We’ll have to chat more about it, but reads like copium to me.
This reveals the plans Europe is currently formulating.
It shows the terms they are willing to accept. A new, optimal scenario for the end of the war has emerged.
50% — 3. The Base Scenario: "Finlandization" Prior to NATO Membership (The New Scenario)
Under this scenario, Ukraine cedes a portion of its territory but retains its sovereignty and strategic orientation. It rebuilds its military, invests in its industrial base, and gradually integrates into Europe—both economically and politically. Formal NATO membership remains out of reach in the near term, and Kyiv may be compelled to exercise a certain degree of strategic restraint so as not to provoke Moscow. However, over time, Ukraine builds up its own deterrence capabilities and deepens its Western alignment—ultimately joining the EU and, potentially, NATO in the long run.
Provided that the European economy does not collapse this year, I view this scenario as plausible. However, this scenario fails to account for the domestic political climate within Ukraine, as well as the potential for internal social conflict. One must consider the system itself—founded on corruption and graft—along with the hundreds of thousands of soldiers returning from the front, and the staggering quantity of weaponry that will inevitably remain in private hands. Once the war concludes—and assuming, as I foresee, that the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) are disbanded—I believe a new Maidan uprising and a new civil war will ensue. Currently, Budanov is making bold, high-profile statements; yet, he remains largely in the shadows, avoiding any rash moves that might tarnish his reputation in the slightest. I am convinced that the West is actively grooming him to become the next President of Ukraine—specifically to fit the scenario outlined above.
Incidentally, the "Georgian Scenario"—to which J.P. Morgan assigns a 30% probability—is also a possibility; however, this would likely only occur if Europe proves unable to cope with the situation or if a major military collapse takes place on the front lines.
The Georgian Scenario. In the absence of both foreign troops and firm security guarantees, Ukraine will experience chronic instability, stunted growth and recovery, a gradual fading of foreign support, and the effective derailment of Western integration—specifically, membership in the EU and NATO. Over time, Kyiv could drift back into Russia’s orbit—politically, economically, and strategically—without a formal capitulation.
The remaining scenarios strike me as unlikely. The "Georgian scenario" is the one that best suits Russia and, in my view, is the most realistic.