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SpaceX acquires xAI, plans to launch a massive satellite constellation to power it (arstechnica.com)
submitted 9 months ago by to c/spacex@sh.itjust.works
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[–] [S] 15 points 9 months ago (4 children)

This paragraph pretty much sums up where I'm at:

Musk’s plan for the merged companies is predicated on several assumptions, including that AI is not a bubble, but rather a technology that will be fully embraced in the future; that orbital data centers are cost-competitive compared to ground-based data centers; and that compute is the essential roadblock that must be solved for widespread adoption of AI by society.

I guess I just disagree with the CEO on all of those.

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  • [–] 7 points 9 months ago* (1 child)

    AI is not a bubble

    orbital data centers are cost-competitive compared to ground-based data

    Press 𝕏 to doubt. Or maybe stay off of 𝕏 entirely :)

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  • [–] 5 points 9 months ago* (1 child)

    that orbital data centers are cost-competitive compared to ground-based data centers

    Might as well work off of the assumptions that magical math-faeries will do all the computing in orbit, in exchange for candy canes. It's about as realistic.

    Solar irradiance is only about 25-30% more efficient in orbit, so with 40% efficiency (VERY optimistic, ISS does about 14%) a 1GW orbital datacenter would require a mere 0.4 x 10^8 / 1300 m2 worth of solar panels, or a square 550m to a side.

    If we use ISS-style solar arrays, which generate ~7.5w/kg, and double the efficiency, it would weigh 66000 tons, which translates to 3800 Falcon 9 launches. Just to power it. That includes zero frames, zero GPU's, and most importantly, zero cooling.

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  • [–] 1 point 9 months ago

    Personally the calculation seems dubious too (running a data center is fucking pricy, power is just a part of that ...), but one neat feature of space solar is that arrays can be bigger than on earth too. Just more... Space... Also less gravity allows for structure designs.

    Again not disagreeing just nerding on space solar.

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