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[–] 28 points 6 months ago* (4 children)

False positives are at least as dangerous as false negatives and AI solutions like this have massive problems with over diagnosing.

Absolutely 100% wrong.

In pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, a false positive means a follow-up scan. A false negative means death, the 5-year survival is near zero once it's caught late, but exceeds 80% when caught early.

In the study, the radiologists' lower false positive rate is achieved by missing 78% of cancers. That's not a safer trade-off, it's just a different way to fail. "Overdiagnosis" also requires a disease that might not have harmed the patient, PDA doesn't have a harmless form. Every missed case is a lost life while every false positive is an extra doctor's appointment.

This system detects twice as many cancers and was flagging them, on average, 675 days (nearly 2 years!) before clinical detection.

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  • [+] -21 points 6 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (4 children)
  • [–] 18 points 6 months ago

    If I'm wrong, then feel free to support your position with evidence or an argument showing that my statement was specious.

    I linked the, peer-reviewed, paper which contains the data that supports my statements on the topic.

    You've made two conclusory statements and immediately resorted to insulting comments when challenged.

    There is not a single aggressive pancreatic cancer where a false negative is more dangerous than a false positive.

    Percutaneous biopsy has a mortality rate of approximately 0.2% even relatively non-malignant pancreatic cancers (say Solid pseudopapillary neoplasm) have 10-year survival rates in adults of around 88% and that number is from cases which received surgical intervention and chemotherapy something that would not happen with a false negative.

    So even in the worst case, the false negative multiple times more deadly. A false positives' most likely outcome is pancreatitis from the biopsy procedure.

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