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After years of resisting it, SpaceX now plans to go public. (arstechnica.com)
submitted 11 months ago by to c/spacex@sh.itjust.works
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This might be the beginning of the end for the whole Mars plan…

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[–] 19 points 11 months ago (6 children)

Good article from Eric.

If AI is something of a bubble, ten years from now, SpaceX may be sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of satellites in space for which there is limited use. Maybe shareholders would rather SpaceX make them multimillionaires than make humans multiplanetary.

Yeah, this seems like the biggest risk with this decision.

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  • [–] 8 points 11 months ago (5 children)

    They saw grifty startups getting money and realized that they could grift WAY more money than them. I'm surprised that they haven't announced something like "advanced custom grok silicon on every Starlink".

    If anyone can make it work, it's the company that has made, launched, and operated by far the most satellites of all time. I still don't see the point, though.

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  • [–] 1 point 11 months ago (4 children)

    I think they saw New Glenn land and are worried they're going to get leapfrogged. I bet starship is a long way from actual service. Hence trying to cash in on some bullshit hype train before the curtain gets pulled back.

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  • [–] 6 points 11 months ago

    I don't buy that. Based on payloads, New Glenn 7x2 is in the class with Falcon and Vulcan. That landing should make ULA panic about someone showing up to steal their #2 spot and NSSL and Amazon launches.

    New Glenn 9x4 (in a few years?) will get closer to Starship payloads, but I still think the only direct competition between the two will be for the rare payloads that need a big fairing.

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  • [–] 2 points 11 months ago* (1 child)

    I bet starship is a long way from actual service. Hence trying to cash in on some bullshit hype train

    It sounds as though their AI satellites are contingent on the Starlink V3 design, which in turn rely on Starship to launch them, as the sat bus is too large for Falcon 9.

    Relevant Elon tweet: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1998872465087541752

    Starlink V3 will be 20kW and launched at scale around Q4 next year. No problem to scale that to >100kW if the satellite mass is shifted towards solar arrays and radiators for AI compute, instead of giant phased array antennas for Internet connectivity.

    As you mention, it would use the same laser comms system as Starlink to connect to Starlink.

    An AI satellite is easier, not harder, than the Starlink V3 design, which is a marvel of engineering created by an epic team of humans. I am so proud of the @SpaceX team.

    If they think Starship is a long way from actual service, pursuing AI satellites is a strange move, as it seems these satellites would be dependent on Starship to launch them.

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  • [–] 2 points 11 months ago

    pursuing AI satellites is a strange move,

    My theory is that it's total bullshit. Why put Ai in space? It solves the power problem with solar, but it makes the heat problem way worse. So why, exactly are Ai space satellites a good idea? What need does it solve, aside from using their infrastructure for something 'hip' and 'cool'? I think Elon is talking out his ass and setting bullshit timeliness to complete buzzword investment bait. 'Space ai' is solar roads.

    Of course, I could be absolutely wrong and I'll have to wait till Q4 to see if we have space factories and data centers. Going to be an action packed year with all the starships making orbit and doing orbital refueling and going around the moon and all the other bullshit he's promised.

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