I don't think there is wishful thinking here; instead there is a chilling message that after Putin expect chaos. We don't know when it will be - it could be years more - but fundamentally Russia is divided into vying armed factions, Putin has less control of them, and there is no clear successor and for some factions things are beginning to lean towards the question "are we better without him?" and "will be better off if we move sooner than our rivals rather than wait?"

But we in the west ironically should hope Putin survives as long as possible. Because when he dies, there will be a civil war between armed factions in the army, security services, mercenary armies and other groups. Groups that have a vested interest in some form of the current system continuing but who also cannot let their rivals win.

Way more than $60 billion. Way way more. US is an enormous piggy bank where over a trillion dollars can be moved around any given year to line the pockets of whoever. There’s a reason why fetterman is calling a billion dollars pocket change and why musk is looking beyond a trillion dollars with government contract profits.

I think far worse; when Putin dies there will be chaos. He has created a mafia state, and keeps different factions in line by using fear and playing people against each other. When he goes, there isn't a clear successor - there are just various rivals vying for power.

I think a Russian civil war is likely, in the form of essentially criminal factions within the state duking it out, rather than "the people" rising up. And scarily that means factions within the army, including regional power brokers with their own "private" armies like in Chechnya, the mercenary armies as well as the police / state security apparatus. Groups all armed to the teeth.

We saw a small preview with the Wagner Group rebellion in 2023. That petered out because Yevgeny Prigozhin was basically out of his depth, was tricked into peace with false promises, and then assassinated at the first opportunity. Other players aren't as naive, and Putin won't be there as a power broker once he's dead.

I agree Putin may die a normal death, but the Ukraine war was actually a major misstep and it's possible someone may move against him if it continues to drag on and damage the economy so much. All the players are constantly calculating are they better with Putin around or not; at the moment it's still with Putin around but that is not guaranteed. Russia is a literal power keg, and we should all be very worried what happens next.

I know for sure something is false once the Kremlin confirms it.

Since the source hasn't fallen out of a window it's quite likely a possible outdated truth or a fabricated story. Either way i can't imagine the end of Putin is as close as the article says it is. But here's to hoping.

They do all the time lol where have you been for 3 years?