I must applaud this analysis cause rarely in the wild do I find sickos that know ball this well
So bravo
And cause I am also a sicko I want to add a few more things to chew on
As you already alluded to, and I will add an additional allegory, Tucker is the Daniel Day Lewis of political pundits.
When he changes characters he is in a league of his own. And part of that is he has a genius level read on the pulse of politics. And ironically, cause it is typically something you more often find Marxists doing, not so much modern right-wingers, is that he is insanely good at identifying the contradictions in our politics, in our imperialism, and even in capitalism itself.
Like if someone is so inclined, if you read the opening chapter or so of his book, I think it was Ship of Fools, it basically just reads like semi accurate leftist critique of American capitalism translated into America B language. But he peppers in just enough ethnonationalism and causation misdirection to seed people in a more right wing Trumpian direction and away from a true capitalist and class critique.
And I suspect that is what he is doing here again thru this new persona that as you rightly note is targeting the political/voter contradictions on Israel and repackaging ethnonationalist right wing economic populism and astutely incorporating some of the DSA energy as well(see him praising Abdul El Sayed and note the shift in people under 40 embracing socialism and socialist policies, even on the right).
And I will add this elite/counter-elite push and pull is a pattern we see repeat again and again in right wing politics and media.
There is the Establishment and the elites that are backing them. Then there is typically some counterfroces to their right dialing up the rhetoric on various tension points between the party elite and the right wing masses, identifying those contradictions and misalignments so they can exploit them as the more authentic voice for "the people." Who themselves are usually backed by some counter elites seeking to gain more influence in the larger political space.
They embrace positions, posturing, and/or manufacture a movement that presents like it is challenging the Republican Party, eschewing unpopular aspects while fronting certain populist energies thru that anti establishment image. Gain enough support for it to create a crisis within the existing status quo, use that to leverage to gain more power and influence within the party/politics in exchange for sheep-dogging people back into the party.
Reagan Revolution, Moral Majority, Tea Party, Trumpism, etc. All followed a similar pattern.
And on the media side no one has done it better or more often then Tucker. He is a bellwether people should not ever ignore or underestimate.
And a cheat code for seeing who and where people are aligning themselves is not to just look at what they say, but what they do behind the scenes.
Peek thru the veil at Tucker and you will find someone maneuvering in between his post Fox News backer Omeed Malik and toward the JD Vance wing of oligarchs(not a fan of the source but it is the one I could find reporting on this recently)
My personal theory is Tucker, and this is based on his movements behind the scenes, is trying to position himself as a kingmaker voice in 28 for using his clout on this issues he is on the correct side of to then sheepdog people into Vance. Which he will use to demonstrate he is a goodboy to the Thiel wing of the oligarchy he is trying to ingratiate with, and he is smart enough to know Vance has no chance in 28(in 150 years no party with an incumbent president anywhere near this unpopular has won a non-incumbent presidential race and the Republican Party under current material conditions is in no position to break that trend).
And I would also go out on a limb and say I would not be shocked if Tucker wants to then position himself as a Trumpian like figure for 2032 or 2036.