Also, the part about chips burning out faster than expected will become a real problem in a few years. You need rare earths to produce chips, and China has an effective monopoly on refining them. China will obviously prioritize its own domestic use. As Chinese companies continue to ramp up production of chips, solar panels, EVs, and so on, there will be less and less available for export. Even if the government wanted to help the US for some reason, it would be politically impossible for them to say they will starve their own industries to supply the US.

Meanwhile, even under the most aggressive diversification scenarios, China is projected to maintain around 80% of global refining capacity all the way through 2040s. So once the current supply of chips burns out, it is not clear how new ones will be made outside of China.