The U.S. balkanizing is what I expect to occur sometime in the next few decades. Divisions have just grown so strongly that there already are functionally a few different Americas, even if we're still bound together for now.
In terms of the current shutdown though, I suspect it will last through Thanksgiving, and we will see the mother of all air traffic catastrophes. Multiple high profile crashes, tons of airports fully shutdown, lots of airspace shutdown, all amidst one of the busiest travel times of the year. Afterwards, there will be enough pressure to get the Reps to agree to a clean continuing resolution, which will fund the govt through January, and then we'll do the whole song and dance again.