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Trump warns a 'whole civilization will die tonight' if a deal with Iran isn't reached (apnews.com)
submitted 7 months ago by to c/world@lemmy.world
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[–] 72 points 7 months ago (35 children)

This is the first time I think someone's gonna drop a nuke and that it can actually happen.

If the pedohitler really drops a nuke, it's gonna be over for Iran but mostly for the US. Dropping a nuke is basically admitting they have lost not just the war but their own society.

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  • [–] 37 points 7 months ago (6 children)

    Immediate global pariah. All agreements with a rogue nuclear state would immediately be voided. All trade ceases, all loans rescinded. Every US base would be evacuated and be blown up from afar by their host countries. The word American would become a synonym for murderer.

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  • [–] 24 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    European leadership will still be kissing "Daddy" Trumps little asshole even after nuking Iran. They haven't shown any sign of resistance up until now, what is a few extra dead Iranians going to change for western leaders?

    Its fucking disgusting, but the greatest risk to world peace seems to be western civilization.

    Fuck USA Fuck Israel Fuck war

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago*

    It's one thing to be a unreliable, distasteful ally who at least has common enemies.

    It's another thing to be a bigger genocider than Stalin and Hitler combined and knowingly rolling the dice on the end of the world.

    Europe knows the US sucks, but it's better than the alternatives at the moment. Letting a nuke slide is not an acceptable alternative for any country in the world. The US would immediately be a common enemy of every country in the world, and even the most cynical, bootlicking neoliberal cannot go against that.

    Or maybe the political class is just all lizard people and waiting for the moment to Kill The Poor.

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (1 child)

    Also the Russians would rightly be terrified they'd be next and could launch a pre emptive nuclear strike to decapitate the US and israel.

    Why the downvotes?

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  • [–] 17 points 7 months ago (26 children)

    If a nuke is dropped it's over for the world. Mutually assured destruction guarantees this.

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  • [–] 29 points 7 months ago (10 children)

    No, the rest of the world isn't just going to instantly nuke the US. If Iran gets nuked it won't be via an ICBM but more likely a traditional aircraft or possibly ship launched nuke. Until it goes off it won't look too much different from any of the other weapons being dropped on Iran. What it would do though is instantly turn the US into even more of a pariah than it already is. You'd likely see pretty much instant sanctions across the board which would tank the US economy, and might finally manage to get Trump impeached and convicted. Might even be able to convince the spineless bastards in Washington to hand Trump over to the ICC in exchange for lifting some of the sanctions.

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  • [+] 4 points 7 months ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (2 children)
    [deleted]
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  • [–] 9 points 7 months ago

    How can they sanction us when global finance still overwhelmingly depends on the dollar though?

    The world has been gradually de-dollarizing for over a decade now. USD held as global currency reserves has fallen from 70% to 40%. BRICS nations are implementing their own payment systems based on the renminbi, and the eurozone obviously can operate independently already.

    A lot of global value is tied up in US investment systems, sure. But a nuke drop would make that value not very valuable anymore. It would suck and the world would be stuck in another great depression, but the rest of the world has plenty of functional financial systems to keep moving on.

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  • [–] -2 points 7 months ago* (6 children)

    Theres every reason to think the Russians would consider a nuclear trigger-happy US an existential threat to them and launch a pre emptive attack. After all, the US (through Ukraine) launched attacks on Russia's strategic bombers and Putins nuclear bunker which would have been considered suicidal during the Cold War

    If a nuclear weapon is used all bets are off.

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago (5 children)

    Preemptive attacks don't work when they will nuke you back. This is the principle behind Mutually Assured Destruction.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago (4 children)

    MAD assumes the other side is rational. Trump is a lunatic.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago (3 children)

    First you said Russia, not the US, would do a preemptive nuclear attack. So this isn't about Trump, it's about Putin.

    Second, Russia wouldn't do it because of MAD. That's the whole concept of MAD.

    You're making no sense, so I think I'm gonna peace out.

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  • [–] 0 points 7 months ago* (2 children)

    Yes Russia could launch a preemptive nuclear attack because Trump is a lunatic who kills and kidnaps leaders of other countries and sends drones (via Ukraine) to bomb Russian strategic sites

    So Russia might think "kill them before they kill us" should Trump or Netanyahu use nukes against Iran.

    MAD doesn't work if one of the players is literally mad.

    Got it now?

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (1 child)

    Play this out:

    1. Russia nukes the US.

    2. In response, the US nukes Russia. Not just a little bit either, they nuke all population sites.

    No "decapitation" strike is possible from either side. Any attack by either side is met by the other striking back, and again not just a little bit - all population sites. That is what mutually assured destruction is.

    And maybe more if you need:

    1. if you think the US nukes Russia, then:

    2. surprise, Russia nukes the US back.

    Once again, no decapitation strike is possible from either side. A strike by the US is met by Russia striking back. That is what mutually assured destruction is.

    MAD literally works if either side starts nuking the other, regardless of the reason why. This is the whole basis of MAD.

    Ok I'm really gonna peace out. You really need to do some reading.

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

    I've read Schelling's Strategy of Conflict so I have done some reading on this. Once again you are assuming players are always rational which is a simplistic assumption. The game doesn't work if one side doesn't care about iterative rounds, chooses to signal erratic behaviour or doesn't understand the implications of their actions.

    A good example is Nixon's "madman theory" during the Vietnam conflict.

    Trump is erratic and can't be assumed to act rationally , so his use of a nuclear weapon would massively increase the chance that Russia would use one in response on the basis that the US is willing to kill the leaders of other countries in a sneak attack.

    MAD is not set in stone and can break down in certain circumstances.

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  • [–] 11 points 7 months ago (5 children)

    I don't think Iran has nukes, and every other country will probably be very careful about dropping a nuke in the US. Maybe some rogue country would drop one to israel but I'm not sure this would happen becaues of MAD.

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  • [–] 5 points 7 months ago (4 children)

    Russia is allied with Iran.

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  • [–] 9 points 7 months ago

    You misunderstand MAD. That applies between nuclear states. No one will be rushing to launch retaliatory nukes on Iran's behalf.

    Still fucked, and who knows maybe they have something capable of hitting Israel

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  • [–] 8 points 7 months ago (5 children)

    Who would fire back? Iran doesn’t have nukes.

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  • [–] 16 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    Iran can however launch everything they have at the gulf states and israel, destroying all of their desalination plants and oil production and basically wiping them off the map and turbofucking the global economy into something worse than the great depression. They've been holding back so far, but if they get nuked they may as well just pull the trigger.

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  • [–] 4 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    I don't know, maybe Russia, China and if there is mass global destabilization India, Pakistan, and North Korea could get trigger happy.

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