There are an estimated 12,000 ballots left to count as of late Thursday evening. Most of those ballots are from Arapahoe County. Only 85 percent of the county's votes are reported. Arapahoe County supported Laubacher overwhelmingly (60.9 percent) to Boebert's 35.8 percent.

According to NBC News, Boebert must win 61.4 percent of the remaining vote to overtake Laubacher.

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[–] 4 points 1 day ago* (last edited 23 hours ago) (1 child)

Are you really suggesting that the only time an "actually credible decision desk" has made a bad call was over 25 years ago?

I'm saying the fact you're resorting to that example at all is pathetic. You're digging back over a quarter-century – when models were less refined – to a call on a razor-thin race that ended up correct sans the hypothetical recount and that led to a resignation.

Of the decision desks I listed, Decision Desk HQ is almost always the quickest to call races, and even they exceedingly rarely get it wrong. The only recent one that I know of is the NJ-11 primary. They also last year miscalled the Seattle mayor's race, but that's because they received wildly inaccurate data from Seattle themselves.

Genuinely the only noteworthy one I can think of from the AP within the last 15 years is in 2018 in a House election. And errors like that (as noted in the article) get decision desks to painstakingly and methodically improve their models. The actual estimate of retracted calls:

Retractions are rare. Scott estimated the AP had to pull back about two dozen of its 7,000 calls this election season [2018], though he said most were due to county vote tabulation errors.

Unlike AlterNet, decision desks have a reputation to uphold, the expertise to uphold it, and an accountability that forces them to adapt and improve their model. Some anonymous author on AlterNet has none of those.

I'm sure if I did some research I could find plenty of retractions between then and now.

"I'm sure if I actually tried to substantiate the stupid argument I'm making with actual, salient points, I could." Well I just "did some research", and it shows pretty clearly that out of tens of thousands of races, decision desks are trustworthy.

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  • [–] 0 points 20 hours ago

    The thing you are missing is the accuracy of decision desks has absolutely nothing to do with the argument of calling elections. Even if they were 100% accurate (they aren't, I just found 5 from past 10 years with a cursory Google search) the point still stands.

    An election being "called" means nothing more than a journalistic institution deciding that they think the outcome is certain enough to publish. That's it!

    That was my whole point from the start till now. Your pedantic obsession with the accuracy of decision desks has nothing to do with my claims. But go ahead and keep beating that straw man if it makes you feel better. I'll happily prove they get it wrong despite that being an entirely different argument.

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