That's basically correct, yes. I don't see the fediverse platform(s) as being "special" compared to others. Sure, there's political and social momentum that keeps people here, especially due to anticorporate causes. People are here because they got ticked about the Reddit API changes, the ads, and the monetization (Reddit Gold, etc).

If any of those things change, people will see that they're not getting the value they were looking for, and will go back.