yogthos comments on Iran destroys five US refueling aircraft.

Iran destroys five US refueling aircraft. (www.vietnam.vn)

submitted 7 months ago by yogthos@lemmy.ml to c/worldnews@lemmy.ml

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 25 points 7 months ago (15 children)

While that is absolutely the case, the problem they have here is that they don't control escalatory dominance. Typically, the US can dial things up or down as convenient, and if things get too spicy they can leave without any consequence. But here, Iran controls a choke point of the global economy, and leaving would have disastrous geopolitical consequences for the US. If they're forced to abandon all their vassals in the Gulf, then their image as a world power collapses overnight. How can Europe, occupied Korea, or Japan credibly think that the US will defend them at that point?

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[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 9 points 7 months ago (1 child)

How can Europe, occupied Korea, or Japan credibly think that the US will defend them at that point?

It's disturbing if they currently think US will defend them, when all defenses are moved to Israel today, and Trump shifts from "not our problem, we should leave" and "permanent global economy destruction", and delaying "permanent global destruction" while Israel pursues it anyway. Furthermore, pursuing the Israel genocide expansion plan makes US angry at low enthusiasm level of its colonies to join, and promises "bad future" for its allies.

If they’re forced to abandon all their vassals in the Gulf, then their image as a world power collapses overnight.

That is most likely outcome. Of the $200B funding request bill, as much as $50B is expected as earmark to allies reparations other than Israel. Unclear that congress will go along with any funds for them.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 10 points 7 months ago

Right, I really can't see how the US can win this war or even exit it with any sort of dignity. It's a massive geopolitical humiliation.

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[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 5 points 7 months ago (12 children)

If they're forced to abandon all their vassals in the Gulf, then their image as a world power collapses overnight.

As opposed to staying and their image being more like the loooooong, slow decomposition of an embalmed corpse? Like it's still going to happen, it's just taking too 🤬 long?

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 10 points 7 months ago (11 children)

There are no good choices left for the empire here.

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[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 8 points 7 months ago (10 children)

Painful as it may be for underdeveloped egos, GTFO NOW and start making reparations seems the best option, but I'm an internet rando, so there's that

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 12 points 7 months ago (3 children)

realistically that is the best option left, but the humiliation would be too much too swallow

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[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 4 points 7 months ago (2 children)

Well, even the best developed egos don't often like humble pie. And I don't think Trump's handlers really care much about results, as long as they're making money. I imagine they imagine money makes humble pie taste really good, until they're the pie filling.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 7 points 7 months ago (1 child)

It's always possible that these people will find ways to profit from the crisis, and they genuinely don't care even if the US geopolitical position collapses, and US economy crashes.

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[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 5 points 7 months ago

That's my current (very imperfect) best guess.

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[–] mirshafie@europe.pub 1 point 7 months ago (5 children)

I don't think a path for deescalation exists anymore. JD Vance could maybe have taken the reigns by referring to Trump's ill health, promised to send more competent negotiators who could meet Iran in good faith, and essentially dropped Israel to save America (or at least give it a few more good years).

But that's a very tall order, and he just went out to claim Iran is designing nuclear suicide vests, so I guess he watched Wag the Dog and took some inspiration.

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[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 1 point 7 months ago (4 children)

Why do you think that?

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[–] mirshafie@europe.pub 2 points 7 months ago (3 children)

Because all sides have so much to lose, so they'll pursue maximalist goals. The US retreating essentially means giving up the Gulf and by extension the Middle East, which is central to their doctrine of energy domination and a huge part of their leverage over Asia.

Iran on the other hand is fighting for its survival and needs to expel the US from the Gulf to ensure they can nevet attack them again.

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[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 1 point 7 months ago (2 children)

Ok, but why do you think Vance can send more negotiators who will actually negotiate in good faith?

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[–] mirshafie@europe.pub 2 points 7 months ago (1 child)

Vance, while clearly evil, is intelligent and flexible. I think that with some help he could find serious negotiators to send, and then he'd just need to make sure that there is clear communication.

To be clear, I don't think he will do that, because he's also a coward, but I think it is within his ability to do so.

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[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 1 point 7 months ago

I mean it's within everyone's ability, outside someone with psychopathy, to do what the rest of society deems morally acceptable, but when they have a track record of doing what most of us find morally reprehensible, there's really no reason to expect a sudden change, until they prove they're trying, I guess.

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