🔮 (on average) Predictions may relate to your personal life or grand tectonic shifts in our constantly changing world. Assess your own prediction accuracy.

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[–] 10 points 1 year ago (6 children)

Getting better the more Marxist-Leninist theory I read. Understanding dialectical and historical materialism, as well as the mechanics of capitalism and imperialism, has allowed me to sharpen my analysis.

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  • [–] [S] 2 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    So your success rate with predictions is greater than 50% ?

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  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    Kinda? Predictions aren't a binary, often times I get more aspects correct but details wrong. The future isn't knowable, but reasonable and accurate predictions can be made.

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  • [–] [S] 2 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    Good point with predictions not being binary. It is hard to assess prediction accuracy, so I guess this entire question I asked here is useless?

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    That's a matter of perspective, if it opens up the conversation to tangential subjects, ie me saying Marxism-Leninism has helped, then it's still a useful conversation starter. Depends on what you want to get out of this post.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    I mean yeah in general, using a theoretical construct to enhance prediction accuracy is a good strategy I guess.

    I believe with better predictions we can have better lives in a uncertain world.

    What are your thoughts on prediction markets? Are they gambling?

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    100% accurate! Just buy my book, app, and newsletter subscription. Plus brain pills.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago

    On average, I find the less precise my predictions, the more accurate they become and the more precise my predictions, the less accurate they become.

    So rather than predict that I'm 54.3% accurate, I'll just say it's probably roughly half the time at a minimum.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    If it has to do with my future - I’ve been spot on way more than not. I can think of multiple times where I’ve been told by someone “no way that would ever happen you’re just catastrophizing” only for it to happen exactly that way shortly thereafter.

    About the world? I’m almost never right hahaha, I genuinely can’t remember the last time I was right about anything going on in the world at all.

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  • [+] 3 points 1 year ago (1 child)
  • [–] [S] 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

    I am terrible at predicting future events. 70% score I would say. Perhaps I have not all information to be successful predictor.

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  • [+] 2 points 1 year ago (2 children)
  • [–] [S] 2 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    both would be interesting. But I am more interested in self-assessment of prediction accuracy.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    It doesn't happen too often, but if my mind comes up with a prediction for the next word out of someone's mouth, it's correct about 75% of the time.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Very very bad.

    I thought Hillary would win the 2016 election.

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  • [–] [S] 2 points 1 year ago

    Predicting election results can be very hard, especially if it can be rigged and manipulated for the first time by 1000s of actors. Personally I did not even try to predict who would win, should I?

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