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'Exactly how the dot-com bubble burst': A market research firm says keep an eye on this AI warning sign (www.businessinsider.com)
submitted 4 months ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
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[–] 28 points 4 months ago (25 children)

That will result in massive order cancellations at NVDA, MU, AVGO, SNDK, etc., because no one needs the chips, networking, memory, or processor power," he added.

Well that is just false as there is pent up demand in the consumer markets that should be more than enough to make chip makers good money but I guess they don’t consider us regular folks real customers anymore

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  • [–] 25 points 4 months ago (9 children)

    But graphics cards, CPUs, RAM, and other components needed in data centers are a far cry from the same components used in home and office desktops and laptops. It’s like trying to sell parts used in F1 race cars on the consumer car market. Technically, there will be buyers, but the vast majority of these parts will remain unsold because demand for such specialized components is negligible in the general consumer market.

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  • [–] 18 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (3 children)

    I'm not sure if it's fully a bubble, or if the bubble is partly being used as a smoke screen to hide the upfront cost of redesigning computing infrastructure.

    A lot of the time, I think AI is just the branding layer. The real goal is top-to-bottom SaaS.

    Like, they're letting these AI companies hold the bag for building datacenters which will then get scooped by various companies like microsoft and google to offer virtualized home computing through a client.

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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago

    There might.be a little of that going around as well, but the datacenters haven't actually been built even close to the scale claimed, and the racks in there are kinda useless at serving SaaS webpage stuff, too many GPUs to make it make sense financially.

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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago

    The capacity will be freed.
    I am sure nvidia can repurpose the dies for consumer focused stuff and call them whatever or put them into business/workstation SKUs instead of enterprise/DC applications.
    Same for other products they sell.
    They arent as hyper specialized as an F1 (except maybe for those extreme 5U gpu compute nodes. They can hardly repurpose those lol

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  • [–] 8 points 4 months ago (2 children)

    It's not interchangeable though. I don't need an A100 at home.

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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    What I meant was changing their production capacity to consumers.

    My point was that chip manufacturers will have customers besides AI, not that the data center chips will have other customers

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  • [–] 4 points 4 months ago (3 children)

    I keep hearing this from people and it's not true. People want GPUs for playing games not running AI so the backlog of chips isn't useful to anyone.

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  • [–] 6 points 4 months ago (2 children)

    If nvidia had 0 AI chip buyers I will guarantee you they will come running back to consumers until the next fad.

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  • [–] 3 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    Yeah but it'll be months before they can get production up and running. They've foolishly completely abandoned the consumer market which means they don't have the factories set up to produce consumer chips.

    They also have nothing they can do with their own stock so it's not like there's going to be a glut of components.

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  • [–] 1 point 4 months ago* (6 children)

    No business does anymore. I maintain that's why all the cars are the same 4-6 colors these days. Black, white, grey, and silver aren't offensive to the corporations that buy fleets. Blue and red have to be there so they can do "patriotic" displays.

    Oh, and I'm really quite sorry to all of you that hadn't noticed that all the cars are the same colors these days. Once you see it, you can't unsee it.

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  • [–] 6 points 4 months ago* (2 children)

    It's been this way for decades, this is not a new phenomena and it is not a conspiracy - these things are driven by consumers.

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  • [–] 4 points 4 months ago* (1 child)

    I know it's been a thing for decades, but even in the '80s I could still walk on a lot and find yellow, green, orange and purple cars. These days it seems those are all special order.

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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago*

    The few sources I looked at point to paint having gone up in price significantly since the 80's, I also know that there are tighter regulations on paint (lead banned in 78 in the U.S. for example). I think dealerships started charging more for specific colors, and ultimately most people don't view their cars as symbols of freedom anymore. Who cares what the thing that brings me to my job looks like? I'd give it and more up to be able to live without working.

    I don't think it's about all businesses not giving a shit, times have just changed. If cars being black, white, silver, and grey is the price we pay to not have lead (and other things) in paint β€” I think it's a fair trade off.

    Edit: Some definitely do not give a shit. Nvidia seems to be a business that does not give a fuck who got them to where they are.

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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    They're all going with weird grey clay colours. Often in mat. It's really weird and I don't like it.

    I should be able to tell someone what colour my car is, I don't want to have to go, oh well it's a sort of dull concrete but slightly bluer.

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