equity. That's going to be your first indicator to look for, and it's wavering because, as it turns out, 99.999999% of those ideas are stupid.

History is the best teacher, and a detailed look shows these are only alike in that they are tech-related.

You're not getting the full picture of the reasoning, or intentionally ignoring parts, I dunno.

• Large groups of people are historically bad at predicting financial markets. Very few people ever correctly predict a bubble ending, and considering that a large group of people are traumatized by 2008 and can read Wikipedia well enough to see the Dot Com bubble, they've erroneously put 2 and 2 together and think all large investments in tech will equate to a bubble. Regardless of the structure underlying it.

• Structural differences between Dot Com bubble and AI investments are numerous and extensive. Structurally, they're similar anecdotally at best. Yes, there are problematic parts. Data center demand will never be met by anything other than a few janky fly-by-night centers and ramshackle kludge-hosts in Serbia or Brazil where they're not regulated like the US or EU.

• The circular investment issue isn't just actual cash trading hands, it's assets and stock as well. In previous bubbles the majority of the bad investments were over-leveraged financing. Loans. There's actually very little in terms of loans going into these companies, which is a notable difference between this and literally every other bubble in history.

• I think the bubble will be 2 or 3 smaller bubbles that falter, but the mass of the overall industry will fail to full tip over because there's enough parts that can be scrapped and reapplied to other issues anyway, that demand won't ever evaporate as it did for $2 million URLs in the Dot Com bubble, or railway lines to nowhere in the 1840's.

• This does not ignore or assume no problems from layoffs and job displacement. That's a very real and huge threat, and AI will only enhance this problem by trying to claim it can manipulate and bilk poor people better than Google can.