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Everything belongs to the workers (lemmy.ml)

submitted 6 months ago by yogthos@lemmy.ml to c/socialism@lemmy.ml

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 3 points 5 months ago (49 children)

Oh that sucks about the power, and I saw their report. We'll have to chat more about it, but reads like copium to me. I do think it's an indication that they see the gig is up now. Another sign is that Europe is now scrambling to find a negotiator, definitely not a thing they'd be doing if they genuinely thought they were winning.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (48 children)

We’ll have to chat more about it, but reads like copium to me.

This reveals the plans Europe is currently formulating.

It shows the terms they are willing to accept. A new, optimal scenario for the end of the war has emerged.

50% — 3. The Base Scenario: "Finlandization" Prior to NATO Membership (The New Scenario)

Under this scenario, Ukraine cedes a portion of its territory but retains its sovereignty and strategic orientation. It rebuilds its military, invests in its industrial base, and gradually integrates into Europe—both economically and politically. Formal NATO membership remains out of reach in the near term, and Kyiv may be compelled to exercise a certain degree of strategic restraint so as not to provoke Moscow. However, over time, Ukraine builds up its own deterrence capabilities and deepens its Western alignment—ultimately joining the EU and, potentially, NATO in the long run.

Provided that the European economy does not collapse this year, I view this scenario as plausible. However, this scenario fails to account for the domestic political climate within Ukraine, as well as the potential for internal social conflict. One must consider the system itself—founded on corruption and graft—along with the hundreds of thousands of soldiers returning from the front, and the staggering quantity of weaponry that will inevitably remain in private hands. Once the war concludes—and assuming, as I foresee, that the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) are disbanded—I believe a new Maidan uprising and a new civil war will ensue. Currently, Budanov is making bold, high-profile statements; yet, he remains largely in the shadows, avoiding any rash moves that might tarnish his reputation in the slightest. I am convinced that the West is actively grooming him to become the next President of Ukraine—specifically to fit the scenario outlined above.

Incidentally, the "Georgian Scenario"—to which J.P. Morgan assigns a 30% probability—is also a possibility; however, this would likely only occur if Europe proves unable to cope with the situation or if a major military collapse takes place on the front lines.

The Georgian Scenario. In the absence of both foreign troops and firm security guarantees, Ukraine will experience chronic instability, stunted growth and recovery, a gradual fading of foreign support, and the effective derailment of Western integration—specifically, membership in the EU and NATO. Over time, Kyiv could drift back into Russia’s orbit—politically, economically, and strategically—without a formal capitulation.

The remaining scenarios strike me as unlikely. The "Georgian scenario" is the one that best suits Russia and, in my view, is the most realistic.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 1 point 5 months ago (47 children)

I can't see how going back to the status quo after 4 years of war would be possible politically in Russia. I expect that any scenario where the war ends will result in Ukraine having a compliant regime and forced neutrality. It will not be allowed to join NATO or EU at this point, and there will be a big cap on the size of the army. So, I think the Georgian scenario is the most likely one as well.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 2 points 5 months ago (46 children)

I can’t see how going back to the status quo after 4 years of war would be possible politically in Russia.

The Kill Zone—it is constantly expanding. This has fundamentally altered the nature of warfare. Victory now belongs to whoever exercises superior control over the Kill Zone. In this context, defense is far easier, as infantry is rendered virtually obsolete.

To seize the strategic initiative, one must establish absolute dominance within the Kill Zone.

We are currently engaged in a war of technology—not a war of men or tanks. You have likely heard about the recent visit from an American entrepreneur who owns a company contracted by the Pentagon to develop and manufacture AI technologies for the defense industry. The Pentagon’s cutting-edge innovations are currently being field-tested in Ukraine. Russia is finding it difficult to keep pace.

And it is precisely this factor that will play the decisive role in the upcoming summer campaign.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 5 months ago (45 children)

I think we'll have to wait and see here. American technology has proven itself to be hype many times in the past, and I wouldn't jump to conclusions here.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (8 children)

It has begun—the very thing you and I discussed long ago... The thing I was banned for for 10 days—it has happened.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cx21rjge20po

Here is the move by Russia that could produce the intended effect.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 1 point 5 months ago (7 children)

If Russia was intentionally going to do an attack outside Ukraine they would do a bigger one, likely with Oreshnik and on a military target. I think two most likely possibilities here is either a stray drone or Ukraine using a scavenged one to try draw NATO in.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 2 points 5 months ago (6 children)

Yes, I agree with you. I was just emotional... )))

Yes, it was probably Ukrainian electronic warfare that deflected the Russian drone, or it was a Ukrainian provocation to draw NATO into the war. Ukraine is also provoking Belarus to join the war. This is all part of Zelenskyy's strategy.

What you and I predicted has begun: a frenzied wave of propaganda has recently erupted in the Ukrainian media. Every morning I open the news and it's filled with headlines like: Russia has almost lost Crimea, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have broken through at the front, Russia is panicking, Putin is almost dead, etc. I haven't seen such a wave in a long time. People are talking about the 1991 borders again.

It's been suspiciously quiet here lately. Not even the sirens are wailing.

Kyiv has finally been affected. People are heading down to the metro at night. Everyone's waiting for that blow.

By the way, look, this is Yakutsk, where socialism still reigns... )))

It's as if time stood still there.

https://youtu.be/1V2Y_6c58Oc?t=130

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 5 months ago (5 children)

I expect there might be genuine panic that Russia will open up another front from Belarus and threaten Kiev again. And that video was interesting, it's good to see how much of Russia still retains so much Soviet imagery. I think that as people continue becoming disillusioned with capitalism, there is a real possibility of changing course. While I know we disagree on China, I do think that China, Vietnam, and DPRK being major allies and trading partners will help nudge people in the right direction. Now people can travel there easily, see how things are for themselves, and they will ask natural questions after that.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (4 children)

I expect there might be genuine panic that Russia will open up another front from Belarus and threaten Kiev again.

Russia doesn't need this; it would have to redeploy additional troops. The front line there is 1,500 kilometers long. It would take about 300,000 men just to hold it. Nor does Lukashenko need this; Ukraine would simply overwhelm Belarus with drones.

And that video was interesting, it’s good to see how much of Russia still retains so much Soviet imagery.

What surprised me was that this memorial was built in 2017. Inscribed on it is an expression of gratitude to the USSR from grateful descendants! This is the first time I’ve ever seen anything like this in Russia. You probably realize now just how much better people living beyond the Urals had it under the USSR—if they still miss it so intensely to this day! Complete devastation reigns there now.

While I know we disagree on China, I do think that China, Vietnam, and DPRK being major allies and trading partners will help nudge people in the right direction. Now people can travel there easily, see how things are for themselves, and they will ask natural questions after that.

Yes, I can see that the process has begun—right before my very eyes, thoughtful Westerners are starting to see the light!

You have to admit that the war in Ukraine gave it the push it needed, don't you?

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 1 point 5 months ago (3 children)

There is a big reserve Russia hasn't committed yet, and people have been wondering why for a long time. I'm also not really sure Ukraine can overwhelm anything with drones. While you get pictures and videos with lots of fire, there's no systemic effect from this. The whole drone campaign is just meant to produce propaganda videos to keep the money flowing.

The fact that capitalism made life worse for the majority of people is why I think it will fail once again. And the war is absolutely the catalyst here. It's what severed relations between Russia and Europe forcing Russia to look to Asia. There wouldn't be free travel to DPRK right now if it wasn't for the war, I can tell you that. A lot of people go there and they're nostalgic because they see echos of USSR there. The war also hurts the domestic economy, so people are much more aware of the contradictions as a result. On top of that, the west has discredited itself, and shown it's true face. I don't think there's any going back from that. So, eastern model of development is the one that will be the one that Russia will likely emulate.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (2 children)

There is a big reserve Russia hasn’t committed yet, and people have been wondering why for a long time. I’m also not really sure Ukraine can overwhelm anything with drones. While you get pictures and videos with lots of fire, there’s no systemic effect from this. The whole drone campaign is just meant to produce propaganda videos to keep the money flowing.

As you can see, exactly what we discussed recently is now unfolding.

Russia seeks to avoid escalation and continues to absorb the blows. Zelenskyy and Europe—having crossed yet another "red line"—have dealt an even more painful strike against St. Petersburg. This comes just ahead of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum—an event that will feature delegations from various nations (including the U.S.) and be personally attended by Putin. Right now, the entire city of St. Petersburg is shrouded in smoke, and it is unlikely the fires will be extinguished anytime soon. Furthermore, video footage has captured drones flying directly in from the direction of the Gulf of Finland—most likely launched from airspace over Estonia. By now, everyone is aware of this.

Russia continues to remain silent—but things are only going to get worse.

And the war is absolutely the catalyst here. It’s what severed relations between Russia and Europe forcing Russia to look to Asia.

Yes, you may recall from the recently published transcripts of Putin's conversations with Clinton: Putin stated that he did not want to deal with Iran or North Korea. China, too, would not have been a priority—just as it isn't now.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 5 months ago (1 child)

As I keep saying, it does not make sense for Russia to escalate until elections in France and Germany happen. If Russia escalates against Europe then that will burn any bridges going forward. If the current regimes fall in either France or Germany than the whole European war effort will collapse. Given the growing energy crisis in Europe, it's very likely that there will be change in direction going forward.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 2 points 5 months ago

Yes, that makes sense.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (35 children)

The situation here is somewhat more serious.

This company has secured a contract from the Pentagon to manufacture American-made Shahed-style drones equipped with AI. New models are being tested in Ukraine under combat conditions—something we are witnessing right now.

https://www.eadaily.com/ru/news/2026/05/27/iz-ssha-edut-na-ukrainu-kak-na-safari-ispytat-smertonosnye-tehnologii-na-rossii

Currently, Russia and the U.S. are essentially competing in technology. I believe that the U.S. holds the advantage in the use of AI.

Perhaps China, too, might want to test something of its own... ))

However, China has no desire to escalate tensions with the U.S., so it is highly unlikely to do so.

Right now, everyone is anticipating strikes on Kyiv. If this turns out to be yet another "final Chinese warning" from Russia, it will start looking a lot like Trump's style. The Russians need to take action—but at this moment, I simply cannot imagine what that action could be that would actually take everyone by surprise. Putin currently finds himself in a difficult situation. The Europeans are becoming increasingly brazen; they have refused to evacuate their embassies from Kyiv, thereby demonstrating that they have absolutely no fear of Putin.

Ukraine's strategy is clear, and they have staked everything on it: to destabilize Russia internally as much as possible—and as intensely as possible—before the Russian elections this autumn. Their objective is to hold the front lines against any major breakthroughs, while simultaneously inflicting maximum damage through strikes deep inside Russian territory.

What countermeasures Russia will be able to deploy against this—and whether it will be adequately prepared to do so—remains to be seen.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 1 point 5 months ago (34 children)

I honestly don't think China cares what US thinks because they have Americans by the balls. The US economy cannot function without Chinese exports. Period. Did you see how Trump was behaving in China? That tells you everything. Not only will China be testing their AI for drones in Ukraine, they will also continue to cut off rare earths supply to the US which is what you need to make components for these drones.

And I expect there will be strikes coming. I also don't understand Ukraine's strategy. It's important to remember that Putin is a moderate, and if he lost then it would almost certainly be somebody much more hard line, and then gloves will come off fully.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (33 children)

And I expect there will be strikes coming.

We talked a long time ago about bridges across the Dnieper. Something like this should probably exist.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 1 point 5 months ago (32 children)

I would still argue that the fact that Russia is not destroying the bridges is a clear indication that they're expecting to keep moving further west.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (31 children)

Indeed, Russia does not seek escalation—a fact evident in the absence of retaliatory strikes against Kyiv for the past eight days.

Ukraine’s drone strategy has recently come to light. Ukraine lacks secure airfields near the border from which to launch drones deep into Russian territory. Consequently, they have adopted Iranian tactics: installing a three-drone launch system onto standard civilian semi-trucks. The truck rapidly moves into position, the crew deploys, and the drones are launched. The problem is that launching 200 drones requires 70 trucks—a quantity that is extremely difficult to conceal. The Russians are now actively hunting down these trucks. It is possible that this campaign has already yielded results. To put it roughly: the day before yesterday saw 200 drones launched; yesterday, 15; and today, 70. Significantly, today—for the first time in a long while—not a single video surfaced showing a target being struck.

Russia must have finally found the key to countering this threat; otherwise, the situation would have continued to deteriorate. We shall see, as events unfold, whether this proves to be true.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 5 months ago (30 children)

amusingly also using trucks as mobile platforms

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 2 points 5 months ago (29 children)

Such vehicles are highly conspicuous; the AFU uses civilian vehicles to maneuver.

Look—these are new AFU drones manufactured in Europe; judging by the build quality, these weren't cobbled together by amateurs in a garage.

https://youtu.be/wpwvcvVun18

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 5 months ago (28 children)

probably Europeans buying from the US and reselling https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/use-of-lucas-drones-in-iran-puts-focus-on-affordable-fast-moving-acquisition/

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (26 children)

Oh, I forgot to mention: a friend of mine has a son living in Kyiv, and the latest nighttime raid made a huge impression on him—even more so than his very first night in the city.

Now, on top of that, there’s been a strike on St. Petersburg... It’s terrifying to think what might happen next.

It seems to me that civilians here are going to suffer far more now. These new strikes will impact the civilian population much more heavily.

It gets pretty loud here at night, too... and during the day. Every now and then, through my open window, I hear the buzzing of drones in the distance—and the sound of fire being directed at them.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 1 point 5 months ago (25 children)

Unfortunately, I also expect there's going to be a lot more impact on civilians now. Also, with the talk of Budanov replacing Syrskyi it seems like the plan is to transition to doing terrorism instead of conventional warfare. Budanov has no experience commanding anything, but he specializes in special forces and working behind enemy lines. So, if he is put in charge it's clear what the focus is going to be going forward. Also notable is that it appears to be American decision. Blumenthal came to talk to Zelensky, and seems like this came as a directive from the US.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (24 children)

Unfortunately, I also expect there’s going to be a lot more impact on civilians now.

Yes, this is definitely a new round of escalation.

I just recently mentioned this "sweet couple"—read what they're up to. Their rhetoric also tells you how serious this really is.

Look at them... two Orthodox elders, preparing to perform a mass ritual sacrifice.

https://charter97.org/ru/news/2026/6/3/686479/

Yes, Trump also had a plan on the table to nuke Iran, but he didn't go through with it. But Russia's situation is more complicated; after defeat, Russia might not exist.

I'm looking at how this Malofeev got rich. It turns out he's doing the same thing my brother-in-law does in M&A.

My God, how awful, it's not hard to imagine what's going on in that idiot's head.

He's absolutely certain that God helped him earn billions. That's 100%! Medieval obscurantism!! He's convinced he's chosen by God.

Also, with the talk of Budanov replacing Syrskyi

In the army, they call Syrsky General 200. A friend of mine came to see me recently; someone he knew had been busified and ended up in the "Skelya" unit. He told him some horrific stories. The core of this unit is made up of former prisoners. There's a culture of abuse there. The criminals abuse the busified. That guy told me they're sending them to slaughter. There was a case where they sent 30 people who had been busified, told them to check something and come back... It's very simple. The column was torn to pieces in 15 minutes. Only one man remained, who hid among the corpses for 24 hours to avoid being finished off. Only one man survived... Syrsky personally oversees this "Skelya."

Budanov has no experience commanding anything, but he specializes in special forces and working behind enemy lines.

Yes, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' tactics have changed recently. The emphasis is solely on deep strikes and stagnation at the front.

For now, Ukraine's offensive in the Zaporizhzhia sector has stalled, while the Russians are advancing very slowly, as before.

But the situation at the front has somehow faded into the background.

Blumenthal came to talk to Zelensky, and seems like this came as a directive from the US.

You've seen that the Americans have again started blaming Putin for his reluctance to make peace. Also, the 400 million package that was previously allocated to Ukraine and frozen is now being transferred to Ukraine from the US.

We've also seen the US change its position. I think this is related to Trump's visit to China.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 5 months ago (23 children)

It's always concerning when you get religious nuts close to the levers of power.

And yeah, the whole busification thing is basically to create single use units. They basically get thrown at the artillery in attempts to take some ground, and they're not expected to survive. I've always been amazed how freely the regime wastes people given the demographics problems.

I told you trip to China didn't go well. They also just published this https://www.state.gov/pax-silica

But, I can't overstate just how fucked Americans are here. China produces both rare earths and silica needed to make chips. They have a monopoly and cannot be replaced. So, there's no trick Americans can pull out of their hat here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKUkgjNaMDE

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (22 children)

Hello, Comrade!

It was very loud last night. The drones were buzzing for a very long time.

The entire ring road is blocked off with nets; there's a battle for the logistics arteries. The Ukrainians, just like before, are delivering painful blows every night into Crimea and deeper into Russia. You've probably heard that Crimea is currently experiencing serious fuel shortages. The resort season is being disrupted. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians are methodically destroying gas stations on key roads.

Regarding the front line, the Russians broke through at Kostantynivka. The Ukrainians were planning to advance on Kursk or Bryansk again to divert attention from key areas of the front, like last time. They use this tactic when they start having problems at the front.

This breakthrough to Kostantynivka has probably thwarted their plans, because they'll have to redeploy reserves to Kostantynivka.

It feels like the Russians have somehow managed to eliminate the Ukrainians' drone parity. I could be wrong, of course, but we'll see. Kostiantynivka was taken very quickly. This city, if I'm not mistaken, is larger than Pokrovsk. We'll see if the Ukrainian Armed Forces can stabilize the front in this direction.

But still, this doesn't mean anything yet. You've probably heard that Abramovich came to Kyiv. This suggests that Putin isn't interested in continuing the war. And that says a lot. Abramovich is Putin's behind-the-scenes liaison with the West. Because Abramovich lives in London and maintains good relations with everyone. Abramovich was also present at the negotiations in Istanbul. His old business partner, Arakhamia, was also present in Istanbul, but on behalf of Ukraine.

Trump has completely disappeared into oblivion. No one listens to him anymore, neither Europe nor Zelensky. Now they're playing their own game, judging by Zelensky's last visit to Britain, where they looked very pleased, judging by their faces. Zelensky looks more cheerful and upbeat than ever. And Trump's days, in my opinion, are numbered. He won't pull through.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 5 months ago (21 children)

Putin actually addressed that in SPIEF, and he rejected any proposals. It could be Abramovich went there to give an ultimatum. It's very clear to me that Russia isn't going to compromise and isn't looking to end the war right now. I think we might be approaching the end game. The US is fucked in Iran, the war just restarted again, and the US economy is on the brink because they're running out of the reserve and won't be able to stabilize gas prices for long now. Europe is collapsing as well, and nobody in the west cares about Ukraine at this point. It's barely even mentioned in the news here now. It's over.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (20 children)

Putin actually addressed that in SPIEF, and he rejected any proposals.

Zelenskyy wrote a letter to Putin following a meeting with Abramovich. Putin responded to that letter with a refusal—one that was rude and boorish, accompanied by blackmail and threats. It was impossible to respond to that letter in any other way.

The fact is that during his visit to Kyiv, Abramovich met with Arakhamia—whom I mentioned earlier; Arakhamia is a business partner of Abramovich. Abramovich arranged a private conversation between Putin and Arakhamia. Mind you, not with Zelenskyy, but with Arakhamia! No one knows what they discussed, but Zelenskyy soon found out about it; it was only after learning this that he wrote an open letter to Putin—effectively burning all bridges. Arakhamia is the head of "Servant of the People," Zelenskyy's party.

On one hand, we are witnessing a certain internal political rift in Ukraine, which could eventually lead to an escalation of the domestic power struggle. On the other hand, the situation is not quite so simple; the fact that Putin deigned to speak with a secondary figure reflects poorly on him. Peace benefits figures like Arakhamia or Budanov, as one of them could become the future president—a president considered legitimate by Russia, provided they agree to Putin's terms (which would be more lenient than the Istanbul agreements).

While the situation on the ground has currently stabilized for the Russians, the blockade of Crimea and strikes deep within Russian territory are fueling growing discontent within Russian society—among both the elites and the general public. After all, most of the factories being hit belong to Russian oligarchs, and they are suffering colossal losses from the war every day.

Every night, hundreds of Ukrainian drones inflict real damage on the Russian economy. Last night, sirens sounded in several Russian regions for the first time since the war began. The geographical scope of the strikes is gradually expanding. Recently, there has also been widespread use of "Flamingo" missiles, which have a range of thousands of kilometers. The strikes have become combined operations. Russia cannot inflict equivalent damage in return because all major industrial and energy sector facilities have already been bombed repeatedly since the start of the war. What would truly make an impact is the destruction of the bridges across the Dnieper. Furthermore, the Russians are currently systematically dismantling the port of Odesa with their strikes. Yesterday, Ukraine struck the Sevastopol State Museum, a symbol of the city. We see Zelenskyy escalating the situation more and more. This implies that retaliatory strikes on Kyiv or the bridges work to his advantage; the greater the destruction, the more money flows in from Europe. And don't overlook nuances such as the fact that India is the largest supplier of diesel to Ukraine—fuel refined in India from Russian oil. Similarly, Romania and Hungary supply gas to Ukraine that they themselves receive from Russia. Ukraine's energy system has been fragmented into small, isolated segments; when a single facility is hit, it can be repaired very quickly. I believe that, under these circumstances, Ukraine will hold out at least until the autumn cold sets in. This is evident in Zelenskyy’s recent smug and brazen demeanor. He weathered the crisis surrounding the Mindich tapes and shifted his war strategy, yielding results. The current situation resembles World War I, with the key difference being that Germany did not possess nuclear weapons back then. Had uprisings not broken out in Germany at that time, they likely would have erupted in France shortly thereafter. We do not know for certain the extent of Russia's resilience compared to that of the united West. The question is who can suppress mass unrest—which will sooner or later erupt—for the longest time and most effectively. We are leaving Ukraine out of the equation; Zelensky and the united West have the Ukrainian people in a tight stranglehold.

As for Russia, it faces daily strikes, the intensity of which—at the very least—will not diminish...

Whether the Russians can turn the tide on the front line on a large scale remains a major question at this moment.

You can see that my view of the situation differs somewhat from yours.

I think we might be approaching the end game. The US is fucked in Iran, the war just restarted again, and the US economy is on the brink because they’re running out of the reserve and won’t be able to stabilize gas prices for long now. Europe is collapsing as well, and nobody in the west cares about Ukraine at this point. It’s barely even mentioned in the news here now. It’s over.

I wonder what would happen if Trump were impeached right now and a new president took office? How would they handle the Iran issue? Say, if the Democrats came to power, for instance.

It seems to me that the easiest thing to do is just blame everything on Trump and bow out.

Yes, I think Iran has a much better chance of decisively defeating the US than Russia does. Iran has a clear stance, whereas Russia constantly wavers. At times, Putin resembles Trump with his "red lines" and loud rhetoric. This is because Zelenskyy has adopted the Iranian strategy of warfare, where—despite the enemy's overwhelming superiority in weaponry and resources—one can still deal them very painful blows. There is currently no effective countermeasure against this type of strategy. The strikes target the economy for the most part, rather than military installations.

Yes, if Trump fails to stop the war, something bad might well start happening by autumn—both in Europe and in the US...

However, I don't think this will affect the war in Ukraine in the short term. Although rumors are circulating here that the war will end in the autumn—I haven't found the original source for this, but I'm hearing it from various quarters. We shall see.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 1 point 5 months ago (19 children)

I maintain that you have to look at the big picture here. The war isn't between Russia and Ukraine, it's between the west and the east. And the principle players are the US and China. So, the real question is which bloc can maintain discipline longer. As I've said many times before, Russia collapsing or becoming politically unstable would be a disaster for China. They rely on Russian food and energy imports, and Russia protects China's western flank. If Russia was destabilized or balkanized, then it would become China's Ukraine. Therefore, it's obvious that China cannot allow that to happen under any circumstances. If Russia was genuinely in trouble then China would do everything in its power to bail them out. There's no two ways about it.

Given this unarguable fact, the next question is who is in a better position to provide support. Can the US help Europe more than China can help Russia? Again, the answer is obvious, China being the industrial superpower, is in a far better position to support Russia materially than the US is to support Europe. In fact, the US itself is largely dependent on Chinese imports to function. And China cutting off critical things like rare earths is already affecting military production in America.

So, given all that, there's only one way this war can go. You can look at all the palace intrigue, and the drones, and all the media about attacks on Russia, but what I explain above is the underlying hard reality of the situation. Everything else is just surface noise. If Russia loses then China is fucked, and given that China is the strongest player here that just will not happen.

And I don't see what they can do to get out of Iran now. The problem is that Israel is now in an existential crisis, and they will not allow the US to leave. Given the amount of influence Israel has over the US, they will continue to drag them into deeper conflict with Iran. We can already see how the war has restarted and likely to escalate now that the US is attacking stuff like water facilities in Iran.

I can't see how anything changes in a major way in Ukraine before autumn, but once the global energy shock hits, that's when things are going to start moving fast. Right now, the US and other countries are frantically dumping their oil reserves on the market to depress the prices, but those are going to run out very soon. After that there's just not going to be enough oil to go around.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (18 children)

I maintain that you have to look at the big picture here. The war isn’t between Russia and Ukraine, it’s between the west and the east. And the principle players are the US and China. So, the real question is which bloc can maintain discipline longer. As I’ve said many times before, Russia collapsing or becoming politically unstable would be a disaster for China. They rely on Russian food and energy imports, and Russia protects China’s western flank. If Russia was destabilized or balkanized, then it would become China’s Ukraine. Therefore, it’s obvious that China cannot allow that to happen under any circumstances. If Russia was genuinely in trouble then China would do everything in its power to bail them out. There’s no two ways about it.

To you, Russia’s defeat means Russia’s capitulation—something that is hardly likely. Yes, you’re right.

For me, Russia’s defeat means having Nazis left in my city.

Yes, you are absolutely right: China won’t allow Russia to be defeated, but it has no need for a strong Russia, either.

Freezing the conflict would be quite acceptable to China. It is also not in China’s interest for the West to lift sanctions on Russia; that is a fact.

And another fact is that China is profiting handsomely from this war. It sells dual-use goods to both sides of the conflict.

Yes, I agree that China acts solely in its own interests... its GDP is skyrocketing. China is prospering—that is indisputable.

Given this unarguable fact, the next question is who is in a better position to provide support. Can the US help Europe more than China can help Russia?

Yes, if it wanted to, China could help Russia win. But let me repeat: if it wanted to!

You can see that the US and Europe have essentially gone all-in right now; they are stretched to their limits—especially considering the war in Iraq. Meanwhile, China is taking it easy. Confucianism advocates for victory without a fight. That’s certainly wise.

I’d like that too—sitting on the couch with popcorn, watching a brutal slaughter, and winning in the process. That’s not something I know how to do; I guess you have to be really smart for that... )))

If I’d made smart moves like that in my life, I swear to you, I’d be a millionaire by now! There was a time when I could have climbed the ladder of success by stepping right over the heads of my loved ones and partners. I could have shortchanged my workers while raking in huge profits. I thought that was the right way to do things—that somewhere up in heaven, it would be duly recognized... what a naive fool I was!

But when I suddenly found myself cast aside by life, I had an epiphany. First, I stopped going to church because I realized it only "helps" the rich and successful. Second, I realized that in the capitalist world, you won't get anywhere if you’re honest, open, and decent—you simply won't survive. That’s a dogma, Comrade! A Biblical one, at that. ))))

The capitalist world is a three-headed serpent; the names of those heads are cunning, meanness, and betrayal!

And I don’t see what they can do to get out of Iran now. The problem is that Israel is now in an existential crisis, and they will not allow the US to leave. Given the amount of influence Israel has over the US, they will continue to drag them into deeper conflict with Iran. We can already see how the war has restarted and likely to escalate now that the US is attacking stuff like water facilities in Iran.

Yes, I fully agree—however cynical it may sound—that Russia was lucky in this regard.

but once the global energy shock hits

In southern Russia, especially in Crimea, people are facing major fuel shortages. I agree with you that this won't be fatal for the situation at the front, but for the people, it’s a huge problem.

Listen to this guy—he’s Russian; I’ve marked the spot. Just keep in mind that he might be downplaying the issue, since he’s a Komsomolskaya Pravda correspondent.

https://youtu.be/hGi66DHc5TI?t=309

He’s a war correspondent of this caliber:

https://youtu.be/UoEqtyhCf-g?t=185

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 5 months ago (17 children)

I don't think Russia can stay stable if the conflict is frozen though. That's just not gonna fly politically, and political instability creates a risk for China in the long term. You gotta keep in mind that Chinese tend to have a very long perspective on things, and they're not looking for quick wins. They know the west is coming after them next, and they understand perfectly well that the war is bigger than Russia and Ukraine. If they don't defeat the west here, then the west gets a chance to regroup and try again. This is the same danger Russia and China face here together. And when Russia wins, it's till going to be highly dependent on China economically which means China will continue to exercise a ton of influence over Russia. On top of that, Chinese will probably get a ton of reconstruction and resource development contracts in Ukraine. All of that cannot happen if there's a frozen conflict. So, there's simply way more to gain by winning than letting this fester.

Letting the war drag out to drain the west certainly does seem to be what China is doing. I think they're aiming for a comprehensive victory here where the west becomes so depleted that they have to accept a new world order. You say they're supplying both sides, but here's what's actually happening https://www.mining.com/web/us-business-group-says-some-critical-minerals-are-nearly-unobtainable-from-china/

China cut the west off from critical inputs they need to produce weapons. So, now the west isn't able to restock what they've spent over 4 years in Ukraine and now in Iran. The inventories here keep going down, and there's nothing the west can do about it lacking its own industries.

Listen to this guy

And this is what I was saying about Bunaov being shuffled to the head of the army. The strategy is shifting towards naked terrorism now.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (16 children)

And when Russia wins, it’s till going to be highly dependent on China economically which means China will continue to exercise a ton of influence over Russia.

There are various possible scenarios. In one of them, Russia wins, and relations with Europe—along with the Nord Stream pipelines—are restored. This scenario is not in China's interest.

So, there’s simply way more to gain by winning than letting this fester.

A moderate victory—that’s optimal for China.

China cut the west off from critical inputs they need to produce weapons. So, now the west isn’t able to restock what they’ve spent over 4 years in Ukraine and now in Iran. The inventories here keep going down, and there’s nothing the west can do about it lacking its own industries.

I would really like it to be that way!

And this is what I was saying about Bunaov being shuffled to the head of the army.

At the moment, Syrsky is handling his duties reasonably well; he is doing everything he can, regardless of the cost in casualties. So far, however, there have been no major breakthroughs. Besides, one has to hold the front line, not just wage a campaign of terror.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 5 months ago (15 children)

I really can't see how relations with Europe could be restored at this point. There would have to be a revolution in Europe before that happens.

And I'm just going by what Zelensky said when Blumenthal visited. They openly stated that they're going to be shuffling Syrsky out by fall, and it's clear the directive is coming from the US. It could be that Americans are hoping to transition to something like Chechnya soon.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago (14 children)

I really can’t see how relations with Europe could be restored at this point. There would have to be a revolution in Europe before that happens.

Yes, I agree; the EU looks relatively united right now. Trump has backed down, the global fuel crisis has been averted, and while there will be complications, they won't be critical—unless Bibi sticks his long nose in again. Because, it seems to me, if the war ends, Netanyahu will be ousted. For him, just as for Zelensky, the end of the war spells political death.

And Trump has finally realized he can't break Iran.

Trump is shifting his focus back to Ukraine. That "dynamic duo" will be heading to Moscow again.

I don't get it—isn't Putin tired of this? Flirting with Trump again, sending warm birthday wishes... The circus act is starting all over again. After his setback with Iran, Trump needs to do something before autumn: either secure peace in Ukraine, attack Cuba, or something similar. I think he’s lost his appetite for war after that last incident, so he’ll opt for "peace" in Ukraine. What leverage he’ll use this time, though, is unclear to me.

The G7 summit is taking place today, and—as always—Ukraine has crossed yet another red line. There was a massive strike on Moscow. This is bound to happen regularly from now on; things will only escalate.

Yes, given the unfavorable situation at the front, Ukraine has little choice but to resort to deep-strike attacks and terrorism as a countermeasure. However, this is unlikely to affect the actual frontline; it is aimed at the civilian population to sow fear and create hardships—financial and otherwise. That said, I believe Russia has been preparing for this since winter, back when the blocking of social media platforms began.

I suspect Putin won't make any rash moves right now; he has made it clear that he is banking on developments on the ground—at the front. We shall see; perhaps he knows something more.

They openly stated that they’re going to be shuffling Syrsky out by fall, and it’s clear the directive is coming from the US. It could be that Americans are hoping to transition to something like Chechnya soon.

If we’re talking about Chechnya, it probably would have been better to make Budanov president and install a military government.

By the way, there has been a noticeable rise in public opposition to the TCK [military recruitment offices] recently. Something will have to be done about this in the foreseeable future, too. Incidents of mobs beating up TCK officers have become more frequent. I’m not saying this will necessarily lead to an uprising anytime soon, though. It’s just that TCK officers feel very uncomfortable in the city because everyone hates them—both Western and Eastern Ukrainians. It turns out that a common enemy unites both the "Banderites" and the Russian-speaking population of southeastern Ukraine. You can see it all on social media here. There is growing hatred directed at both Zelensky and the TCK. Even those who want Ukraine to win have come to hate Zelensky and the TCK. It’s like a parallel reality here. Everyone here—the ones with "pots on their heads"

https://youtu.be/H2Pratb_TNw?t=52

—seems to have developed bipolar disorder.

I used to say that being American isn't a nationality, but a diagnosis—back when I listened to American politicians or watched CNN. It was nothing but contradictions. Now I see the same thing happening with Ukrainians. I’ve now fully realized from personal experience what American propaganda is all about.

If you dig deeper, it’s not even just American propaganda; it’s Goebbels-style propaganda—the kind that turns people not only into schizophrenics but also into cruel, ruthless individuals.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 5 months ago (13 children)

I don't think the crisis has been averted. It's going to take a long time before energy prices get back to normal because restarting production can't happen overnight. Just clearing the backlog of tankers in the gulf is going to take over a year. I also don't see Israel stopping attacking Lebanon which means the fighting is likely to restart soon.

Trump wants to get out desperately, but he has no way out because Israel won't play along. From Russian perspective it makes sense to play along though because it drives Europeans up the wall. And I don't see what leverage he has left either.

And completely agree that strikes just serve to remind people in Russia why the war is necessary. The overall situation on the front won't change, but it will help with firming up public support to remove the threat.

It does look like Russia is ramping up deep strikes on infrastructure especially now that the US ran out of patriots during their Iran fiasco. I think this will be significant over time, and affect logistics going forward which will accelerate the events on the front.

I saw a video just yesterday of some kid beating up TCK cause they took his dad. Yes, public is definitely starting to turn on them.

And American style propaganda does in fact have its origins with Goebbels, I might've sent this before. It explains everything very clearly. https://royallib.com/read/artemov_vladimir/psihologicheskaya_voyna_v_strategii_imperializma.html#0

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 4 months ago (12 children)

I don’t think the crisis has been averted. It’s going to take a long time before energy prices get back to normal because restarting production can’t happen overnight. Just clearing the backlog of tankers in the gulf is going to take over a year. I also don’t see Israel stopping attacking Lebanon which means the fighting is likely to restart soon.

Trump wants to get out desperately, but he has no way out because Israel won’t play along. From Russian perspective it makes sense to play along though because it drives Europeans up the wall. And I don’t see what leverage he has left either.

Based on the results of the G7 forum, we see that everything is repeating itself again. Trump has once again been talked into a false sense of security by the European ghouls, along with Zelensky. And all of this is precisely connected to the strikes deep into Russia.

Trump has once again sided with Ukraine, and the narrative that Russia must leave the occupied territories has also begun to be heard again. Trump no longer wants peace.

Moscow was bombed again today; this will become a frequent occurrence. The drones that strike Russia using artificial intelligence are American Hornet drones, which the US is testing in Ukraine. Yesterday, such a drone hit a bus carrying Belarusian children who were on their way to the Black Sea for a vacation.

Regarding fuel, every country has reserves, and until these reserves are replenished, the price of oil will not fall. Yes, the price of oil will remain high for some time. That is, if the agreement is signed. Let's wait until Friday.

And completely agree that strikes just serve to remind people in Russia why the war is necessary.

Right now, everyone in Russia is demanding radical measures from Putin. It's understandable: Everyone's talking about bridges across the Dnieper. They're very upset that this hasn't been done yet. This is what I see in Russian chats and war-related public groups. You understand that after the latest strikes on Moscow, the demands will become louder. No one could have imagined that the war would reach Moscow.

It does look like Russia is ramping up deep strike

In any case, the blows will be uneven, with the exception of the bridges across the Dnieper.

Russia will have to endure.

I saw a video just yesterday of some kid beating up TCK cause they took his dad. Yes, public is definitely starting to turn on them.

There's a new trend now: a grandfather with a shovel)))

But that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about a recent incident in Kyiv where several hundred people confronted the TCC and the police. The police and the TCC fled. This is the first such mass incident in Kyiv.

He's a very interesting author; I've never heard of him.

His books are still very relevant today.

https://publ.lib.ru/ARCHIVES/A/ARTEMOV_Vladimir_L%27vovich/_Artemov_V.L..html

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 1 point 4 months ago (11 children)

I don't think anybody takes what Trump says seriously at this point. He'll say one thing than another, it literally changes day to day. What matters is that the US is exhausted now. They just lost a major war against Iran, their weapons stocks are depleted, and China has them by the balls. So, Trump is doing a bit of posturing right now, but it's not going to translate into anything material because the coffers are empty.

And I can't see Russia taking out the bridges because it's almost certain they plan to use them. The goal of the Europeans is to provoke a big reaction right now so they can rally their public. The support for the war is at all time low in Europe right now, so they're trying to put pressure on Putin to do something big to start scaring people how Russians are coming for them.

Artemov explains everything correctly, and reading his book really helped me see how American propaganda machine works a lot more clearly. The direct inspiration from the nazis and the evolution of the narrative was very interesting to read about as well.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 4 months ago (10 children)

I don’t think anybody takes what Trump says seriously at this point. He’ll say one thing than another, it literally changes day to day. What matters is that the US is exhausted now. They just lost a major war against Iran, their weapons stocks are depleted, and China has them by the balls. So, Trump is doing a bit of posturing right now, but it’s not going to translate into anything material because the coffers are empty.

As we expected, Bibi won't allow the war to end, as that would mean the end of his career. Negotiations have broken down.

And I can’t see Russia taking out the bridges because it’s almost certain they plan to use them. The goal of the Europeans is to provoke a big reaction right now so they can rally their public. The support for the war is at all time low in Europe right now, so they’re trying to put pressure on Putin to do something big to start scaring people how Russians are coming for them.

They started destroying bridges across the Dnieper in the south. Where supplies come from Romania.

They turned on our hot water. Just so you understand, before the war, we never had hot water in the summer. The last time we had hot water in the summer was under the USSR. I still don't understand how they do it. By the way, they bombed Thermal Power Plant 5 again yesterday, and the lights were flickering.

The support for the war is at all time low in Europe right now, so they’re trying to put pressure on Putin to do something big to start scaring people how Russians are coming for them.

Yes, there's a massive propaganda campaign on TV, along with strikes deep into Russia. Yes, it's putting pressure on ordinary people in Russia. This will continue for several more months.

By the way, let's get back to our long-suffering sheep.

A Chinese proposal for interceptor drones for the Ukrainian Armed Forces has leaked online. These aren't even dual-use items anymore. And you're saying someone's going to run out of something...)))) If it all goes wrong, the Chinese will help...)))))

This infuriates me so much, Comrade!

China is so mired in this capitalist shambles, where profit is king, that it's disgusting to watch.

And China won't sever relations with the US, just as the US won't sever relations with China. Too much is tied to it, involving enormous mutual risks.

The US is imposing tariffs on Chinese goods. No, China isn't offended by stopping supplying these goods; China is circumventing the sanctions by reselling the goods to the US through Mexico.

Artemov explains everything correctly, and reading his book really helped me see how American propaganda machine works a lot more clearly. The direct inspiration from the nazis and the evolution of the narrative was very interesting to read about as well.

This vile lie was exposed back in the USSR. Then the USSR collapsed, and we were forced to believe this nonsense again!!!

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (9 children)

They started destroying bridges across the Dnieper in the south. Where supplies come from Romania.

Amazed it took them this long to finally start cutting supply lines from Europe.

oh and here's how relations between China and the west are actually like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVOS6RVr6H0

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 4 months ago (8 children)

oh and here’s how relations between China and the west are actually like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVOS6RVr6H0

At the beginning of the video, the situation in the US is similar to the current situation in Russia. There's also something going on with government bond rates and depositor confidence, only the numbers are different. All those forecasts can be projected onto Russia as well.

I also really liked that Ma was hit with US sanctions..)))

This can also be mirrored in Russia, where Russian oligarchs are hit with sanctions and are willing to do anything, even betrayal, to get the US to lift the sanctions. Oligarchs are saboteurs because their actions and intentions can run counter to state interests. Even if, as I've been told here, oligarchs in China have no influence over the state.

It's hard to imagine how much of his money Ma has taken out of China. He's essentially robbing the country.

Amazed it took them this long to finally start cutting supply lines from Europe.

No, I don't think it will be systemic.

For now, everyone is waiting to see what Russia will do. There's a strange silence.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 1 point 4 months ago (7 children)

Seems like what Russia is going to do is take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk at which point they will control all of Donbas and there's going to be a big panic in the west. I personally agree with the analysis here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xgcv0PiLJTY

Basically, Russia is winning and right now situation is under control. Any type of escalation will introduce uncertainty, so there is little point to gamble by doing that.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 4 months ago (6 children)

Seems like what Russia is going to do is take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk

It would be a major success for Russia if it could capture Sloviansk and Kramatorsk by the end of the year.

But that is not the whole of Donbas.

For the most part, everything depends on how Russia handles strikes deep within its own territory.

Last night, Ukraine launched an attack involving more than 600 drones.

Russia is currently trying to push drone launch sites back beyond the Dnieper River. They are destroying gas stations and truck stops where drone launchers might potentially be located; on this side of the Dnieper, the Russians have already destroyed 160 gas stations. So far, there are no fuel shortages in our city.

In Russia—even as far away as Siberia—there are massive, miles-long lines for gasoline.

As I said back in the spring, Russia needs a decisive push to turn the tide. Right now, things aren't going very well for Russia in that regard.

Russia is also currently losing the information war.

Basically, Russia is winning and right now situation is under control.

Not quite, Comrade. Right now, the situation at the front is mixed. The AFU is still conducting successful counter-offensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Russia has lost the territory it had previously captured there.

Russia is seeing successes in other sectors as well, though the pace is not as dynamic. In some areas, the situation has been at a standstill for months.

You surely realize, Comrade, that Russia’s very slow rate of advance—combined with the fact that Ukraine can strike Moscow—is precisely what convinced Trump to drastically change his opinion.

No matter how weak the US might be, Russia is going to face a very difficult time in the coming months.

One more brief note: Ukraine struck deep inside Russia with Storm Shadow missiles for the first time—this set a precedent.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 4 months ago (1 child)

Oh just can't continue down the thread, might have to start a new one. I basically can't reply below this reply anymore. :)

And yes, it's not a given that it will happen, but we are very much moving towards that becoming a real possibility. The reality is that Russia needs to restore deterrent, and doing nothing will only mean continued escalation on the part of the west because there are no consequences.

There is of course a second view here which is that European economies are imploding, and it's possible that regime changes might actually start happening in major European countries. The winter isn't just going to be bad for Ukraine, it's going to be very bad for Europe too. European gas storage is already tapped out, and there's no way to refill thanks to the war on Iran that's ongoing. https://energynewsbeat.co/international-news/europe-is-at-its-lowest-gas-storage-in-15-years

A political crisis in Germany, France, or UK is extremely likely at this point. So, Russia simply absorbing the current escalations may be a rational strategy. Doing something like strikes in Europe could be counterproductive if Russia expects Europe to collapse politically and economically in the near future.

Meanwhile, the whole Anchorage thing has a second dimension to it which is creating a lot of tension within NATO. The war isn't really about Ukraine in the end, and if Russia thought they could peel the US off from Europe then it was worth pursuing that. Ukraine is just a proxy here the west is using, but the real problem is with NATO itself.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 4 months ago

Hi, Comrade!

I haven't written in a long time—I've been struggling with depression.

The news is more positive this time. You know that I mostly rely on intuition when picking up on shifts in online sentiment.

I think Russia will weather the gasoline shortages. There has been a significant breakthrough—significant given the realities of modern warfare—by the AFU near Vovchansk. Here in the city, gas stations are getting hit every day. The mayor appeared on TV yesterday—I hadn't seen him in ages—complaining about it. But so far, we haven't had any gasoline shortages.

Oh just can’t continue down the thread, might have to start a new one. I basically can’t reply below this reply anymore. :)

Comrade, can we post our conversations in the section you created?

https://lemmy.ml/post/47650869

Is that section open to everyone? I’d like it to be—I want to meet interesting new people here.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 4 months ago (1 child)

Basically, if Ukraine can disrupt fuel supply in Russia, Russia can disrupt it in Ukraine on a far bigger scale. And that's what's happening now that they started attacking gas stations and other infrastructure systematically.

Russia has been shit at information war since the very start. They never really cared about it. It's possibly a mistake, but that's just how it is.

And we have this same discussion literally every few months. You see the propaganda campaign, start talking about how Russia is in trouble, then a month later it turns out none of it actually mattered and Russia is still advancing. This has been going on for 4 years now.

I don't think the situation is mixed at all. Ukraine is about to lose key strategic strongholds and there's nothing past them all the way to Dnepr. Meanwhile, the gains Ukraine makes are ephemeral because there's no manpower to hold them. Even when the AFU manages to take some territory, it ends up getting rolled back almost immediately.

I do think we'll see the west throw all they can into the war now because we're coming to the end here. And yes, the whole drone campaign was for Trump, he's the audience. They convinced him to get back into it now. But you understand that the US hasn't been able to do anything for the past 4 years, and they don't have any new tricks to play here.

And you saw what Putin and others are saying in Russia now. These strikes are NATO strikes into Russia and now there is a serious talk of retaliation against NATO countries directly. I think this could happen.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 4 months ago

Basically, if Ukraine can disrupt fuel supply in Russia, Russia can disrupt it in Ukraine on a far bigger scale.

Yes, but as you realize, strikes deep inside Russia are dangerous primarily due to their impact on the media narrative, which undermines Russia's internal stability.

Did you see that a new Prigozhin has appeared recently? Peskov has already spoken about him. He is threatening Putin, just like Prigozhin did. This means the Russian elites have now gotten involved—exactly what we discussed earlier.

However, it seems to me that the situation inside Russia remains stable for now. Everything is still under control.

And that’s what’s happening now that they started attacking gas stations and other infrastructure systematically.

Drones are buzzing constantly; yesterday they bombed a gas station where I used to fill up often. That’s what I heard.

For now, though, there are no shortages or panic buying of gasoline in the city. But the situation is worsening; Russia has changed its attack tactics. There have been up to two hundred drones a day—no more than that—for the past two weeks.

And we have this same discussion literally every few months. You see the propaganda campaign, start talking about how Russia is in trouble, then a month later it turns out none of it actually mattered and Russia is still advancing. This has been going on for 4 years now.

No, Comrade, I’m arguing from the opposite perspective—or rather, trying to strike a middle ground.

After all, the propaganda claims Russia is losing; I’ve never said that. Russia won’t lose, but it might not win.

It wouldn't have won anyway if the Anchorage agreements had been implemented! And those agreements looked nothing like a victory! They looked more like a disgrace.

That’s the premise I’m working from, not the propaganda.

In essence, I’m saying the same thing Putin is saying,

https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6a411d079a79474cc1ecfd21

...except that, unlike Putin, I don’t have that rock-solid confidence that things will end well for me. Do you understand? For me! I couldn't care less if they celebrate an imaginary victory back in Russia—not if I’m still stuck in this "prison"!

By my count, this is already the fourth "difficult phase." They somehow overcame the first three—the "gesture of goodwill" near Kyiv, the retreat from Kherson, Prigozhin’s mutiny... and now, the strikes on oil refineries and Moscow.

Each of these "difficult phases" narrowed the scope of the Special Military Operation; eventually, it all shrank down to the size of the Donbas...

It’s as if time has dragged us back to square one.

I don’t think the situation is mixed at all. Ukraine is about to lose key strategic strongholds and there’s nothing past them all the way to Dnepr. Meanwhile, the gains Ukraine makes are ephemeral because there’s no manpower to hold them. Even when the AFU manages to take some territory, it ends up getting rolled back almost immediately.

The situation is a bit different now. Ukrainians have advanced and dug in at two locations; they’ve been building up their forces there for several weeks. The Russians can't dislodge them...

Wow... that was loud—those are guided aerial bombs; they fly in pairs. I'll find out later what exactly it was.

Anyway, back to the point.

Right now—let me repeat—right now, neither side has an overwhelming advantage!

I do think we’ll see the west throw all they can into the war now because we’re coming to the end here. And yes, the whole drone campaign was for Trump, he’s the audience. They convinced him to get back into it now. But you understand that the US hasn’t been able to do anything for the past 4 years, and they don’t have any new tricks to play here.

Also, how do I turn off this fucking Starlink!

And you saw what Putin and others are saying in Russia now. These strikes are NATO strikes into Russia and now there is a serious talk of retaliation against NATO countries directly. I think this could happen.

At the moment, I don't see any signs pointing to that—though, of course, I could be wrong.

A strike would have to begin with a demonstrative nuclear test in an uninhabited area, followed by a broadcast to the entire world as a warning. Only then would the actual strike follow. Putin won't even commit to a demonstration. China might not like the idea.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 1 point 4 months ago (1 child)

we reached max comment depth for the thread :)

I don't think these strikes undermine Russia's internal stability in any meaningful way. What they do is harden the opinion that Putin is not pursuing the war hard enough, and that there needs to be direct retaliation against Europe. At this point, I think it's a very likely scenario to unfold in the next few months if things keep going the way they are. They already named the factories in Europe, so we know what the targets will be.

I expect it will be done exactly as Karaganov is suggesting. First, they'll do a conventional strike with an Oreshnik, and if Europe doesn't get the message, it'll be a tactical nuclear strike next as a demonstration.

And I just cannot imagine how the current regime in Ukraine survives this. That would basically be a return to status quo, and I don't see how that would be palatable for Russia. Wherever Russia stops militarily, it is almost certain that there will be a compliant government in Ukraine afterwards.

And AFU can dig in, but this has always worked out the same way. I see no reason to expect anything different this time, especially given how the manpower shortage is only getting worse.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 4 months ago

we reached max comment depth for the thread :)

What should we do now?

Do we need to go to the section you created for me and our Chinese colleague?

I don’t think these strikes undermine Russia’s internal stability in any meaningful way.

From what I can see right now, Russia is holding up for the time being. But don't forget, winter is coming; it’s going to be cold for both Ukraine and Russia—or at least parts of Russia. It’s a good thing winters in Crimea aren't that cold.

One thing is certain: we’re going to be totally screwed this winter. I was planning to throw out some old furniture, but now I won't—it’ll serve as firewood for the winter.

I expect it will be done exactly as Karaganov is suggesting.

Look, Сomrade, get this straight: you’re essentially listening to someone on the level of Medvedev—not even Peskov, who at least knows how to choose his words carefully.

This is an advisor to Putin.

Desire alone isn't enough; you need political will—something Russia is, to put it mildly, rather short on. There are so many internal contradictions within the country.

"I think we are all concerned about the same thing. I don't think there is a single person in this country whose primary concern is anything other than the speedy cessation of hostilities; that goes without saying."

— Sberbank CEO Herman Gref, July 1 (yesterday).

Ending the war and achieving victory are two different things. And you realize this isn't just some blogger panicking—it's the head of the state-owned bank.

Besides, China would 100% not support a nuclear strike.

Right now, that could only happen in the event of aggression from Ukraine; that is precisely why Lukashenko went to "pay his respects" to Xi.

They were coordinating potential scenarios. Lukashenko told Xi: "If Ukraine makes a move, I’ll hit them with nukes—Vova is fine with it." Xi tacitly agreed. We can see this in how Lukashenko has suddenly grown bolder.

The Anglo-Saxons took a look at that... thought it over... and decided it was best not to go there!

And I just cannot imagine how the current regime in Ukraine survives this. That would basically be a return to status quo, and I don’t see how that would be palatable for Russia. Wherever Russia stops militarily, it is almost certain that there will be a compliant government in Ukraine afterwards.

This is a major problem for Russia right now. They don't even know what to do themselves.

If Russia were absolutely confident in itself, it wouldn't have spent a year parroting the "Spirit of Anchorage" line; it would have simply taken action—silently!

People in Russia are already laughing at this "Spirit of Anchorage" notion—even the panic-mongering bloggers! They are demanding political will from the state to at least take out the bridges across the Dnieper—before things escalate to a nuclear strike, как до Киева раком!

They’re just bridges. Instead of destroying them completely, you could just punch holes in them—patching the holes takes only a week, so the bridges aren't totally wrecked. That’s what one of the panic-stricken bloggers suggested to Belousov.

If you tell me Putin knows what he’s doing, I’ll reply: the escalation has already reached the nuclear level. You could argue that that’s exactly what Putin knows! Yet a couple of years ago, this could have been resolved with the snap of a finger! You remember the time when the West was afraid to supply heavy weaponry, right? That was the moment to act!!!

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 5 months ago

So far, Lucas has not been spotted in Ukraine.

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