▲ 185 ▼ 'How can prices fall when there's nothing left?' TeamGroup CEO reckons supply-demand memory equilibrium may not happen until late 2028 at the earliest (www.pcgamer.com) submitted 6 days ago by inclementimmigrant@lemmy.world to c/pcgaming@lemmy.ca 52 comments fedilink hide all child comments Like the cartel will allow the prices to fall even if there was more RAM available.
[–] Kolanaki@pawb.social 7 points 5 days ago (4 children) Just make more RAM. 🤷♂️ permalink fedilink source hideshow 4 child comments replies: [–] michaelalf@lemmy.world 15 points 5 days ago (2 children) RAM manufacturers (there aren't many) don't want to invest in scaling up production. They know the bubble will pop fairly soon. Also, price fixing. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] JasSmith@sh.itjust.works 11 points 5 days ago (1 child) There's an element of that, or at least there was an element of that. Right now supply chain analysis shows they're ramping up literally as fast as physically possible. It's so bad that even basic things like valves, piping, and ceramic components are back-ordered for months or years. A laser tool maker is quoted as waiting more than 40 months for parts now. This is putting supply strain on tens of thousands of components which we never imagined we would suddenly require in much larger quantities. I think the good news is that on the other side of this, we'll have unprecedented production capacity for RAM and storage. If AI continues to gobble up capacity, it'll mean abundant and cheap inference. If it doesn't, it'll mean abundant and cheap RAM and storage. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 1 child comment replies: [–] olafurp@lemmy.world 1 point 5 days ago Yeah, they probably were a bit conservative before but when you can fill a whole production line with back orders it's really a no brainer. permalink fedilink source parent [–] kunaltyagi@programming.dev 2 points 5 days ago It's not that simple from the manufacturers perspective. Setting up a new fab takes years. Usually 5 or more for a grounds up build. Less for an upgrade (1-2 years or so). Lots of in-progress fabs have been sped up and we will see more supply sooner, but not soon enough. Making less HBM and more DDR RAM doesn't make sense for $hareholders, so we are stuck with getting supply at a trickle such that the marginal cost for both is equal or it's a contract with a penalty larger than any profits permalink fedilink source parent
[–] michaelalf@lemmy.world 15 points 5 days ago (2 children) RAM manufacturers (there aren't many) don't want to invest in scaling up production. They know the bubble will pop fairly soon. Also, price fixing. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] JasSmith@sh.itjust.works 11 points 5 days ago (1 child) There's an element of that, or at least there was an element of that. Right now supply chain analysis shows they're ramping up literally as fast as physically possible. It's so bad that even basic things like valves, piping, and ceramic components are back-ordered for months or years. A laser tool maker is quoted as waiting more than 40 months for parts now. This is putting supply strain on tens of thousands of components which we never imagined we would suddenly require in much larger quantities. I think the good news is that on the other side of this, we'll have unprecedented production capacity for RAM and storage. If AI continues to gobble up capacity, it'll mean abundant and cheap inference. If it doesn't, it'll mean abundant and cheap RAM and storage. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 1 child comment replies: [–] olafurp@lemmy.world 1 point 5 days ago Yeah, they probably were a bit conservative before but when you can fill a whole production line with back orders it's really a no brainer. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] JasSmith@sh.itjust.works 11 points 5 days ago (1 child) There's an element of that, or at least there was an element of that. Right now supply chain analysis shows they're ramping up literally as fast as physically possible. It's so bad that even basic things like valves, piping, and ceramic components are back-ordered for months or years. A laser tool maker is quoted as waiting more than 40 months for parts now. This is putting supply strain on tens of thousands of components which we never imagined we would suddenly require in much larger quantities. I think the good news is that on the other side of this, we'll have unprecedented production capacity for RAM and storage. If AI continues to gobble up capacity, it'll mean abundant and cheap inference. If it doesn't, it'll mean abundant and cheap RAM and storage. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 1 child comment replies: [–] olafurp@lemmy.world 1 point 5 days ago Yeah, they probably were a bit conservative before but when you can fill a whole production line with back orders it's really a no brainer. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] olafurp@lemmy.world 1 point 5 days ago Yeah, they probably were a bit conservative before but when you can fill a whole production line with back orders it's really a no brainer. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] kunaltyagi@programming.dev 2 points 5 days ago It's not that simple from the manufacturers perspective. Setting up a new fab takes years. Usually 5 or more for a grounds up build. Less for an upgrade (1-2 years or so). Lots of in-progress fabs have been sped up and we will see more supply sooner, but not soon enough. Making less HBM and more DDR RAM doesn't make sense for $hareholders, so we are stuck with getting supply at a trickle such that the marginal cost for both is equal or it's a contract with a penalty larger than any profits permalink fedilink source parent