Due to Fetterman, the Democrats need 52 seats in the Senate for security.

In addition to the 34 Democrat-held seats not up for re-election, 13 (counting the somewhat less certain North Carolina and New Hampshire) will likely go Democrat, requiring five of the following states to elect Democrats:

• Alaska
• Iowa
• Kansas
• Maine
• Michigan
• Ohio
• Texas

Assuming Kansas goes Republican, the Democrats need 5/6 of the remaining ones, with Maine and Iowa seemingly being the most competitive.