Zero. The US literally does not have the military capability to successfully invade Brazil. Brazil is no Superpower, but it is perfectly capable of defending itself, and it would turn into a total quagmire for the US. With its stockpiles depleted from the Iran war already it would be extremely ill advised for them to attack Brazil. Brazil has 375,000 Active Duty personnel, and spent $23.9 billion on its military in 2025.

They also have Gripen fighters. The Gripen is perhaps the best fighter in the world for the type of war this would be. It outflies an F-35, can land and take off from basically anything, is low maintenence compared to most modern fighters, and it's not an exaggeration to say the F-35 would get its ass handed to it. Iran has shown it's stealth is not good enough, and a Gripen is so much faster than an F-35 that once it sees the thing the F-35 is basically fucked.

As for a Navy they're majorly focused on coastal, and river capabilities. Which when defending a country like Brazil is great.

That's not even taking into account the diplomatic fallout globally. Brazil is not Venezuela. If the United States was to invade Brazil it would be the most significant geopolitical event since the end of WW2. Brazil is the 10th largest economy on the planet. China, Russia, the EU. All of them would feel the impact. And they'd all be furious.

Then there's Mexico. If the US Invades Brazil Mexico knows it is on the list too. So it would not just sit idle. It would likely launch an economic warfare campaign against the US. And it's the US's biggest trading partner so that would be devestating. This would hurt Mexico too, but it would be existential for them at that point.

If you think Vietnam was bad invading Brazil would be that x20.

No coincidence he went through Argentina, now run by Trump's buddy, Temu Wolverine.