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If you believe Superhuman AI will serve & obey us, you probably think that Strippers like you
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[–] 90 points 5 months ago (78 children)

Do you belive current iteration of AI has the potential to become superhuman? I think it's like trying to get to the moon by building a better ladder.

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  • [–] 57 points 5 months ago (24 children)

    LLMs are a dead end.

    Their only value is showing how fucked up our society is.

    Suddenly and very publicly copyrights only matter if you're poor, electricity is wasted on the poor, water is not for the poor... it's always been like this, but the LLM bandwagon really showcased all of that in one shiny package.

    The only good thing could be gathering public knowledge into a single space, but they don't even do that.

    So it's all net negative in my eyes.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago (4 children)

    How can I prove quickly and definitely that I know what I'm talking about?

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  • [–] 6 points 5 months ago* (15 children)

    I respectfully disagree with the dead end part of your argument. A dead end would be if they provided no value.

    While the environmental and social downsides are massive negatives on the tech, it is actually doing something.

    Past iterations are completely useless, but more recent iterations show us a more polished side to LLMs that actually do enhance how we do some things.

    Is it worth it? My gut says no, but its both too late and too early to call it. (late in the environmental and societal impact, too early in the tech iteration)

    As far as the "dead end" argument goes, I have to say that's a hard disagree. Humanity is filled with technological advances that "stand on the shoulders of giants" and improve on previous techs. Even if LLMs themselves don't prove to be the thing that we've been promised by the people driving it, it is taking us one step closer to AGI (whether that's a good goal or not, that's still up for debate)

    From here on, I think there's still quite a bit these models can improve, and I hope a lot of that improvement goes into making it more energy efficient, more water efficient in turn.

    If by a dead end you mean that we can't reach an AGI from an LLM, I think that's correct, however an LLM might help us figure out what is needed for an AGI.

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  • [–] 20 points 5 months ago (10 children)

    You didn’t actually say what you think LLM’s are enhancing. Just that you feel that they are. Honestly I think that’s the biggest part, they’re big shiny things that look like they’re doing a lot. But they actually aren’t. LLMs are chatbots and they will never be anything more than just chatbots.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago (6 children)

    Summarizing and finding codeblocks. Fucking A+.

    So much so, that it's pretty much 100% necessary in software engineering now. And I hate it that I'm forced to use something that I know is so detrimental in other aspects.

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  • [–] 3 points 5 months ago (2 children)

    I used it to make a dialog system in a video game. It made it, but it was needlessly complex and ten times as long as the code needed to be. No thanks, i don't need a buggy mess that's unmaintainable.

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  • [–] 3 points 5 months ago

    Yes, I've made a dialog system before. The context I found myself in was a game jam with a short amount of time using an engine I hadn't used in years.

    Thought it would help instead of following a tutorial. But honestly, by the end of the jam, I really didn't feel like rewriting the dialog system bcz it was so messy.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    The fact that you think it’s bad at one thing in your list but adequate at the others is part of the problem. It’s bad at all of those things, because it’s a chatbot. Admittedly a very advanced chatbot, but still just a chatbot.

    The most important take away here is what of your list was impossible before LLMs? Because the reality is that absolutely everything that you mentioned was possible before LLMs. All that LLMs have added is the chat interface part.

    Granted, the technology that allowed LLM’s is likely to be very useful and already has been in places like protein folding, but that happened before LLMs.

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  • [–] 4 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    If it was used in a research as a step? Perchance.

    Pouring everything we have into it? Dumbest fucking decision of our lives.

    We could have put all that effort into previous versions and could tweak them enough to gather perhaps slightly worse results, maybe even better, we will never know.

    Making this shit more efficient is to me also dumb.

    What in the fuck are we doing that requires this shit? It helps with coding? We can make better frameworks. Translations? We had those before, even TTS. Emails? Just use a template. The other side is not reading that slop anyway. So what exactly are we doing here?

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  • [–] 7 points 5 months ago

    Regardless, if someone's trying to get to the moon so they can enslave us all and rule over us from their moon fortress, I don't care if all they've got is a really long ladder, I'm breaking the ladder.

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  • [–] 12 points 5 months ago (19 children)

    The thing is that neural networks in general (and LLM specifically) aren't creative. It can learn from input and gets a lot more input than a human, that's why it is better and faster in standardized tests (which are more often than not part of the input) and maybe can combine different things but it wouldn't ever have a genuine idea and much less a will of its own or a consciousness

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  • [–] 12 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    Nah, people put together stuff randomly all the time. Things that most people are aware of tend to be filtered to stuff that works together.

    It is no more creative than putting pieces of paper with things on them and pulling them randomly out of a hat. AI can't creatively come up with something new to write on one of those pieces of paper.

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  • [–] 4 points 5 months ago (6 children)

    Except LLMs are the worst of both worlds in that respect. In order to work in a robot factory, its output needs to be reliable and repeatable, ideally across as wide a range of inputs as possible. LLMs .... are very much not that. They're also only as 'skilled' as their training data, which thanks to the morally bankrupt scraping of every source the AI companies can get their grubby hands on, is of enormously variable quality - and because of the nature of LLMs, it will never be better than its training data. The average quality of its output will, in fact, be the average of its training data.

    It's possible for LLMs to be creative - in the sense that it can output novel sentences - except that as you increase its 'creativity' (temperature) beyond the default that most of the chatbots out there have, the quality plummets. It still can't solve complex problems though, because even if it does have an internal model of how certain things function, it can't come close to the complexity of what humans can hold in their brains - or perhaps cannot abstract portions of their model in the same way - as evidenced by their utter failure to work through any problem that has more than five or so layers. This is a problem that sees diminishing returns with increased parameter count - the primary metric that is driving the enormous data centers being built.

    LLMs are a solution looking for a problem, and aside from 'bs for people who don't want to make any decisions in their day-to-day life' and 'scam generator', there doesn't seem to be very many niches that they are actually good at filling.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago (4 children)

    figuring out what we should do with all the computational power and potential labour

    The first priority should always be figuring out a way to produce very cheap and healthy food, housing and clothing for everybody.

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  • [–] 4 points 5 months ago (5 children)

    Everytime someone says to a worker in a factory "figure it out" it involves creativity in some way.

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  • [–] 6 points 5 months ago

    Yes LLM's can beat humans in many tasks. But the jump from super spell checker to real AI is still huge.

    It's like the 1960's where computers were beating chess players. (Not grand masters but they could beat regular people.) Because a computer could out think a regular human, people assumed that with more resources, we would have real AI in 25 year. That was Hal from 2001 Space Odyssey. It seemed very reasonable in 1968.

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  • [–] 21 points 5 months ago (12 children)
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  • [–] 3 points 5 months ago*

    This meme implies that AI data centers have been around for a long time. They have not.

    This response implies that you actually understand the point being made. You don't. If you think this is only about AI datacenters, I have to assume you're letting the AI 'think' for you. Otherwise, that says a lot about you, and none of it is positive.

    AI have been running in datacenters for over a decade, it didn't just spring up overnight while the companies are building datacenters that cost billions in hardware that will be replaced in less than 5-10 years. They might as well be setting the cash on fire, it would harm the planet less than the result of pissing away billions of dollars on datacenters that may be bankrupt in under a decade when the AI companies start actually charging for cost and hardware that will need replaced before then.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    In 2018, passing the Turing test was still the gold standard in computer intelligence.

    We used the same AI from the 1950s to blow past it. Nothing fundamentally changed. The only difference is that our hardware finally caught up.

    What makes you think that throwing more hardware at it isn't the solution?

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago*

    The Turing test was never a gold standard for anything. We talked about it because it was an obvious early milestone that only needed more hardware to pass it. Having passed it puts our AIs on par with various human toddlers and some older exotic birds.

    Beating chess masters is more interesting. Playing Jeopardy is interesting.

    But none of these things is particularly useful.

    There's also useful stuff happening, like basic toddler shape recognition.

    But none of it points toward unstopped sentient robot overlords.

    Some interesting stuff that points towards stupid simple robot overlords has heen available to experts for a long time. What changed is that search engines speak English now.

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  • [–] 6 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    intelligence /ĭn-tĕl′ə-jəns/
    noun

    The ability to acquire, understand, and use knowledge.

    Much like you, AI is incapable of understanding anything, they just regurgitate what they hear.

    AI aren't intelligent, they're stochastic parrots that can process words as math to generate a facsimile of intelligence to make the ignorant think it's smart.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 5 months ago (9 children)

    Consciousness is separate from intelligence and I never brought it up.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago (8 children)

    So would you describe "statistically likely" to be the same as "intelligent"?

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 5 months ago (7 children)

    Statistically likely to...what? I don't understand what you're trying to say.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago (6 children)

    A large language model is giving you the statistically most likely words to your prompt, weighted by prettymuch everything written online. You would describe that as "intelligent"?

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 5 months ago (5 children)

    Intelligence is a description of capability, not the means by which the capability is achieved. So if the output looks intelligent then the process is intelligent regardless of how it works. The difference between natural and artificial intelligence is how the intelligence is achieved - what you're describing doesn't match any intelligence found in nature so if it produces intelligent output then it's artificially intelligent.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago (4 children)

    So if the output looks intelligent then the process is intelligent regardless of how it works

    Most every other computer program made will also meet this definition. Hell, this definition is so loose, you can use it to describe evolution as an intelligent process.

    What if I push it one step further back the chain? In so far as these programs are recognizably intelligent, it is only because conscious people put a lot of time and work into making them. Into setting up the systems that statistically weighed the models. The model is intelligent, but it's not artificially so. It's just an expression of plain old human intelligence, obfuscated through sci-fi terminology.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 5 months ago (3 children)

    Normal computer programs only look intelligent in very narrow areas, like number crunching, which is why we don't tend to call them intelligent. Their general intelligence is next to zero. Even if we were delusional enough to think life came from non-life and developed intelligence by random chance and natural selection, you have the same thing there where you get much more non-intelligent output than intelligent output. Monkeys on typewriters could also look intelligent some of the time, but looking at the totality of output they wouldn't.

    It’s just an expression of plain old human intelligence

    All artificial things are expressions of human behaviors. That's kind of the definition of artificial.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago (2 children)

    I think what this conversation is dancing around is that we have a colloquial definition of "Artificial Intelligence", inherited from science fiction and broadly (albeit with much specific variation) understood as "conscious machine"...

    ...and then we have a set of computer programs that are - fundamentally - no different from any other program (one Turing machine can, in principle, run all the same algorithms as any other Turing machine). Yes, we can technically describe these programs with the words "artificial" and "intelligent", but doing so is kind of disingenuous, given the cultural association that predates any use of the term in comp sci fields.


    totally different conversation, but its also a fun one:

    Even if we were delusional enough to think life came from non-life and developed intelligence by random chance and natural selection

    yeah I won't discount the possibility that life has other origins. At the same time, you gotta deal with Occam's Razor: working with what we currently know about the history of the planet, life emerging from non-life requires fewer assumptions. It also cannot be discounted as a possibility.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 5 months ago (1 child)

    We don't have a mathematical definition for intelligence or artificial like we do for a Turing machine, but most useful concepts don't have precise definitions, like human, air, porn, drugs, medicine. I don't see how there is anything disingenuous about calling computer programs artificially intelligent because that same term describes sci-fi computer programs which display intelligence. A lot of robots in sci-fi aren't superintelligent and they usually have robotic voices and vocabulary choices and sometimes difficulty understanding words that aren't in the dictionary or answering slightly vague questions, things which LLMs have no trouble with.

    Saying the mount Rushmore carvings was formed by erosion is a simple explanation with few assumptions that is possible if you assume erosion happens sufficiently randomly, but it's an absurd explanation nonetheless. Occam's razor is just a rule of thumb to apply to competing explanations which are similarly reasonable and even then it's not telling you which is more likely to be true but which is the simplest model to work with.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago

    I don’t see how there is anything disingenuous about calling computer programs artificially intelligent because that same term describes sci-fi computer programs which display intelligence.

    In a vacuum, sure. But in the context where a small number of companies are circulating billions of dollars between each other and have a vested interest in overstating what their product is capable of? Very disingenuous. It's the big financial bubble of the 21st century. We can have a conversation where we ignore the cultural and historical context, but frankly its not an interesting conversation.

    I don't think the Rushmore example... works? You're trying to make an example where Occam Razor points to something we obviously know is wrong, but you're first assuming a lack of context. Erosion is not the simplest explanation given everything we already know. I know Occam’s Razor is a rule of thumb. It doesn't dismiss any other origin for life. But the same time, you cannot dismiss life emerging out of physics and chemistry just because you feel it is absurd.

    I mean, you can dismiss it. Follow you gut and stick to what you believe. Quite a lot of good scientists have made important discoveries doing just that! But more than a gut feeling is needed to actually convince anyone else.

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