I'd say it's 50-50 at this point, which is an improvement over a few months ago.

There are a LOT of cracks in the MAGA walls, even other MAGAs are starting to question what's going on, and they are almost certainly going to be brought down by their own virtuosic incompetence. The problem is the damage they'll do along the way, so we have to shorten their decline as much as possible. We can't afford a long drawn out fight.

It starts with the Midterm. election, which Trump has to stop. The Democrats are almost certainly going to win in a bloodbath of possibly historic proportions, and take the House Majority, possibly the Senate, and take control of investigative committees with subpoena and arrest powers. That would kick off a two year period of impeachments of all the Trump all stars - Noem, Hegseth, Homan, etc., maybe even Clarence Thomas. They wouldn't get convicted in the Senate, but they'd be forced to explain themselves in front of the American people. They'd also kill his legislative agenda, and substitute their own.

Trump can't have that happening, so he's going to do anything he can to rationalize suspending elections, and that is a BRIGHT RED LINE that can't be allowed under any circumstances.

How do you come to this conclusion? What I see is the administration consistently failing to execute on their domestic agenda and backing down. Their National Guard deployments were shut down by the courts. ICE is nowhere close to meeting their stated goals, and becoming less popular by the hour. They can't even fill the positions they have, nevermind growing it larger with the new budget. Even Jimmy Kimmel is still on the air.