NonCredibleDiplomacy

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[+] Eheran@lemmy.world -8 points 7 months ago (9 children)

Makes sense, since otherwise Iran sells passage. So this is one is the few logical things to do in that situation.

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[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 16 points 7 months ago* (8 children)

Well, Iran can still just blow up any ship that doesn't pay the toll.

As they have been doing.

Just because "I declare BLOCKADE" doesn't mean that Iran can now somehow not do that.

So no, this is insane to do, because now you just have a double blockade, and nothing at all can get through.

The thing that would make sense to do at this point is just fucking leave, and maybe uh, apologize, for doing a bunch of war crimes?

Itan stated in their earlier ceasefire proposal that they wanted to have the tolling thing be shared with Oman, have it voted on and ratfied in the UN as international law, and the main point of it was to recoup the costs of the damage that's been done to them via the tolls, instead of demanding outright reparations.

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[–] marcos@lemmy.world 0 points 7 months ago (5 children)

Well, they know that the UN won't ever accept it. That part is not honest.

The idea that it is to recover the loses is also not fully honest. If it was to recover the loses, the tool would have an expiration date.

Currently, the US destroyed the international law, so there's no reason for Iran to obey it alone. But pretending the toll satisfies it isn't honest.

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[–] TrippingBalls@lemmy.world 5 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (2 children)

How do you even begin to estimate the losses Iran incurred, cost of rebuilding and opportunity cost lost

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[–] real_squids@sopuli.xyz 2 points 7 months ago*

You can ask Ukraine. They'll tell Iran to go fuck themselves but there are outside agencies who specialize in that sort of thing too

edit: ofc they can estimate it themselves, too

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[–] HeyThisIsntTheYMCA@lemmy.world 1 point 7 months ago*

you hire very good econometrists who make very bad models because the best macroeconomic model (that doesn't venture into woo immeasurable bullshit) is only 60% accurate.

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[–] real_squids@sopuli.xyz 1 point 7 months ago (1 child)

the US destroyed the international law

Stolen valor. That shit has been destroyed so many times by many other actors

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[–] Estiar@sh.itjust.works 3 points 7 months ago

I think it could have been resurrected sometime between 2022 and now, but not at this point. It's been cremated

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[–] Eheran@lemmy.world -4 points 7 months ago (1 child)

That is the point, nothing should get through...? Instead of Iran having a monopoly via large payments.

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[–] sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com 7 points 7 months ago*

This will result in literally millions of people starving to death.

About a third of the world's supply fertilizer supply goes through the Strait.

Or well, it did.

So us in wealthier countries will get dramatically more food price inflation, (yes, dramatically more than what we've experienced in the last few years in the US), those in poorer countries will just starve to death.

That will destabilize the governments 9f those places, and cause more people to try and immigrate to parts of the world that do have food, which will cause even more tensions and bigotry between ethnic groups in multicultural societies.

... Extremely horrifically bad plan.