I think scale matters. A year is quite a lot longer than a week or two. It's easy to consider both the next Thursday you're going to encounter and the one after that as subjectively "soon". The same can not be said of a month at least nine months away.

I would agree that your ruleset works on a longer timescale, but not on a shorter one. There's too much ambiguity and crossover for it to work properly. Having exclusivity in definition allows for better communication, especially for something much more personal like something sooner rather than later.

You're right, after some further thought I forgot one rule that I use. Will edit to fix this.

To answer your question, the February that had recently passed would just be "February" until later in the year (likely when February 2025 would be closer or similar distance to the past one) it would shift to "last February" or "back in February". It would be "next February" until the end of the year, then "this February" once into the new year.