Not sure if the recertified market would be as affected but prices are definitely going up.
I bought 10tb refurbished drives for $65 ea last year, this year, same ones cost me $140 ea.
These are drives from 2017-2018 mind you. I know drives should start failing soon at some point, but that is why I have raid and weekly replication to a second server.
Let's just hope something new comes around that will make current year drives cheaper in the near future.