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[–] 49 points 3 days ago (75 children)

I was a programmer for 25 years. I always figured I could have made a contribution to AI research, but the opportunity never came up (I was too busy writing Skype clones for cable companies and ISPs that were never used by anyone). I regretted this for a long time, but not any more. I never imagined AI would be this fucking bad, "bad" in the sense of bad for humanity and just plain bad as a product.

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  • [–] 10 points 3 days ago (74 children)
  • [–] 9 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (6 children)

    FWIW I always felt my contribution would have been towards "real" AI rather than the current pseudo-AI stuff that is all the rage. In addition to being a programmer, I also have a background in evolutionary biology and neuroanatomy. The "neural networks" that are part of current AI were originally based on the understanding of how neurons function that existed in the 1970s, and they were (and are still) a poor implementation of that level of knowledge. IMHO true AI can be achieved by more accurate simulation of how real neurons and real neural networks function and how they have come about in the real world through hundreds of millions of years of evolution by natural selection.

    That being said, "real" AI is probably going to be even worse for humanity than this current stuff is, so at least I'm glad that blood won't be on my hands.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 days ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 child)

    I really don’t understand this perspective

    This is honestly a strange thing to say. The only examples we have on the planet today of what we consider true intelligence are living animals. Why wouldn't it at least be possible that the properties of the signaling units that comprise these existing, observed intelligences (i.e. neurons) are fundamental to the task of replicating these intelligences? It seems to me it's the "statistical methods" that have yet to prove they're capable of producing true intelligence.

    I will retreat to the fact that I said "true AI can be achieved by more accurate simulation of how real neurons and real neural networks function" and not "can only be achieved". Time will tell which approach works better.

    I don't know who Chollet is but I'll look him up. Thanks for the reference.

    Edit: the downvote was predictable. Nice job.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago (1 child)

    Honest question. Why would you want "true AI"?

    This is like saying "true mega bubonic-AIDS can be made if we do XYZ".

    Stop, stop making mega bubonic-AIDS

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  • Honest question. Why would you want “true AI”?

    I always viewed it as an engineering challenge, without really seeing or caring about the literally existential threat that it represents. At this point in my life, however, I would not want true AI, as I mentioned in my comment.

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  • [–] 9 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (12 children)

    so there is a field of ai. it's a real thing. we don't have it yet, but, like cold fusion, we're pretty sure its possible and the steps along the way are fascinating. even partial steps have wide reaching applications and philosophical implications. it is the absolute coolest shit, and gets exactly 0 funding these days.

    the thing all the data centers RAM water electricity and economy are backing right now is not ai. it's what happens when a magic trick and a ponzi scheme fuck on a pile of cocaine in a Pharaoh's tomb. I say that to the audience here, because there's really no point talking to someone who's still a partisan the other way.

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  • [–] 3 points 2 days ago (3 children)

    I have no idea about what warp speed warhammer style is, but the idea of traveling faster than light using warp speed is a fantasy that doesn't work even in theory, because you can't bend space faster than light either, because gravity too can't travel faster than light. So the idea of traveling faster than light because you are moving within a warped field can never work, because you can't move the warp field faster than light anyway.

    Never really got into the warhammer universe, I know it's HUGE, maybe some day I'll get around to it.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 days ago

    mathematically.

    You can describe a perfect circle very very easily mathematically, a circle with infinitely fine grained curvature. But such a circle cannot exist in reality, because quantum space prohibit it.

    I don't give a shit about mathematical descriptions of things that aren't real, math is insanely efficient at describing reality, but it would be equally efficient at describing ANY reality.

    Also there are no ways that math within the confines of the standard model can describe faster than light travel. Because in reality it's not just light, it is causality of everything that has a maximum speed of light. The idea of for instance tachyons moving backwards in time is only a hypothesis, not a scientific theory. There is nothing that shows that tachyons should exist. But many things that shows us they don't. Breaking down causality for one, and the same is the case with faster than light travel, it breaks causality, and makes the universe a Picasso universe without rules. And clearly we do not live in a Picasso universe, because there are indeed rules we can rely on for science to work.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 days ago (3 children)

    Oh look its the physics knower. What do you mean cold fusion isn't possible? Did you come up with the theory of everything and fail to mention it to the rest of us? We DONT KNOW what is possible. Science is not even 5% of the way towards figuring out the entire universe. Such a definite answer is in no way verifiable. You could say it's not possible for us to do it right now. That's true. But saying it's entirely not possible is about as backed by evidence as your typical religious claim.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

    Cold fusion is not an acknowledged physical theory, it's not even an acknowledged hypothesis. In fact all physical theory talks against it.
    IDK why I'm downvoted and you are upvoted? Cold fusion is a hoax and has never happened.
    It's a phenomenon only debated seriously among the ignorant.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 days ago

    We have an approximation

    We have a fucking great deal more than an approximation. Newtonian physics were proven incorrect a century ago, but it's still 100% correct for everything going on on our planet.
    Even a lander on Mars can be calculated correctly with Newtonian physics. It's not until the scale gets much larger that we need relativity.

    we have no actual understanding of how things work at a fundamental level

    That's moving the goal post. We have an extremely good understanding of how things work down to the quantum level, and that's pretty fundamental, or maybe you don't actually understand what quantum level means?
    We can't measure below that because physics won't allow us. But it can also be said to be irrelevant, because no theory about it can be tested. It can be said to not actually be part of our universe. In much the same way the inside of a black hole is out of reach.
    There are no groundbreaking things to be found there that are relevant to life on earth. If there were we would have hints about it, because they would permeate into our reality.

    Hence there is no way to rule out anything definitively.

    Technically true, but irrelevant regarding reality. It's the kind of thing religious nuts love to say, because you can't prove a negative.
    There definitely is no god, and we can conclude that because there are no signs of a god, and if a god is crucial to our universe, we should see signs of it.
    There are so many philosophical rules that confirm this, that it's a joke these questions are even debated.
    The claim of cold fusion was a measurement error, there is no valid hypothesis and definitely not scientific theory that allows for cold fusion to exist.
    And we know A LOT about atoms, enough to know how to make atom bombs for almost a century, and yet you use an argument from ignorance?!?!?!

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  • [–] 8 points 2 days ago (50 children)

    Please stop using this argument. Unless you also brought it up every single time the term was used in videogames etc

    It's a bad argument that relies on pure language semantics that helps no one and undermines any good argument against it because it weakens your stance

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  • [–] 6 points 2 days ago (8 children)

    LLMs are none of that. They have no determinism, no concept of context and their “reaction” are pure statistics.

    yes, absolutely. and? Still makes them AI. Just not AGI (what the tech bros think they sell).

    Video game NPC “AI” is actual AI, based on deterministic rules, combining contextual(!) inputs to determine reactions.

    yes, and? You described an algorithm. If used in the context of game AI, it falls into the category of AI. The same way an LLM falls also the broad definition of AI. It's just not AGI

    This is exactly the stupid sematic discussion I mentioned above. You are fighting the wrong fight. Start focusing on calling their bullshit for not being AGI. That's something you can actually attack. Calling it not AI is just factually a categorical error. And weakins your argument

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  • [–] 2 points 1 day ago (3 children)

    Could you inform me of what is really going on here?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

    Snake oil and wish fullfilment with a heavy dose of personal information data gathering/privacy invasion and addiction. That is whats going on here.

    What people are actually using are probability engines. Statisical guessing machines. Nothing more. Every word and every letter is just a prediction based on the probability the next one is going to occur and fit. There is no desireable outcome that it cares about.

    There is no understanding or consciousness. No decision making based on anything else, no feeling, no desire, nothing.

    The term, in mathmatics and computer science is technically correct, as the field started around the late 1940's. But this term is taken to mean far more than this and marketed as such. Hence why Trump tried to rebrand yet again with Super Intelligence, just more marketing.

    These are money making schemes conflated with desire for power and a gold rush where no company wants to be late to the party. It's an investment loop; a sleight of hand to move money.

    Look at all the bullshit they build into the chatbots alone to try and humanize it: memories of you, telling you that you are very smart, agreeing by design, particularly to the point of making stuff up. The sycophany is used to drive engagement, even when the answer is wrong.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 day ago* (1 child)

    You seem reasonable and even-tempered, so I'd like to give you a considered response so I can hear your thoughts. But first I wanna ask:

    Do you object to the technology as a whole, or only to the use of the moniker AI to described LLMs?

    What is your definition of intelligence?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago

    I don't think one can object to any technology iteself, it is the implementation and details where things get problematic.

    So I have objections to both the implementation of LLMs and the marketing spin of making claims that AI (as a lay person thinks about it) exists by calling it such.

    I would love to have the star trek computer; impassionate answers to question asked by natural language. That part is kind of great.

    But not at the expense of the environment, job insecurity, loss cognitive abilities, electricity consumption, harvesting everyones data for private gain.

    We just aren't ready to handle those challenges yet.

    AI (as sold to us) is currently under the assumption that eventually, with enough resources thrown at the problem, become stable and useful. But there is no guarantee that will be true, and they are still missing the models of how reasoning should work.

    What is your definition of intelligence?

    Just remember, its irrelavant to this discussion, because the point I am making is that what we have today is not about intelligence in the first place, its about marketing, engagement, and making money.

    But in terms of what AI we have today? Intelligence has a foundation based on knowledge, where a lot of social cues, second guesses, self regulation, intuition, and other applied behaviours. LLM's start down a track and continue it to a conclusion. They may review their writing, add more inputs, but they again just go down the same probabalistic course.

    Intelligence is knowing your limits, having tacit knowledge (judgement based on experience), generate novel concepts (AI as we have it today is likely to collapse knowledge, not contribute to it), ability to apply rationale from other fields and sources while creating conclusions, and sensory input that is not just wieghted models.

    What is your definition?

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  • [–] 1 point 2 days ago (2 children)
    1. No one talked about AGI, and of course video game NPCs do not have that.
    2. LLMs are - technically speaking - the shittiest subset of the broad field of AI research. However, since they have zero determinism, they are the absolute opposite of "intelligent". They are artificial morons, if anything. And I object to the overuse of "AI" because words are important, and most humans are incredibly gullible and when everyone and their news station calls something "AI", they will assume it is intelligent and will rely on its outputs. This will kill people.

    Therefore: No, LLMs are not AI. They are statistical garbage generators with a high word prediction accuracy that is enough to fool humans into falsely believing they have understanding of context.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago

    They are statistical garbage generators with a high word prediction accuracy that is enough to fool humans into falsely believing they have understanding of context.

    That very precisely describes a lot of people I know.

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  • [–] 16 points 2 days ago (9 children)

    I do bring it up every case and even if I didn't this case it's an important distinction. Artificial intelligence is a marketing term used to conjure images of Jarvis and what not in people heads.

    Video games companies never claimed to have near sentiment AGI baked into their games that would replace all human workers or blow up the world.

    The term artificial intelligence is used to anthropomorphize LLMs as weird as that seems.

    It is an important distinction. These are large language models, not reasoning models, not AGI, not artificial life not artificial intelligence.

    I know that term as been used by the machine learning community in the past to mean things like decision trees and general models, and it didn't really matter much then but it matters A LOT now.

    Words have meanings. This isn't arguing semantics, it's using words as they are intended so we can communicate effectively about something in the world. To argue otherwise is naive, dishonest, and quite honestly just annoying.

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  • [–] 7 points 2 days ago (8 children)

    Hi I'm new to this debate and I agree with you that language matters and all that stuff you said at the end. That being said, I'm firmly in the camp of "LLMs are bad, but a 'true' AI would be even worse for us". I could type up several paragraphs diving into the several reasons why I think that way, but to save time (and to get back to my job) I'm just going to steal this Frank Herbert quote:

    Once men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them

    Do I think AI, in a vacuum, is always bad and will be no matter who or what makes it? No, not necessarily. But whatever we build will be inherently, and intrinsically tied to the micro- and macro-systems of our society, which are all DEEPLY fucked. Consequently, any AI we bring in would also, even if not initially, end up as being equally, deeply, fucked and end up being far, FAR more detrimental than positive

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  • [–] 4 points 2 days ago (6 children)

    Yeah true AI would be quite insane. Especially if it was behind human capabilities.

    There's just no way to ensure it's aligned towards good. We can't even define that ourselves. Who knows the suffering we could unleash on ourselves.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago* (5 children)

    What does true AI even mean? What do any of the things you guys say even mean? What?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago (4 children)

    Not a LLM. LLMs aren't intelligent they are pretty much just pattern matching. No world model or real reasoning capabilities

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  • [–] 2 points 1 day ago (3 children)

    You want to build a machine with real reasoning capabilities? What does that even mean? How is that supposed to work?

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  • [–] 1 point 23 hours ago (2 children)

    Well barring any weird things like a soul, the human brain is a physical object in the world. So any and all of its abilities should be replicatable. Perhaps not with the computer architecture we have but possibly some other way.

    So using the brain as inspiration basically. Seeing how it reasons and using what is learned there to build a synthetic system.

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  • [–] 2 points 20 hours ago (1 child)

    So you want to build a processor with a learning function, isn't that like a neural network with reinforced learning?

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  • [–] 1 point 19 hours ago

    Kinda but not really, humans brains do a hell of a lot more then any machine learning system around today.

    For one human brains provide their own training data. They don't clean it, they don't have a "right" answer to verify off of. But they still learn. How?

    There's lots of questions, but despite the name current neural networks are really naive approximations of what the human brain is doing. A fancy party trick in comparison.

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  • we can argue what actual ai would be, as long as we agree that it remains very firmly in the realm of science fucking fiction, just this side of inertial dampener fields and FTL travel.

    I do agree that any ai made by this society as it exists would be apocalyptic. all its stories about 'evil ai' are just metaphors for itself. we have already given up our thinking to computers (which don't yet think) and corporations and kings and markets. we fucking love giving up our thinking. it's like the whole appeal of fascism for most fascists.

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  • [–] 6 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (17 children)

    no. no because in video games it was understood that the "ai: very hard" was not actually ai, it was computer player. it did actually use some very early research in the field, but it was not ai and even at age ten I knew that. ai would not have so many dumb pathing problems. nobody was trying to tell me the AI from unreal:tournament or starcraft: brood war had feelings or was going to conquer the world, so clarification was not required.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 days ago (1 child)

    You misunderstand AI. Limited algorithms are still AI. So yes, video game algorithms are AI, LLMs are not, because they are statistical garbage generators.

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  • [–] 3 points 2 days ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

    quibbling over definitions but sure, it's kind of technically but the media push over thus shit gas garbled the language so communication between experts casual stuff knowers and gormless fuckwits has three mostly non overlapping sets of meanings for a bunch of words

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  • [–] 7 points 2 days ago (14 children)

    but it was not ai

    It's as much AI as when they made the chess computer that beat Kasparov, it's just not a very sophisticated AI.

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  • [–] 6 points 2 days ago (4 children)

    If we fix the name, it will not change what it does, and it probably won't fix how people use and feel about it. "Really Good Guessing Machine" is less marketable than "Artificial Intelligence", and much closer to the truth, but CEOs would be willing to take credit for laying off 20% of their workforce because they have RGGM now.

    Maybe "Predictive Token Gamble", to convey that all it does is predict tokens, and each output, each use case, and the entire industry as a whole is a gamble... "PTG reduced our human capital expenditure by 20%" still goes a long way, though.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 days ago (2 children)

    I think it would change how people use it. the people ordering it used are mostly very stupid. the current push, insurability of anything that uses it, and flood of endless vc cash, is based on the bullshit fairy tale.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 days ago (1 child)

    the people ordering it used are mostly very stupid

    We met with my mom's tax preparer a couple of months ago. He wasn't able to get anybody's taxes done on time because his super-expensive tax prep software crashed and burned on him. I told him it was possible (if not probable) that the software had become vibe-coded and his problem was AI. He surprised me by going into raptures of joy over how great AI was. He then told me that he had invested tens of thousands of dollars in some dude who was developing a "reactionless space drive", and that this guy had solved all the problems he was having with it by using ChatGPT. I asked him if the dude had a working prototype and he said no, but it was sure to work now that ChatGPT had fixed it.

    I considered explaining to him how LLMs work and what "confidently wrong" meant, but I thought better of it. Now I have to find a new tax preparer for next year.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 days ago (5 children)

    It doesn't have to be cutting edge or even progress to be AI, how did you get that idea? Obviously Anthropic and OpenAI have cutting edge AI, they are considered the global leaders, even if they go bankrupt in a few months.

    I think you are confusing AI with AGI or strong AI.
    There is not 1 single way to make an AI, and there are HUGE differences in how good they are, but very very definitely we have had AI since the 80's. Back then it just wasn't really usable, that began to a very small degree in the 90's, with for instance expert systems.

    Maybe read this to become better informed:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_artificial_intelligence

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  • [–] 5 points 2 days ago (3 children)

    No we don't, no such definition exist, you clearly don't know what AI even means. You probably also don't know what intelligence means. But that's OK many people don't.
    You clearly didn't bother educating yourself, either with the link I sent, or looking it up for yourself.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence

    Artificial intelligence (AI) is the capability of computational systems to perform tasks typically associated with human intelligence, such as learning, reasoning, problem-solving, perception, and decision-making.

    But you probably don't understand it, and conflate it with strong AI:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence

    Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a hypothetical type of artificial intelligence that matches or surpasses human capabilities

    There's a huge difference between the 2, having some abilities associated with human intelligence, and matching or surpassing are 2 very different things.
    Also notice that the Strong AI remains hypothetical, while AI does not because we already have an abundance of that.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago (2 children)

    I'm talking about how the term has historically been used, not dictionaries. I'm not going to argue about what's in the dictionary.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago (1 child)

    There is no historic term that is as you describe, except maybe if you go back to ancient Greek philosophy. But even within philosophy the words are used as I described.

    You are making shit up, because you claimed that's how "we" use it. In current tense.
    I hope you learned something, because your claim was way way off any definition.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

    This is almost exactly the opposite of how LLMs work.

    With the exact state of training data, and the exact prompt history, you'll get the same output. Problem is that you only get this scenario a single time. And as much as a spelling error, or simply repeating the same prompt twice, will not yield deterministic output.

    So no, LLM garbage is not deterministic. Otherwise it would be possible to predict output before the matrix processes the input.

    They have no determinism, no concept of context and their “reaction” are pure statistics.

    This almost perfectly describes human behavior.

    That's nonsense. Most mammals have a high understanding of context, and humans are very much able to produce deterministic answers to a given problem.

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