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[–] RichardDegenne@lemmy.zip 40 points 4 months ago (4 children)

Please, for the love of God, do not conflate prediction markets with polls.

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[–] NateNate60@lemmy.world [S] 31 points 4 months ago

Ironically, you've confused a conversation about odds with one about polls.

It's not about polls. We're talking about betting odds here. This is a gambling conversation. They said that Count Binface winning is paid 4:1, meaning an implied probability of 20%. I asked who is paying that, because it seems like that's far too low of a payout, giving Count Binface too high of an implied chance of winning.

If a candidate is being beat 4:1 in the polls, their betting odds would probably be 100:1 or higher.

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[–] AccoSpoot1@lemmy.world 9 points 4 months ago (1 child)

The majority of the general elections I have lived through (it's been a few) have been called more accurately by the bookies than the polls.

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