Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz briefly returned to pre-war levels by late September, then Iran escalated attacks and volumes fell back. The episode covers why fuel and shipping costs remain high even as crude flows recover.

  • Crude oil exports through Hormuz briefly hit pre-war levels by late September, then Iran's heaviest attacks of the war pulled them back.
  • Shipping a barrel from the Persian Gulf to Northeast Asia now costs $20 to $30, about 10 times the normal $2 to $3.
  • Refined products are still below half pre-war levels, and LNG (liquefied natural gas) shipments are also well below pre-war levels.
  • Diesel crack spreads (the gap between crude and diesel prices) are five to six times their historical norm, driven by the Iran war and Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries.

"the loss is over two billion barrels." (Rory Johnston)

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