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[–] 72 points 11 months ago (20 children)

Not saying bikes aren't the most dangerous, but comparing against the distance skews this. A plane trip is usually quite a bit longer than any other.

Not sure how else to measure it though, maybe against number of trips traveled?

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  • [–] 17 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

    Go go gadget spitball math!


    Sources for average transit mode speed

    Source 1:

    https://www.gigacalculator.com/articles/what-is-the-average-speed-of-different-modes-of-transportation/

    These are the average speeds of some common modes of transportation:

    Commercial passenger aircraft: 547 to 575 miles per hour
    Private jet: 400 to 711 miles per hour
    Europe high-speed rail: 155 to 217 miles per hour
    Shinkansen (Japanese bullet trains): 150 to 200 miles per hour
    Modern cruise ship: 23 to 27 miles per hour
    Bicycle: 10 to 24 miles per hour
    Sailboat: 4.5 to 7 miles per hour
    Walking: 3 miles per hour
    

    Source 2:

    https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Average-travel-speeds-in-each-survey-year-and-standardized-mode-speed_tbl1_338604360

    Source 3:

    https://wonderlearning.blog/real-average-speed-us-train-facts

    When people think of passenger trains, they often envision swift, efficient travel. However, the operational reality for Amtrak, the primary passenger rail operator in the United States, is far more nuanced. While its locomotives are capable of impressive speeds, the average journey speed for most passengers is surprisingly modest, often hovering between 50 and 60 miles per hour, with long-distance routes averaging even less.


    Ok, I'm USAsian, gonna be US-centric, and I'm gonna make some spitball roundings for easier math:

    Average Actual Travel Speed:

    Motorcycle: 50 mph

    Car: 50 mph

    Ferry: 25 mph

    Train: 50 mph (long/medium distance)

    Bus: 25 mph

    Subway/Lightrail: 25 mph

    Aircraft: 550 mph


    Attempt at Conveying Math Proof

    So we have:

    D = deaths per billion miles. S = speed in miles per hour.

    If we first solve for and find the time taken to travel one billion miles at speed S, we would do:

    T = 1,000,000,000​ / S

    (T is time in hours)

    What we want is D / T

    D / T = D / ( 1,000,000,000 / S)

    ->

    D / T = (D * S) / 1,000,000,000

    So, that's our rough conversion.


    Using (D * S) / 1,000,000,000 , the OP graph becomes:

    Deaths per hour of transit, by transit mode, for every billion miles travelled:

    Motorcycles: 10,628.5

    Car: 364

    Ferry: 79.25

    Train: 21.5

    Subway/Lightrail: 6

    Bus: 2.75

    Aircraft: 38.5

    So... thats basically deaths per billion hours spent using said transit mode.


    Notes

    You may have noticed that Aircraft are now more dangerous than Buses, Subways, med/long distance Trains, and are only ~2x safer than Ferries, not ~45x times safer, as they are with the OP metric.

    One hour of Motorcycles transit, on the other hand, is now ~29x more deadly than an hour of car transit, ~276x more deadly than an hour of aircraft transit...

    ... as opposed to the OP metric, where a billion miles of motorcycle travel is again ~29x more deadly than a billion miles of car travel, but is ~3039x more deadly than a billion miles of aircraft travel.


    tl;dr:

    Basically, take travel speed into account, and aircraft become significantly more deadly per hour spent travelling in them, but the ratios between terrestrial and aquatic craft stay pretty similar, due to no one having yet proposed the ikranoplan as a mass transit solution.

    (Historically minded readers may note the absence from these numbers of the 'revolutionary' hyperloop, as well as monorail, due to basically not fucking existing in real life.)

    You may quibble about the actual average speeds of various transit modes as you please.


    More Notes

    Probably also worth noting that this is only deaths, not injuries, say, requiring hospitalization.

    I imagine doing deaths + serious injuries would also change this graph significantly.

    Also also, this doesn't take into account road rage that does not directly involve the vehicle, I don't think.

    It does not include injuries or deaths on some form of public or mass transit where say, you get assaulted by another passenger, or something like that.

    That could also tweak things, potentially, but I have no strong instinct about if it would really matter, or how... and, you could again do deaths vs deaths + serious injuries.


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  • [–] 9 points 11 months ago (15 children)

    My thought exactly, walking per distance is probably the most deadly mode of transport

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  • [–] 17 points 11 months ago (9 children)

    [X] Doubt

    Walking is what we evolved to do. While being a pedestrian in certain parts of cities is dangerous, tons of walking is done away from vehicles.

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  • [–] 19 points 11 months ago (8 children)

    Maybe depends on where you are living, but you quite probably have the wrong impression.

    In my country (Germany), less than 3000 people die each year in traffic overall, while already an estimated 4000 pedestrians die while simply using stairs.

    So, "Stairway to Heaven" gains a whole different layer of meaning, as it seems... :-)

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  • [–] 1 point 11 months ago

    I would expect that pedestrian walk far less distance than cars drive, so even a twofold difference in absolute numbers will disappear when normalised by distance. For instance there is a general advice of walking 10k paces every day which is about 7km, average car speed in the city should be around 30km/h, so even if we assume 30 minutes of commute every day (and this is too generous, I believe) it will be more than two times the distance people (should) walk

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  • [–] 0 points 11 months ago (5 children)

    I don't think people commonly refer to people using the stairs as being pedestrians.

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  • [–] 5 points 11 months ago (3 children)

    Thread started from ‘walking’, not from being a pedestrian, and stairs usually require exactly walking

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  • [–] 2 points 11 months ago* (4 children)

    My guess would be parachuting/skydiving/wing-gliding.

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  • [–] 4 points 11 months ago (3 children)

    Parachuting/skydiving is incredibly low risk compared to the average person's perception. The us had 9 deaths last year in 3.8 million skydives.

    Wing suit usage has a similar number, IF you don't include base jumpers, which you shouldn't, because it's fundamentally a very, very different sport that happens to use (almost) the same equipment. You wouldn't include each bump in a nascar race as an accident and lump it into driving statistics, I would hope, nor do the same for people hiking in the woods and people fist fighting bears in the woods.

    Considering I travel a mile or two, give or take, on each canopy flight when I jump, that's 9 deaths in ~8 million miles. Wing suits have a much better glide ratio when flying, so that would change things up as well. I'm curious how that would hold up to walking. Using the other feller's number of 4000 pedestrian deaths (on stairs) in germany, and estimating they walk 3 miles a day in a country of ~83 million, that's 249 million miles, giving us 1.6x10^-5, while skydiving is 2.4x10^-6.

    But really... who would consider those activities as a mode of transport anyway?

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  • [–] 2 points 11 months ago (2 children)

    Huh, well I am apparently wrong then.

    Thanks for the correction!

    As to who would consider them a mode of transportation... ... James Bond? Ethan Hunt?

    lol, it was meant as a joke.

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  • [–] 1 point 11 months ago

    Found some data on this. Certainly not a common way of measuring this. Looks like at least one of these is fatality by mode and doesn't take into account total percent of trips.

    Doesn't appear to change anything. Flying remains the safest. Motorcycles remain the most dangerous.

    Make sure to sign your donor cards!

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